Daily Pitcher Breakdown: September 5th

by PSporer Last Updated 2014-09-05 23:04:17

The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
h3. PLATINUM BUYS:
These are aces who don’t really need much explanation at all. They’re expensive, but awesome. If an ace-level arm is struggling a bit or has a tough matchup, he might fall into the gold or silver tiers, but otherwise you’re going to find the Kershaws, Hernandez, and Sales of the world in here.

Chris Sale CWS (at CLE)

Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (at TEX)

Stephen Strasburg WAS (v. PHI) – The inconsistency is annoying, but the upside is still sky-high.

GOLD BUYS:

These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.

Matt Shoemaker LAA (at MIN) – He’s certainly been pitching like a Platinum arm of late riding a 23.3-scoreless IP streak stretch over three full starts and part of a fourth. He enjoyed a brilliant August that saw him post a 1.31 ERA in 41.3 IP with six starts and a three-inning relief appearance (that 19 inn. gm v. BOS, which he won). In fact, he was almost as sharp in July. He’s got a 1.98 ERA in 63.7 IP since that 8 ER shellacking in KC back on June 27th. Good luck, Minnesota.

Alex Cobb TB (v. BAL) – Over his last 11, he’s been Platinum-like with a 1.83 ERA and 72 Ks in 68.7 IP of work, but this matchup is scary enough that I didn’t feel completely confident with him in the highest tier. At least this matchup is at home, where Cobb had a 7 IP/1 R (unearned) effort against the O’s on June 18th, but he has a pair of 5 IP of fewer outings against them in Baltimore.

Mike Fiers MIL (v. STL) – Boy do they need Fiers more than ever tonight. He did pretty well his last time out (7 IP/3 ER with 9 Ks), but the offense couldn’t back him breaking his four-game winning streak. The Cards offense has definitely been better since the start of August, but they still aren’t anything close to a juggernaut.

Jeff Samardzija OAK (v. HOU) – We talked in this space about not worrying when Shark was blasted by the Mets and he’s reeled off two huge starts since including one against these Astros, who he now faces for the fourth time with Oakland. He has two big 8 IP efforts and then a modest 6.7 IP/4 ER that was saved by 7 Ks.

SILVER BUYS:

On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.

James Shields KC (at NYY) – Shields has been fantastic in his last 11 starts with a 2.51 ERA and 4.1 K:BB ratio in 75.3 IP (though only 58 Ks), but his only bad start was a 6.7 IP/6 ER dud against NYY. Mind you he had been quite sharp through six when it fell apart in the seventh with four runs on five hits. If I have any real concern, it’s the ballpark more than their recent success against him as he has been a bit homer-prone at times this year and has a 1.5 HR/9 in Yankee Stadium.

Michael Pineda NYY (v. KC) – The only thing keeping Pineda from the Gold tier right now is that the strikeouts just aren’t there right now. He has a sparkling 2.31 ERA in four starts since returning from the DL, but just 15 Ks in 23.3 IP. That said, the highest of those was a 5 K game against these very same Royals, who are the league’s toughest team to strike out. A win could definitely help smooth over some strikeout deficiencies, but that’s far from guaranteed with KC’s ace on the mound.

John Lackey STL (at MIL) – Lackey still has that Baltimore massacre (9 ER) inflating his ERA with St. Louis (4.23), but he’s been strong in his other five starts which includes a 7 IP/2 ER handling of the Brewers when he first came over. Few, if any, teams are playing worse than Milwaukee right now, but that doesn’t mean they can be treated like a Padres or Mets kind of matchup.

Rick Porcello DET (v. SF) – Porcello finally got some strikeouts (7), but he allowed 11 hits and six runs (though only three earned) in the process. That didn’t stop Porcello from a huge month, though. Thanks to a relief appearance in that 19-inning affair with Toronto, he ended up with seven decisions (3-4) that included more losses than he deserved with a 2.70 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 6.2 K:BB ratio in 46.7 IP. The month included his third shutout of the year as well as a pair of eight-inning outings. Seattle was the only team that got him out before the seventh inning. While his strikeout totals have been light for the year, he’s done enough everywhere else to maintain significant value, even on the daily landscape.

Wei-Yin Chen BAL (at TB) – Chen could’ve had a huge August if not for a 0 K game against the Rays on August 26th. He fanned at least six in his other four outings and still ended up with 34 in 38 IP. The Rays ran up Chen’s count with a bunch of hits and three walks in 4.7 IP despite only two runs (both earned). His big run pumped up his price to a level where I don’t love him as much anymore, but I’d still use him in some cases.

VALUE PLAYS:

These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.

Alfredo Simon CIN (v. NYM) – Simon has gotten back on track in his last two outings, but his price has plummeted into a buying opportunity after a bunch of mediocrity or worse in his previous seven starts. He had a 5.40 ERA in those seven starts before these last two outings, both of which were solid seven-inning outings. The curveball and slider abandoned him during that seven-start run so he was left to lean on his fastball and splitter predominantly (81% of his pitches, 70% in first 18 starts). Both have been markedly better in these last two starts as have the fastball and splitter (all four pitches yielding OPS totals under .700). The Mets sit just 25th in OPS against righties on the year and it hasn’t been any better since the break (26th overall)

Vidal Nuno ARI (at LAD) – It looks this trade has been a win-win for the clubs as Nuno has definitely held up his end of the bargain despite a 0-4 record. He has delivered a more-than-respectable 3.23 ERA in his 10 starts along with a sparkling 0.93 WHIP in the 61.3 innings of work. He’s walking way fewer (from 3.0 BB/9 with NYY to 1.8 with ARI) and striking out a couple more (from 6.9 to 7.2) en route to a tremendous 4.1 K:BB ratio. Since allowing five earned in four innings against KC, he’s gone on a great four-start run yielding a 2.25 ERA and 6.0 K:BB ratio in 28 IP. The Dodgers have languished in the bottom 10 of OPS against lefties all year long, currently sitting 23rd with a .686 mark.

Jarred Cosart MIA (v. ATL) – It’s still tough to fully buy in on Cosart when he gets on these runs of success despite weak component numbers. Last year I think they could’ve been termed “pathetically weak” as he had a sub-1.0 K:BB ratio. With Miami he has a 2.4 K:BB ratio, but it’s driven by a 1.9 BB9 as he’s missing fewer bats than he did with Houston (4.6 K9, after a 5.8 K9 with HOU). All that said, it’s really hard not to be at least somewhat impressed with his last four starts. He’s gone more than seven in three of them, allowing just two runs in 27.7 IP. That includes seven-shutout-innings against the Braves his last time out with five strikeouts. A repeat would be brilliant at his modest cost.

STAYAWAYS:

These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.

• Allen Webster BOS (v. TOR)

• Ricky Nolasco MIN (v. LAA)

• Eric Stults SD (at COL)

• Jerome Williams PHI (at WAS)

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against