Daily Pitcher Breakdown: September 8th

by PSporer Last Updated 2014-09-09 06:23:30

The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

Monday, September 8th

PITCHER	TEAM	OPP	Seas	L14	H/A	Avg	Seas	L7	L/R	H/A	Avg	FP/Opp	PEN	PARK	ML	OppR
Jered Weaver	LAA	CLE	10.5	12.0	8.1	10.2	0.61	0.69	0.46	0.58	0.58	17.59	2	0.96	-102	4.05
Danny Salazar	CLE	LAA	10.4	17.0	11.4	12.9	0.59	0.50	0.48	0.58	0.54	24.02	14	0.96	-108	3.95
Jeremy Guthrie	KCR	DET	8.8	6.5	9.6	8.3	0.55	0.43	0.39	0.54	0.48	17.44	26	1.03	130	4.86
Justin Verlander	DET	KCR	9.6	12.6	9.1	10.4	0.63	0.72	0.48	0.61	0.61	17.06	17	1.03	-140	4.14
Mike Minor	ATL	WAS	9.3	12.1	7.7	9.7	0.52	0.37	0.48	0.54	0.48	20.25	1	1.05	135	4.09
Doug Fister	WAS	ATL	10.7	4.1	12.8	9.2	0.58	0.66	0.46	0.55	0.56	16.31	13	1.05	-145	3.41
Jeff Locke	PIT	PHI	9.2	7.6	8.7	8.5	0.60	0.65	0.40	0.63	0.57	14.92	6	0.91	-120	4.09
Kyle Kendrick	PHI	PIT	7.7	12.5	8.9	9.7	0.53	0.60	0.39	0.54	0.52	18.84	2	0.91	110	4.41
Jacob Turner	CHC	TOR	4.9	9.0	4.8	6.2	0.53	0.54	0.41	0.52	0.50	12.46	4	1.04	165	4.85
Marcus Stroman	TOR	CHC	8.4	14.1	10.2	10.9	0.61	0.67	0.51	0.58	0.59	18.43	21	1.04	-175	3.65
Jordan Lyles	COL	NYM	8.6	6.6	9.7	8.3	0.63	0.95	0.49	0.80	0.72	11.51	30	0.85	135	3.82
Jonathon Niese	NYM	COL	9.3	8.6	9.6	9.1	0.54	0.89	0.37	0.57	0.59	15.46	27	0.85	-145	3.18
Miguel Gonzalez	BAL	BOS	9.3	18.5	10.0	12.6	0.58	0.61	0.48	0.58	0.56	22.40	15	1.05	-115	4.38
Joe Kelly	BOS	BAL	7.6	10.6	8.3	8.8	0.53	0.60	0.41	0.51	0.52	17.07	8	1.05	105	4.62
Shelby Miller	STL	CIN	8.1	10.0	6.9	8.3	0.54	0.58	0.40	0.60	0.53	15.68	22	0.96	-127	3.79
Dylan Axelrod	CIN	STL	11.3	11.5		11.4	0.53	0.47	0.39	0.50	0.47	24.30	29	0.96	117	4.21
Sonny Gray	OAK	CWS	11.4	5.5	9.4	8.8	0.61	0.46	0.48	0.67	0.56	15.82	10	1.05	-159	3.54
Hector Noesi	CWS	OAK	7.3	11.5	7.5	8.8	0.57	0.37	0.46	0.57	0.49	17.86	18	1.05	149	4.46
Brad Penny	MIA	MIL	0.0	1.0		0.5	0.55	0.71	0.44	0.61	0.58	0.87	8	0.96	170	4.88
Yovani Gallardo	MIL	MIA	9.4	5.0	8.9	7.8	0.59	0.38	0.45	0.56	0.50	15.67	20	0.96	-180	3.62
Brad Peacock	HOU	SEA	6.9	11.6	3.6	7.4	0.57	0.71	0.43	0.59	0.57	12.83	25	0.88	230	4.02
Felix Hernandez	SEA	HOU	14.5	9.0	15.3	12.9	0.54	0.59	0.44	0.57	0.53	24.27	4	0.88	-260	2.48
Odrisamer Despaigne	SDP	LAD	9.1	12.5	6.4	9.3	0.46	0.31	0.36	0.48	0.40	23.14	12	0.96	140	4.16
Clayton Kershaw	LAD	SDP	17.7	20.5	18.8	19.0	0.60	0.58	0.43	0.62	0.56	34.16	19	0.96	-160	3.34

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.

PLATINUM BUYS: These are aces who don’t really need much explanation at all. They’re expensive, but awesome. If an ace-level arm is struggling a bit or has a tough matchup, he might fall into the gold or silver tiers, but otherwise you’re going to find the Kershaws, Hernandez, and Sales of the world in here.

Clayton Kershaw LAD (v. SD)

Felix Hernandez SEA (v. HOU)

GOLD BUYS:

These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.

Marcus Stroman TOR (v. CHC) – Volatility has plagued Stroman since the start of August, but his highs are still excellent. The Cubs have been more impressive offensively (9th in OPS v. RHP since the break), but their 25% strikeout rate is easily the league’s highest. They are still scoring just 3.7 runs per game since the break, too. Stroman could definitely have a huge game here.

Mike Minor ATL (at WAS) – Minor made some adjustments to his pitch grips and they have paid off in spades. He has looked like the 2013 version in his last five with a 2.52 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 35.7 IP with 29 Ks and a 3.2 K:BB ratio. He’s keeping the ball in the yard again with a 0.7 HR9 in these last five after a 1.7 HR9 in his first 17.

Doug Fister WAS (v. ATL) – Fister hasn’t been at his best lately, allowing 10 hits in each of his last two and 51 in his last 45 IP. That said, he does still have a 2.60 ERA in that same 45-inning span. He’s already lagging in strikeouts so the elevated hit count is tougher to swallow, but this matchup is tough to ignore. The Braves hitting has been miserable recently, sitting 25th in OPS against righties since the All-Star break and 28th since September 1st with a horrific .559 OPS. Fister hit ‘em for eight shutout innings last time he saw ‘em, too.

SILVER BUYS:

On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.

Yovani Gallardo MIL (v. MIA) – Gallardo wasted a great matchup with a trip to the Cubs his last time out, but I think he bounces back against Miami tonight. Just don’t let Stanton beat you. Actually, I think Stanton hits a homer every time I tell a pitcher that so maybe you should roster him instead of Gallardo tonight. Miami has the second-highest strikeout rate against righties since the break and their .700 OPS is just 13th-best.

Jon Niese NYM (v. COL) – Niese has been too hittable over the last month, allowing 56 in 47 IP, but this is a great matchup. The Rockies are already terrible on the road, but they don’t hit lefties too well, either. Someone like Corey Dickerson is immediately neutralized with a lefty on the mound (assuming he even plays) while Charlie Blackmon doesn’t have a huge platoon split, but he’s a nightmare on the road (.605 OPS). Niese leverages his favorable stadium with a markedly better ERA at home (3.12 compared to 4.05 on the road) and much better component numbers.

Sonny Gray OAK (at CWS) – Gray hasn’t been terribly sharp of late with 58 base runners in his last 37 IP (1.57 WHIP) and an ugly 5.84 ERA. Mix that in with a tough matchup and I’m a bit down on Gray today. The White Sox haven’t been consistently tough on opposing pitchers, but they have an explosive offense that can unload, particularly at home. They’ve been freezing with just two runs in three games against Cleveland so hopefully Gray can keep that going, but I’m not terribly confident in this particular start.

VALUE PLAYS:

These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.

Miguel Gonzalez BAL (at BOS) – Gonzalez was pummeled for 7 ER by Detroit in his season opener, but he hasn’t allowed more than 4 ER in a single start since and he’s only allowed 4 twice. He has a 2.98 ERA in those 132.7 IP and he’s been even better lately with a 2.11 ERA in 47 IP since the break. He isn’t a huge strikeout guy (6.4 K9 for the season), but he does have eight outings of 6+ Ks including a season-high eight in his last outing (a shutout v. CIN).

Odrisamer Despaigne SD (at LAD) – Despaigne has impressed quite a bit in his last five starts with a 3.00 ERA and some useful component numbers to back it up including a 7.8 K9 and 5.2 K:BB ratio in 30 IP. He’s already rolled the Dodgers once this year with a 7 IP/2 ER gem in LA back on July 10th. The Dodgers offense has been on the fritz for most of the second half with a .669 OPS against righties since August 1st (22nd in the league).

STAYAWAYS: These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.

Brad Penny MIA (at MIL)

Brad Peacock HOU (at SEA)