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Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Thursday, Sep 18th

by PSporer Last Updated 2014-09-18 23:12:56

The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher TM OPP IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Martinez TEX OAK 122.1 4.93 5.26 1.55 27.3% 12.6% 9.6% 1.32 0.73
Gray OAK TEX 198 3.18 3.67 1.21 60.0% 19.8% 8.4% 0.64 2.12
Dickey TOR NYY 196.2 3.84 4.03 1.26 47.6% 19.2% 8.1% 1.10 1.16
Greene NYY TOR 68.1 3.56 3.36 1.39 100.0% 23.3% 8.0% 1.05 1.83
Workman BOS PIT 82 5.27 4.33 1.39 25.0% 18.1% 9.3% 1.10 1.06
Cole PIT BOS 117 3.92 3.50 1.29 28.6% 22.4% 7.7% 0.85 1.53
Fister WAS MIA 148.1 2.55 3.97 1.13 58.3% 14.5% 3.6% 1.03 1.42
Hand MIA WAS 99 4.36 4.46 1.35 33.3% 14.4% 8.5% 0.91 1.49
Greinke LAD CHC 184.1 2.64 2.87 1.15 50.0% 25.5% 5.5% 0.88 1.69
Wada CHC LAD 59.1 3.34 3.96 1.20 19.4% 6.9% 0.91 0.89
Salazar CLE HOU 98 4.22 3.42 1.38 12.5% 24.5% 7.4% 1.19 0.83
Feldman HOU CLE 166.1 3.95 4.34 1.33 47.1% 14.0% 6.4% 0.87 1.47
Lohse MIL STL 182 3.81 4.04 1.21 50.0% 17.5% 5.8% 1.09 1.00
Miller STL MIL 172.2 3.75 4.73 1.28 21.1% 16.0% 9.9% 1.04 0.94
Nuno ARI COL 151.1 4.58 4.03 1.24 18.8% 18.4% 6.5% 1.43 0.90
Flande COL ARI 49.2 5.07 3.92 1.27 13.2% 6.9% 0.72 2.63
Hernandez SEA LAA 219 2.14 2.55 0.92 81.0% 26.6% 4.9% 0.62 2.07
Weaver LAA SEA 200.1 3.50 4.22 1.20 52.4% 18.8% 7.4% 1.08 0.68
Kendrick PHI SDP 187 4.72 4.38 1.35 30.0% 14.4% 6.3% 1.16 1.25
Erlin SDP PHI 49.2 4.89 3.81 1.35 37.5% 18.5% 5.2% 0.91 1.07

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.

PLATINUM BUYS:

These are aces who don’t really need much explanation at all. They’re expensive, but awesome. If an ace-level arm is struggling a bit or has a tough matchup, he might fall into the gold or silver tiers, but otherwise you’re going to find the Kershaws, Hernandez, and Sales of the world in here.

Felix Hernandez SEA (at LAA)
Zack Greinke LAD (at CHC)
Gerrit Cole PIT (v. BOS)

GOLD BUYS:

These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.

Danny Salazar CLE (at HOU) – A short slate plus an amazing matchup landed Salazar in this tier. He has been mostly great since returning to the majors. He has a 3.30 ERA and 56 Ks in 57.3 IP of work in his 10 starts. The volatility is still there, though, and it’s tied to the problem he’s had throughout his short MLB career: homers. He’s only allowed five in those 10 starts, but he allowed two in each of his two worst starts since returning (4 IP/5 ER, 4.7 IP/6 ER). He allowed just one earned in six innings against the Astros back on August 23rd with seven strikeouts and just five baserunners allowed.

Shelby Miller STL (v. MIL) – I didn’t really expect to see Miller back in the value plays this year let alone the gold tier, but he’s been quite good lately with five straight quality starts and just 1 ER allowed in his last three. The lack of huge options definitely boosted him a tier like it did with Salazar, but Miller has just improved across the board. His curveball is back and that is the key. He was using it 17% of the time through mid-August with an .818 OPS-against. In his last five, he’s using it 30% of the time with just a .479 OPS-against.

SILVER BUYS:

On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.

R.A. Dickey TOR (at NYY) – Dickey has been pretty mediocre this year on the whole (3.84 ERA), though he has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 18 of his 31 starts. Three of those have come in his last four as he’s posted a 2.33 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 27 IP with 21 Ks and a 3.0 K:BB ratio. He’s actually only seen the Yankees once this year and he handled them for 6.7 scoreless innings, but that was alllll the way back on April 5th. They are a completely different team at this point, of course. His durability is a huge part of his value as he’s averaging over 6.3 IP per start and he’s gone fewer than 5 IP just once.

Shane Greene NYY (v. TOR) – I’ve been fawning over Greene quite a bit lately and he’s been pretty great except when he faces Boston. He’s allowed 12 runs (9 earned) in 7.7 IP against them in three appearances (two starts) with nine strikeouts and eight walks. He doesn’t have a large sample of work (12 starts) so parsing it too much can be dangerous, but his strikeouts have really ramped up in the latter half with 41 Ks in 31 IP although the strikeouts might be keeping him from going deep. He’s gone 6+ just twice in these last six. Of course if you fan nine in 5.3 IP as Greene did his last time out, you can still post an impressive score.

VALUE PLAYS:

These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.

Kyle Lohse MIL (at STL) – I don’t really know what happened to Lohse down the stretch. He was en route to a brilliant season, especially given his scant cost at the draft table, but a nightmare stretch in August and early-September (6.88 ERA in seven starts) has raised his ERA about three-quarters of a run from 3.07 to 3.81. St. Louis has ripped him twice in that run so this is a gamble, but his price has absolutely plummeted and I’m still looking at a guy who had a 3.07 ERA through his first 22 starts and unless he’s hiding injury or just super-fatigued, I think he can bounce back and offer big value at low cost.

Brad Hand MIA (v. WAS) – OK, this one is a lineup-dependent. I doubt that Washington will run out the full hangover lineup they did yesterday, but if they sit a few starts again tonight, you might consider using a dirt-cheap Hand. He hasn’t been too bad since returning to the majors back on July 3rd. After amassing a 6.38 ERA in 16 appearances through May, he has posted a 3.72 ERA in 75 IP over 14 appearances (12 starts). His component numbers aren’t particularly special (4.9 K9, 2.1 K:BB ratio), but at his price you just need 5-6 solid innings (2-4 ER). His upside is probably a solid silver day (6 IP, 2 ER, 4 Ks… something like that).

STAYAWAYS:

These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher wOBA vs L ERA vs L wOBA vs R ERA vs R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Martinez 0.390 4.92 0.333 4.94 0.249 0.714 0.299 5.27 0.283 82.31 12.6%
Gray 0.292 2.90 0.276 3.53 0.249 0.665 0.275 3.54 0.229 100.10 19.8%
Dickey 0.307 3.03 0.325 4.47 0.241 0.681 0.270 4.31 0.236 104.68 19.2%
Greene 0.340 2.91 0.310 4.19 0.266 0.760 0.328 3.91 0.263 90.38 23.3%
Workman 0.337 4.53 0.311 6.29 0.260 0.745 0.289 4.39 0.253 74.11 18.1%
Cole 0.333 2.95 0.321 4.88 0.242 0.673 0.312 3.65 0.252 99.26 22.4%
Fister 0.319 2.51 0.273 2.58 0.248 0.699 0.271 3.99 0.251 98.35 14.5%
Hand 0.280 3.68 0.339 4.65 0.268 0.727 0.279 4.32 0.254 53.80 14.4%
Greinke 0.282 2.20 0.300 3.02 0.233 0.670 0.308 3.02 0.243 100.10 25.5%
Wada 0.173 0.69 0.345 4.08 0.240 0.694 0.276 3.83 0.237 88.91 19.4%
Salazar 0.314 3.58 0.345 4.62 0.230 0.671 0.336 3.78 0.269 93.00 24.5%
Feldman 0.321 2.98 0.333 5.03 0.256 0.732 0.299 4.17 0.271 102.00 14.0%
Lohse 0.323 4.27 0.305 3.41 0.255 0.688 0.279 4.07 0.249 96.83 17.5%
Miller 0.315 4.37 0.306 3.24 0.257 0.719 0.254 4.56 0.232 89.70 16.0%
Nuno 0.274 3.05 0.341 5.10 0.274 0.790 0.274 4.56 0.249 82.24 18.4%
Flande 0.237 4.86 0.357 5.18 0.246 0.684 0.285 3.99 0.259 58.08 13.2%
Hernandez 0.233 1.08 0.264 3.56 0.258 0.724 0.259 2.59 0.2 102.29 26.6%
Weaver 0.314 3.61 0.278 3.33 0.244 0.691 0.265 4.13 0.234 98.25 18.8%
Kendrick 0.359 5.42 0.319 4.21 0.228 0.638 0.291 4.52 0.269 97.47 14.4%
Erlin 0.302 4.91 0.355 4.89 0.242 0.687 0.329 3.58 0.281 80.60 18.5%

About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.