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Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tue, Sep 23

by PSporer Last Updated 2014-09-23 23:16:50

The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher TM OPP IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Jimenez BAL NYY 119.1 4.9 4.63 1.54 27.80% 20.90% 14.00% 1.06 1.18
McCarthy NYY BAL 194.2 3.93 3.03 1.25 35.00% 20.60% 4.10% 1.02 2.16
Colon NYM WAS 190.1 4.02 3.7 1.21 42.10% 18.00% 3.20% 0.99 1
Roark WAS NYM 192.1 2.85 3.89 1.1 52.60% 17.70% 5.00% 0.75 1.11
Ventura KCR CLE 172 3.19 3.89 1.28 44.40% 20.10% 8.70% 0.68 1.52
Salazar CLE KCR 105.1 4.02 3.33 1.34 12.50% 25.00% 7.10% 1.11 0.83
Hernandez SEA TOR 226 2.07 2.5 0.91 81.00% 27.10% 4.90% 0.6 2.12
Dickey TOR SEA 202.2 3.82 4.04 1.25 47.60% 19.10% 8.00% 1.11 1.14
Carroll CWS DET 120.1 5.01 4.62 1.51 33.30% 10.30% 7.70% 0.97 2.04
Price DET CWS 232.1 3.37 2.71 1.09 52.40% 26.90% 3.80% 0.97 1.1
Fiers MIL CIN 60.2 1.78 2.8 0.84 29.00% 6.60% 0.59 0.8
Cueto CIN MIL 227.2 2.33 3.18 0.98 76.20% 25.30% 7.10% 0.79 1.34
Cole PIT ATL 124 3.85 3.42 1.27 28.60% 22.60% 7.30% 0.8 1.56
Wood ATL PIT 165 2.78 3.13 1.13 58.30% 24.60% 6.50% 0.82 1.36
Cobb TBR BOS 153.1 2.82 3.26 1.12 42.90% 22.50% 7.20% 0.53 1.98
Buchholz BOS TBR 156.2 5.29 4.07 1.41 33.30% 17.90% 7.60% 0.98 1.35
Hamels PHI MIA 189.2 2.47 3.3 1.18 58.80% 24.20% 7.40% 0.62 1.43
Alvarez MIA PHI 172.1 2.82 3.6 1.24 50.00% 14.90% 4.50% 0.68 2.39
Miller STL CHC 178.2 3.68 4.68 1.26 21.10% 16.00% 9.50% 1.01 0.98
Hendricks CHC STL 75 2.28 4.08 1.08 14.30% 4.70% 0.36 1.5
Oberholtzer HOU TEX 139.1 4.39 4.25 1.34 41.70% 15.20% 4.30% 0.71 0.86
Martinez TEX HOU 128 4.85 5.33 1.53 27.30% 12.40% 9.80% 1.27 0.7
Chafin ARI MIN 11 1.64 5.44 1.09 11.60% 14.00% 0 2.13
Gibson MIN ARI 165 4.64 4.27 1.34 52.60% 13.30% 7.70% 0.6 2.13
LeBlanc LAA OAK 22.1 5.24 3.77 1.25 17.90% 6.30% 0.81 1.12
Gray OAK LAA 203 3.28 3.67 1.23 60.00% 19.70% 8.40% 0.62 2.15
Bumgarner SFG LAD 210 2.91 2.97 1.1 47.60% 25.30% 5.10% 0.77 1.26
Greinke LAD SFG 189.1 2.76 2.88 1.17 50.00% 25.40% 5.40% 0.86 1.69
De La Rosa COL SDP 178.1 4.14 4.07 1.22 40.00% 17.80% 8.50% 1.06 1.63
Erlin SDP COL 55.2 4.53 3.72 1.29 37.50% 18.40% 4.70% 0.81 1.21

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.

PLATINUM BUYS:

These are aces who don’t really need much explanation at all. They’re expensive, but awesome. If an ace-level arm is struggling a bit or has a tough matchup, he might fall into the gold or silver tiers, but otherwise you’re going to find the Kershaws, Hernandez, and Sales of the world in here.

BIGGEST PLATINUM DAY EVER!

Cole Hamels PHI (at MIA)
Felix Hernandez SEA (at TOR)
Johnny Cueto CIN (v. MIL)
Madison Bumgarner SF (at LAD)
David Price DET (v. CWS)
Mike Fiers MIL (at CIN)
Alex Cobb TB (at BOS)
Zack Greinke LAD (v. SF)
Alex Wood ATL (v. PIT)

GOLD BUYS:

gerrit-cole-300x200

These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.

Gerrit Cole PIT (at ATL) – Don’t let the 3.79 ERA fool you, he’s been excellent in his last three with 21 Ks and just one walk in 19 IP, albeit against the Cubs twice and Red Sox once. That said, are the Braves really hitting any better than either of those teams right now? Actually, we don’t need to ask rhetorically, we can find the answer and the Braves have actually been worse than both clubs in the second half. Their .625 OPS against righties since the break is baseball’s second worst (CIN .606) while Boston sits 26th (.652) and the Cubs are up at 14th (.690) with their infusion of young talent. Since returning from the DL, Cole has fanned fewer than six just once, with a high of nine during that stretch.

Tanner Roark WAS (v. NYM) – Roark doesn’t have huge strikeout totals, but that hasn’t stopped him from having a brilliant season both for the Nationals and for fantasy gamers. Though he lacks the missed bats, he goes deep into games and puts up tremendous ratios. He has gone fewer than six innings just once in his last 15 and just six times in 30 starts all season. His ERA has been below 3.00 since June 6th. He keeps the ball on the ground and in the yard and when runners do reach, he often strands them. He had a 79.8% LOB rate last year, but it was tough to trust in just 53.7 IP. However he’s matched that figure again this year in 192.3 IP. He has allowed just 2 ER in each of his three starts against NYM this year (3.12 ERA in 17.3 IP).

Brandon McCarthy NYY (v. BAL) – This is a tough matchup for anyone, but McCarthy has been too good to ignore even in light of strong opposition. His home run issues from Arizona have only popped up once with the Yankees (3 HR in TOR) yielding a 0.7 HR/9, which has helped him to a 2.54 ERA in 85 IP with them. His numbers have been ace-level with NYY, yet he’s priced more like a silver tier option. If you don’t want to invest in any of the several super-expensive arms available, you can take a shot on McCarthy as I don’t expect him to be too heavily used.

Shelby Miller STL (at CHC) – I didn’t expect to put Miller back on this list in 2014, except maybe as a stayaway. The curveball had abandoned him and he was relegated to essentially one pitch which made life difficult for quite a while (5.07 ERA for a three month span from May 23rd to August 23rd). The return of the curve has yielded a 1.09 ERA over his last five starts and while he only has 21 Ks (5.7 K9), he also has a 4.2 K:BB ratio. The curveball allowed an .808 OPS in through August 23rd, but it’s down to .544 in these last five starts. The streak started with a 7 IP/2 ER effort against the Cubs and while they have been better against righties in the second half (as pointed out in Cole’s write-up), they are still striking out way more than any team with a 26.2% K rate.

SILVER BUYS:

On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.

Danny Salazar CLE (v. KC) – Salazar’s biggest issue (HRs) is minimized against the Royals. They just don’t have much power. In fact, their 64 HRs versus righties this year are the lowest total in baseball (BAL pacing the league with 147). He hasn’t been pristine since returning and of course he allowed 2 HR in each of his two duds, but even with those games in the mix, he has a 3.06 ERA in 64.7 IP since returning from the minors. He also has 65 Ks and a 4.3 K:BB ratio, plus just one other homer allowed outside of those four in two games against CIN and LAA (11 ER in 8.7 IP during those starts).

Yordano Ventura KC (at CLE) – This is more of a strength v. strength matchup. Cleveland has handled righties all year, but Ventura has allowed just a 2.08 ERA against them in three starts with a 0.97 WHIP and 4.7 K:BB ratio despite just a 5.8 K9. Speaking of his strikeouts, they’d been lagging for a while in the early-to-mid summer, but since a 0-K effort against Boston on July 20th, he has put up 59 in his last 64.3 IP (8.3 K9).

VALUE PLAYS:

These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.

Robbie Erlin SD (v. COL) – Erlin will almost always be a home/road guy. He’s not a huge prospect for the Padres, but the lefty does have real talent and it plays up in Petco. That’s the case for a lot of pitchers, but Erlin is especially pleased with his home park as a flyball-heavy pitcher who succeeds with command and control as opposed to pure stuff. He’s been limited this year because of injury, but he does have a 2.64 ERA in 30.7 IP at home, along with 7.9 K9 and a 3.4 K:BB ratio. The Rockies are godawful on the road with only the Padres (.620) carrying a worse road OPS than their .631 mark. The Rockies actually did some work on the road in April before collapsing and their .609 road OPS from May 1st on is easily baseball’s worst (CIN .632 is second-worst; SD shot all the way up to 28th with a .640).

Henderson Alvarez MIA (v. PHI) – I realize he’s not great. I was actually been pretty anti-Alvarez coming into the season because he just doesn’t miss bats, but I’m a convert and I’ve been enjoying his incredible value all year long, particularly on the daily landscape. Despite carrying a sub-3.00 ERA since May 28th, his price has never really shot up. Should he really be priced below Clay Buchholz or R.A. Dickey? I’ll take the lower strikeout total for a great chance at six-to-seven strong innings plus the upside for much more when he’s on (tied for MLB lead with three shutouts).

STAYAWAYS:

These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher wOBA vs L ERA vs L wOBA vs R ERA vs R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Jimenez 0.353 5.56 0.320 4.08 0.240 0.676 0.294 4.74 0.244 95.61 20.9%
McCarthy 0.325 3.78 0.314 4.09 0.260 0.738 0.324 3.43 0.273 95.23 20.6%
Colon 0.297 4.05 0.326 3.99 0.245 0.706 0.307 3.53 0.268 97.69 18.0%
Roark 0.300 3.36 0.264 2.34 0.239 0.681 0.273 3.49 0.237 97.10 17.7%
Ventura 0.289 2.88 0.311 3.63 0.255 0.726 0.284 3.60 0.235 96.38 20.1%
Salazar 0.307 3.32 0.336 4.45 0.259 0.678 0.333 3.60 0.264 93.58 25.0%
Hernandez 0.233 1.05 0.258 3.42 0.263 0.752 0.259 2.54 0.198 102.13 27.1%
Dickey 0.302 3.01 0.329 4.46 0.245 0.694 0.269 4.33 0.235 104.19 19.1%
Carroll 0.370 4.52 0.343 5.84 0.275 0.750 0.308 4.89 0.292 81.58 10.3%
Price 0.297 3.38 0.287 3.37 0.257 0.715 0.308 2.86 0.241 109.50 26.9%
Fiers 0.214 1.63 0.220 1.91 0.239 0.657 0.224 2.55 0.169 78.08 29.0%
Cueto 0.258 2.08 0.263 2.56 0.256 0.715 0.241 3.29 0.193 107.97 25.3%
Cole 0.327 2.82 0.315 4.83 0.238 0.654 0.311 3.51 0.25 99.20 22.6%
Wood 0.292 1.93 0.288 3.07 0.257 0.689 0.295 3.21 0.233 75.71 24.6%
Cobb 0.246 2.74 0.294 2.90 0.241 0.671 0.278 3.11 0.221 96.72 22.5%
Buchholz 0.356 4.78 0.309 5.91 0.247 0.685 0.314 4.13 0.271 97.96 17.9%
Hamels 0.294 2.11 0.290 2.56 0.268 0.703 0.301 3.06 0.234 104.79 24.2%
Alvarez 0.298 2.42 0.323 3.33 0.242 0.662 0.305 3.57 0.27 86.68 14.9%
Miller 0.313 4.26 0.302 3.20 0.234 0.671 0.254 4.48 0.231 89.45 16.0%
Hendricks 0.257 2.34 0.278 2.23 0.255 0.686 0.271 3.22 0.238 89.25 14.3%
Oberholtzer 0.322 3.78 0.323 4.58 0.276 0.757 0.321 3.47 0.282 93.91 15.2%
Martinez 0.379 4.83 0.337 4.88 0.232 0.673 0.294 5.22 0.279 82.19 12.4%
Chafin 0.255 0.698 0.188 3.85 0.162 94.50 11.6%
Gibson 0.320 4.38 0.295 4.92 0.248 0.677 0.288 3.88 0.259 89.97 13.3%
LeBlanc 0.304 5.40 0.236 0.682 0.294 3.84 0.253 38.67 17.9%
Gray 0.289 2.98 0.284 3.65 0.257 0.724 0.280 3.53 0.232 99.81 19.7%
Bumgarner 0.243 1.88 0.298 3.22 0.246 0.708 0.301 2.89 0.236 101.75 25.3%
Greinke 0.282 2.21 0.305 3.25 0.254 0.697 0.315 2.99 0.247 100.50 25.4%
De La Rosa 0.234 2.30 0.337 4.72 0.219 0.613 0.258 4.39 0.23 95.74 17.8%
Erlin 0.306 5.17 0.337 4.28 0.274 0.789 0.322 3.40 0.275 80.82 18.4%

Starting Pitcher Salaries

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

daily pitcher chart 2

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About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.