Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, April 14th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strasburg | WAS | BOS | 215 | 3.14 | 2.64 | 1.12 | 52.4% | 27.9% | 5.0% | 0.96 | 1.46 |
| Masterson | BOS | WAS | 128.2 | 5.88 | 4.03 | 1.63 | 36.8% | 19.6% | 11.7% | 0.84 | 2.70 |
| Greene | DET | PIT | 78.2 | 3.78 | 3.41 | 1.40 | 100.0% | 23.5% | 8.4% | 0.92 | 1.78 |
| Burnett | PIT | DET | 213.2 | 4.59 | 4.00 | 1.41 | 38.1% | 20.3% | 10.3% | 0.84 | 1.78 |
| Sabathia | NYY | BAL | 46 | 5.28 | 3.07 | 1.48 | 25.0% | 23.0% | 4.8% | 1.96 | 1.63 |
| Gonzalez | BAL | NYY | 159 | 3.23 | 4.40 | 1.30 | 40.0% | 16.5% | 7.6% | 1.42 | 0.89 |
| Andriese | TBR | TOR | |||||||||
| Norris | TOR | TBR | |||||||||
| Koehler | MIA | ATL | 191.1 | 3.81 | 4.16 | 1.30 | 52.6% | 19.1% | 8.8% | 0.75 | 1.11 |
| Cahill | ATL | MIA | 110.2 | 5.61 | 3.96 | 1.61 | 20.0% | 21.0% | 11.0% | 0.73 | 1.79 |
| Buchanan | PHI | NYM | 117.2 | 3.75 | 4.21 | 1.29 | 20.0% | 14.1% | 6.4% | 0.92 | 1.68 |
| Harvey | NYM | PHI | |||||||||
| Quintana | CWS | CLE | 200.1 | 3.32 | 3.50 | 1.24 | 50.0% | 21.5% | 6.3% | 0.45 | 1.35 |
| Carrasco | CLE | CWS | 134 | 2.55 | 2.58 | 0.99 | 26.5% | 5.5% | 0.47 | 1.91 | |
| Rucinski | LAA | TEX | |||||||||
| Martinez | TEX | LAA | 140.1 | 4.55 | 5.22 | 1.46 | 27.3% | 12.6% | 9.0% | 1.15 | 0.70 |
| Desclafani | CIN | CHC | 33 | 6.27 | 3.70 | 1.36 | 20.0% | 17.8% | 3.4% | 1.09 | 0.88 |
| Arrieta | CHC | CIN | 156.2 | 2.53 | 2.83 | 0.99 | 50.0% | 27.2% | 6.7% | 0.29 | 1.73 |
| Graveman | OAK | HOU | |||||||||
| Peacock | HOU | OAK | 131.2 | 4.72 | 4.45 | 1.56 | 28.6% | 20.2% | 11.9% | 1.37 | 0.88 |
| Iwakuma | SEA | LAD | 179 | 3.52 | 2.94 | 1.05 | 60.0% | 21.7% | 3.0% | 1.01 | 1.75 |
| Huff | LAD | SEA | 59 | 3.36 | 4.12 | 1.42 | 15.1% | 8.9% | 0.76 | 1.55 | |
| Hellickson | ARI | SDP | 63.2 | 4.52 | 4.04 | 1.45 | 19.2% | 7.5% | 1.13 | 0.89 | |
| Despaigne | SDP | ARI | 96.1 | 3.36 | 4.14 | 1.21 | 100.0% | 16.1% | 7.9% | 0.56 | 1.80 |
| Bergman | COL | SFG | 54.2 | 5.93 | 4.64 | 1.55 | 33.3% | 12.5% | 4.0% | 1.48 | 0.78 |
| Hudson | SFG | COL | 189.1 | 3.57 | 3.66 | 1.23 | 68.4% | 15.2% | 4.3% | 0.71 | 2.05 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Stephen Strasburg WAS (at BOS) – The potential for double-digit strikeouts is higher for Stras than any other pitcher in baseball, but he also carries the risk factor with the occasional implosion. His game starts an hour before the damn breaks, so the Nats and Red Sox may not be available depending on the game format, but as long as he’s an option I’ll take Strasburg against virtually any opponent.
Matt Harvey NYM (vs. PHI) – Matt Harvey, how we missed thee. Rumors of 99-mph fastballs this spring hyped the optimism surrounding Harvey like oxygen to a campfire, though he basically needed only two pitch types to shut down the Nats in his first start of the season. Harvey’s delivery looked excellent, likely having benefited from the extra time for rest and rehabilitation. His mechanics earned an A- for efficiency in his first start back, not quite at the level that was on display before going under the knife but better than the seasons prior to his injury.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Carlos Carrasco CLE (vs. CHW) – Carrasco’s development from failed reliever to stud starter is very real, as a simple mechanical adjustment (ditching the windup) allowed him to harness consistency and repeat the delivery for the first time in his career. He already had the stuff to dominate, but pitch command is the wild card that can make the difference between dominance and demotion. He has continued his great run into 2015, both in terms of his performance (10 K’s against one walk over 6.3 frames against Houston) and his mechanical adjustment, as he continued to pitch exclusively from the stretch.
Jake Arrieta CHC (vs. CIN) – Arrieta and Carrasco are connected at the hip as two late bloomers who took a sudden leap up multiple tiers of value. Each pitcher can attribute at least some his success to mechanical improvements, and though the specific adjustments that were made differ for each pitcher, the net result for both arms was mechanical consistency and the refinement necessary to harness pitch command and make the most of stuff that was already plus.
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (at LAD) – Last week’s implosion was unsurprising, as Iwakuma had been dealing with a blister issue on his throwing hand that interfered with his trademark split-finger. Fastball command was also impacted, with Iwakuma missing up-in to right-handed batters throughout the ballgame. Even with his command compromised, Iwakuma avoided the free pass to continue his run towards four straight seasons with improving walk rates – last year the walk rate was just 3.0% (1.1 BB/9), so topping that will take a Hughesian effort to avoid ball four. The blister issue is a known problem for Iwakuma and he knows how to manage it, so even though I had doubts as to his performance last week, with five extra days of treatment and management I suspect that he will be good to go for his start today.
Jose Quintana CHW (at CLE) – The Indians are particularly vulnerable to left-handed starters, as the platoon disadvantage converts Michael Brantley and Jason Kipnis to shells of their offensive selves (more than 100 points of OPS lower vs. southpaws), while the power is sapped from the bat of Brandon Moss. With Yan Gomes on the shelf the team is even more vulnerable to left-handers, and Quintana could have a good day against a tough opponent.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strasburg | 0.287 | 2.75 | 0.302 | 3.45 | 0.245 | 0.682 | 0.315 | 2.94 | 0.241 | 96.91 | 27.9% |
| Masterson | 0.400 | 6.68 | 0.332 | 4.99 | 0.248 | 0.709 | 0.339 | 4.50 | 0.278 | 0.00 | 19.6% |
| Greene | 0.345 | 3.63 | 0.297 | 3.92 | 0.260 | 0.746 | 0.330 | 3.73 | 0.261 | 90.20 | 23.5% |
| Burnett | 0.350 | 5.22 | 0.316 | 4.06 | 0.274 | 0.745 | 0.302 | 4.14 | 0.249 | 102.12 | 20.3% |
| Sabathia | 0.401 | 4.85 | 0.253 | 0.738 | 0.350 | 4.78 | 0.297 | 99.75 | 23.0% | ||
| Gonzalez | 0.340 | 2.81 | 0.321 | 3.72 | 0.240 | 0.677 | 0.273 | 4.89 | 0.253 | 94.52 | 16.5% |
| Andriese | 0.263 | 0.750 | |||||||||
| Norris | 0.249 | 0.693 | |||||||||
| Koehler | 0.292 | 3.43 | 0.329 | 4.22 | 0.236 | 0.651 | 0.290 | 3.84 | 0.244 | 91.91 | 19.1% |
| Cahill | 0.402 | 7.63 | 0.303 | 4.04 | 0.247 | 0.690 | 0.350 | 3.89 | 0.28 | 60.25 | 21.0% |
| Buchanan | 0.272 | 2.39 | 0.357 | 4.85 | 0.241 | 0.685 | 0.284 | 4.27 | 0.259 | 90.85 | 14.1% |
| Harvey | 0.243 | 0.662 | |||||||||
| Quintana | 0.302 | 4.86 | 0.290 | 2.76 | 0.252 | 0.672 | 0.318 | 2.81 | 0.254 | 104.56 | 21.5% |
| Carrasco | 0.236 | 2.51 | 0.252 | 2.60 | 0.251 | 0.705 | 0.274 | 2.44 | 0.207 | 48.90 | 26.5% |
| Rucinski | 0.249 | 0.663 | |||||||||
| Martinez | 0.366 | 4.54 | 0.326 | 4.57 | 0.254 | 0.716 | 0.289 | 4.94 | 0.272 | 82.93 | 12.6% |
| Desclafani | 0.391 | 6.89 | 0.307 | 5.71 | 0.233 | 0.671 | 0.330 | 3.77 | 0.288 | 0.00 | 17.8% |
| Arrieta | 0.251 | 2.18 | 0.234 | 2.81 | 0.238 | 0.657 | 0.274 | 2.26 | 0.2 | 96.64 | 27.2% |
| Graveman | 0.233 | 0.673 | |||||||||
| Peacock | 0.348 | 4.17 | 0.359 | 5.50 | 0.246 | 0.709 | 0.309 | 4.99 | 0.264 | 84.75 | 20.2% |
| Iwakuma | 0.309 | 3.42 | 0.252 | 3.62 | 0.271 | 0.746 | 0.287 | 3.25 | 0.243 | 90.79 | 21.7% |
| Huff | 0.276 | 2.73 | 0.333 | 3.86 | 0.240 | 0.636 | 0.295 | 4.13 | 0.261 | 21.15 | 15.1% |
| Hellickson | 0.261 | 3.76 | 0.423 | 5.68 | 0.229 | 0.640 | 0.321 | 4.15 | 0.275 | 90.62 | 19.2% |
| Despaigne | 0.322 | 3.09 | 0.255 | 3.62 | 0.250 | 0.679 | 0.267 | 3.74 | 0.232 | 96.81 | 16.1% |
| Bergman | 0.340 | 3.28 | 0.425 | 8.10 | 0.253 | 0.695 | 0.333 | 4.74 | 0.315 | 0.00 | 12.5% |
| Hudson | 0.331 | 3.71 | 0.292 | 3.41 | 0.276 | 0.763 | 0.300 | 3.54 | 0.266 | 89.81 | 15.2% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Daniel Norris TOR (vs. TB) – Norris will be facing a lot of right-handed batters in this lineup, and though the Rays bats are a bit soft overall, they are specially suited to handle southpaws. Norris had a career rate of 10.7 K/9 in the minors, and though his fastball is merely average to a tick above, he gets bonus points for being left-handed while the sharp slider is a potential weapon.
Odrisamer Despaigne SD (vs. ARI) – His deception is a key to his effectiveness, but that deception might be old news for a Diamondbacks club that faced Despaigne four times last season. He has the ability to shut down an offense on occasion, and the D’backs will be limited by the fact that their offensive cornerstone, Paul Goldschmidt, was injured for three of Despaigne’s four starts versus Arizona. But if anyone can adjust quickly, Goldie can.
Anthony Desclafani CIN (at CHC) – This is an underrated starter with a lengthy history of low walk rates and solid K rates in the minor keagues. The K’s could spike against a young Cubs team, but there is considerable risk in the runs column against a club that relies on the longball.
CC Sabathia NYY (at BAL) – Sabathia’s velocity is back in the low-to-mid 90s, and important development for an aging pitcher with a recent history of shoulder ailments. The slider was snapping its way to four of his eight strikeouts against the Blue Jays in his first start, but his sinker and change-up were lacking the movement to prevent hard-hit baseballs. I won’t trust him until I see that the command is back and that he is keeping all of his pitches on a plane with the lower third of the strike zone, but the fact that he regained some velo is a positive sign for his performance this season.
Shane Greene DET (at PIT) – His 9.3 K/9 in 78.7 innings of work last season marked a higher rate than anything that he had put up in the minors, and he has a long history of subpar walk rates to go with it. Expect regression in both of the strike-zone categories this season.
A.J. Burnett PIT (vs. DET)
Justin Masterson BOS (vs. WAS)
Jeremy Hellickson ARI (at SD)
Tom Koehler MIA (at ATL)
Tim Hudson SF (vs. COL)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Kendall Graveman OAK (at HOU)
Miguel Gonzalez BAL (vs. NYY)
Drew Rucinski LAA (at TEX)
Matt Andriese TB (at TOR)
Trevor Cahill ATL (vs. MIA)
David Buchanan PHI (at NYM)
Nick Martinez TEX (vs. LAA)
Brad Peacock HOU (vs. OAK)
David Huff LAD (vs. SEA)
Christian Bergman COL (at SF)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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