Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, April 21st

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-04-25 15:18:46

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Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Lynn	STL	WAS	203.2	2.74	3.84	1.26	60.0%	20.9%	8.3%	0.57	1.23
Gonzalez	WAS	STL	158.2	3.57	3.43	1.20	46.7%	24.8%	8.6%	0.57	1.22
Haren	MIA	PHI	186	4.02	3.74	1.18	30.0%	18.7%	4.6%	1.31	1.06
Williams	PHI	MIA	115	4.77	4.03	1.40		16.5%	7.2%	0.94	1.38
Wood	CHC	PIT	173.2	5.03	4.41	1.53	30.0%	18.7%	9.7%	1.04	0.81
Liriano	PIT	CHC	162.1	3.38	3.61	1.30	12.5%	25.3%	11.7%	0.72	2.03
Norris	BAL	TOR	165.1	3.65	3.86	1.22	26.7%	20.2%	7.6%	1.09	1.13
Buehrle	TOR	BAL	202	3.39	4.32	1.36	60.0%	13.9%	5.4%	0.67	1.29
Eovaldi	NYY	DET	199.2	4.37	3.91	1.33	50.0%	16.6%	5.0%	0.63	1.36
Lobstein	DET	NYY	39.1	4.35	4.35	1.25		16.5%	8.5%	0.69	1.20
Cahill	ATL	NYM	110.2	5.61	3.96	1.61	20.0%	21.0%	11.0%	0.73	1.79
Niese	NYM	ATL	187.2	3.40	3.78	1.27	41.2%	17.6%	5.7%	0.82	1.60
Miley	BOS	TBR	201.1	4.34	3.67	1.40	33.3%	21.1%	8.7%	1.03	1.82
Archer	TBR	BOS	194.2	3.33	3.80	1.28	55.0%	21.1%	8.8%	0.55	1.50
Milone	MIN	KCR	118	4.19	4.57	1.40	43.8%	14.5%	7.1%	1.22	1.00
Vargas	KCR	MIN	187	3.71	4.14	1.27	68.4%	16.2%	5.2%	0.91	0.99
Carrasco	CLE	CWS	134	2.55	2.58	0.99		26.5%	5.5%	0.47	1.91
Noesi	CWS	CLE	172.1	4.75	4.34	1.37	26.7%	16.8%	7.6%	1.46	0.94
Marquis	CIN	MIL
Fiers	MIL	CIN	71.2	2.13	2.94	0.88		27.7%	6.2%	0.88	0.71
Morrow	SDP	COL	33.1	5.67	4.23	1.65		20.3%	12.2%	0.54	1.67
Matzek	COL	SDP	117.2	4.05	4.08	1.39	25.0%	18.1%	8.8%	0.69	1.64
Martinez	TEX	ARI	140.1	4.55	5.22	1.46	27.3%	12.6%	9.0%	1.15	0.70
Anderson	ARI	TEX	114.1	4.01	3.78	1.37	40.0%	21.6%	8.2%	1.26	1.12
Pomeranz	OAK	LAA	69	2.35	3.62	1.12	25.0%	23.0%	9.4%	0.91	1.27
Santiago	LAA	OAK	127.1	3.75	4.38	1.36	16.7%	19.9%	9.7%	1.06	0.61
McHugh	HOU	SEA	154.2	2.73	3.14	1.02	42.9%	25.4%	6.6%	0.76	1.25
Walker	SEA	HOU	38	2.61	3.97	1.29		21.3%	11.3%	0.47	1.78
Anderson	LAD	SFG	43.1	2.91	3.61	1.32	20.0%	16.1%	7.2%	0.21	2.77
Lincecum	SFG	LAD	155.2	4.74	3.95	1.39	40.0%	19.9%	9.4%	1.10	1.60

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

For the second consecutive day, there is no pitcher on the docket who fits the all-in category. This space is reserved for the top 15 or so arms, and though a few guys are close, each has his own caveats to consider for today.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Carlos Carrasco CLE (at CHW) – Carrasco just misses the all-in category, as he offers rare upside and the possibility of double-digit strikeouts. There’s a grain of salt in this matchup, as we can’t be sure how Carrasco will respond to retaking the mound following last week’s horrific injury, but I’m optimistic.

Gio Gonzalez WAS (vs. STL) – Gio is an incredibly consistent pitcher, garnering between 8.8 and 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings for the last four seasons, and walking between 3.2 and 3.4 per nine for each of the past three. He will have the occasional hiccup, and the Cardinals are just the team to have a single-frame run that ruins his day. Gonzalez has pitched very well against St. Louis in the recent past, but he has only taken the hill against the Cards once per season since he came over to the National League.

Lance Lynn STL (at WAS) – The Nationals lineup is slowly restocking, with Jayson Werth back in the outfield (though he has been stationed in left field after spending the last five years in right) and Denard Span having played his first game of the season on Sunday. The reinforcements might face an uphill battle due to the missed time, trying to rediscover their swings, so Lynn could have a slight advantage in this contest. Lynn has also been very consistent, save for the mid-summer swoon that has occurred in each of the past three seasons, and he should be a relatively safe bet for tonight’s ballgame.

Collin McHugh HOU (at SEA) – McHugh was nothing short of dominant in his last outing, whiffing 11 Athletics out of 17 outs, though his pitch count kept him under the 18-out threshold required for a quality start. McHugh’s breakout last season was fully supported by the stats, the stuff, and the mechanics, such that he deserves to be anointed into the raise category on a more permanent basis.

Chris Archer TB (vs. BOS) – Archer has been ridiculous in his first two starts of the season, ramping up the velocity to 96.3 mph on average and reaching back for 98 mph on occasion. He’s only a two-pitch guy, with all of his offerings falling into the fastball or slider bins, but Jordan Zimmermann has shown how well the heater-slider can work when A) those two pitches are filthy, and B) when a pitcher has the command to locate those pitches at will. Archer has been able to repeat his delivery exceptionally well in his first two games, and though he faces a daunting Red Sox lineup, he also possesses the particular set of skills to shut down such a heavy-hitting opponent.

Francisco Liriano PIT (vs. CHC) – Liriano is a bit of a wild card, in the sense that a bad day is lurking around every corner, but the young Cubbie lineup creates an ideal scenario for the southpaw to rack up K’s so long as can keep burying the slider. Between Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, and today’s call-up Addison Russell, the Cubs have a cadre of youthful batsmen who have not yet seen the best stuff that the world has to offer, and Liriano is sure to test them right out of the gate with his nasty breaking pitch. But beware, the kids have a track record of bashing lefties in the minors, and Liriano could be in for a long day if the rooks are up to the challenge.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Lynn	0.314	2.98	0.284	2.57	0.248	0.709	0.290	3.35	0.235	104.55	20.9%
Gonzalez	0.284	3.79	0.293	3.51	0.254	0.718	0.294	3.03	0.226	97.15	24.8%
Haren	0.290	3.42	0.333	4.63	0.243	0.662	0.276	4.09	0.248	96.75	18.7%
Williams	0.348	4.70	0.320	4.85	0.247	0.690	0.313	4.16	0.275	49.51	16.5%
Wood	0.276	4.13	0.371	5.37	0.258	0.691	0.320	4.38	0.272	98.23	18.7%
Liriano	0.331	4.20	0.284	3.20	0.257	0.726	0.280	3.59	0.215	93.59	25.3%
Norris	0.333	3.81	0.296	3.47	0.263	0.750	0.279	4.22	0.24	98.07	20.2%
Buehrle	0.318	3.48	0.332	3.35	0.253	0.738	0.316	3.66	0.283	96.31	13.9%
Eovaldi	0.336	4.30	0.304	4.45	0.274	0.745	0.323	3.37	0.277	96.91	16.6%
Lobstein	0.274	2.84	0.301	5.06	0.260	0.712	0.267	3.82	0.233	90.00	16.5%
Cahill	0.402	7.63	0.303	4.04	0.241	0.685	0.350	3.89	0.28	60.25	21.0%
Niese	0.289	4.21	0.329	3.14	0.255	0.712	0.304	3.67	0.263	93.07	17.6%
Miley	0.326	5.32	0.331	4.06	0.249	0.693	0.317	3.98	0.263	97.48	21.1%
Archer	0.283	2.67	0.307	4.21	0.245	0.682	0.296	3.39	0.239	98.75	21.1%
Milone	0.323	3.86	0.339	4.28	0.266	0.710	0.290	4.69	0.268	87.50	14.5%
Vargas	0.296	2.51	0.321	4.10	0.260	0.708	0.299	3.84	0.265	100.10	16.2%
Carrasco	0.236	2.51	0.252	2.60	0.251	0.705	0.274	2.44	0.207	48.90	26.5%
Noesi	0.320	4.50	0.367	5.12	0.254	0.722	0.290	4.83	0.267	83.42	16.8%
Marquis					0.254	0.708
Fiers	0.234	2.23	0.240	2.06	0.238	0.657	0.224	2.99	0.179	80.14	27.7%
Morrow	0.412	6.35	0.318	4.96	0.276	0.763	0.357	3.73	0.285	47.54	20.3%
Matzek	0.199	2.27	0.372	4.71	0.220	0.616	0.312	3.78	0.263	88.20	18.1%
Martinez	0.366	4.54	0.326	4.57	0.250	0.679	0.289	4.94	0.272	82.93	12.6%
Anderson	0.314	3.76	0.363	4.23	0.249	0.663	0.313	4.22	0.264	90.10	21.6%
Pomeranz	0.300	1.20	0.259	2.67	0.273	0.763	0.244	3.77	0.203	56.90	23.0%
Santiago	0.274	2.34	0.326	4.27	0.239	0.681	0.288	4.29	0.246	75.77	19.9%
McHugh	0.272	2.58	0.252	2.95	0.246	0.697	0.259	3.11	0.205	99.44	25.4%
Walker	0.333	2.86	0.229	2.25	0.233	0.673	0.282	3.68	0.223	78.13	21.3%
Anderson	0.324	4.63	0.291	2.27	0.258	0.708	0.314	2.99	0.263	83.00	16.1%
Lincecum	0.335	4.81	0.346	4.68	0.271	0.746	0.299	4.31	0.255	80.76	19.9%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Nate Eovaldi NYY (at DET) – Eovaldi has excellent stuff, and the newfound splitter might be the piece that’s been missing from his puzzle of dominance. However, the Tigers have such a stacked lineup that even elite pitchers are intimidated to walk into their Detroit lair. The split will be a key to his retiring Victor Martinez, but there is no secret formula for retiring Miguel Cabrera while J.D. Martinez has followed a similar pattern ever since he began mimicking Miggy’s swing.

Brett Anderson LAD (at SF) – Everyone wonders what Anderson would do with a full slate of starts, but before we get ahead of ourselves, first he has to make it through the season’s first month unscathed. The Giants have a weak lineup and a pitcher-friendly ballpark, elements which should help Anderson’s stat-line in this game.

Mike Fiers MIL (vs. CIN) – Fiers continues to tease. Hopse were high after last season’s 10-start run of dominance in the majors and his absolute domination of PCL hitters, which included 129 strikeouts against 17 walks across 102 frames in Triple-A. But his introduction to 2015 has been tumultuous, including 14 hits allowed through 10.7 innings, though some optimism is fueled by his 12-to-2 ratio of K’s to walks in the early-going.

Jon Niese NYM (vs. ATL) – The great run of Atlanta has slowed down to a march, with a 6-4 record in their last 10 games, and I don’t expect it to be long before they settle toward the bottom of the NL East standings. The only hitter that strikes fear into opponents is Freddie Freeman, a left-handed bat who has surrendered 139 points of OPS (including 95 points of slugging) when facing southpaws in his career. Nick Markakis might be the next-feared batter in that lineup, and he also carries a hefty OPS cost when facing lefties, and the stick of Johnny Gomes is no longer potent enough to inspire fear against left-handers like Niese.

Dan Haren MIA (at PHI) – The Phillies lineup is approaching embarrassing levels of incompetence, and though they have a theoretical platoon advantage thanks to a lineup that leans heavily to the left, Haren actually has a reverse platoon split in his career thanks to effective use of his off-speed pitch.

Chase Anderson ARI (vs. TEX) – This Anderson might not be a household name, but he is reasonably safe from a rostering standpoint. He had a 4.01 ERA across 21 starts last year, yet he allowed more than 4 earned runs in just two of those ballgames. Facing a Texas lineup that has been lacking power, Anderson is on tap to have yet another boring-yet-effective day.

Drew Pomeranz OAK (at LAA) – Pomeranz was painfully inconsistent last season, in the sense that it was hard to watch and that his own frustration resulted in a busted hand that landed him on the DL. He has continued that wave-riding act this season, first shutting down the Mariners but then getting knocked around by the light-hitting Astros. Big LA batsmen such as Mike Trout and Albert Pujols have had reverse platoon splits over the past couple of seasons, so his lefty-ness won’t be an added deterrent, but the overall strength of his opponent should steer folks clear of Pomeranz this evening.

Taijuan Walker SEA (vs. HOU) – Walker has been a mess in his first two starts, with a tendency to throw pitches in the same location (elevated to the right-side of the plate) within a very narrow velocity (88-96 mph). The subtle movement on his pitches can be very effective when Walker is able to command the pitches on both sides of the strike zone, but his issues with timing the delivery have turned him into a predictable pitcher who plays into batters strengths. Here’s hoping that he gets back on track against the Astros today, but I would have to see that his timing is honed before trusting him in my DFS lineup.

Tim Lincecum SF (vs. LAD) – There’s no predicting which version of Big Time Timmy Jim will show up today against the Dodgers, and there is considerable risk given the strength of the LA lineup and Lincecum’s history of going off the reservation with a moment’s notice.

Brandon Morrow SD (at COL)
Jason Marquis CIN (at MIL)
Travis Wood CHC (at PIT)
Jerome Williams PHI (vs. MIA)
Hector Santiago LAA (vs. OAK)
Tommy Milone MIN (at KC)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Wade Miley BOS (at TB)
Nick Martinez TEX (at ARI)
Tyler Matzek COL (vs. SD)
Jason Vargas KC (vs. MIN)
Mark Buehrle TOR (vs. BAL)
Bud Norris BAL (at TOR)
Hector Noesi CHW (vs. CLE)
Trevor Cahill ATL (at NYM)
Kyle Lobstein DET (vs. NYY)

Starting Pitcher Salaries

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window