Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, April 28th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hutchison | TOR | BOS | 184.2 | 4.48 | 3.59 | 1.26 | 31.6% | 23.4% | 7.6% | 1.12 | 0.80 |
| Buchholz | BOS | TOR | 170.1 | 5.34 | 4.02 | 1.39 | 33.3% | 17.9% | 7.3% | 0.90 | 1.36 |
| Guthrie | KCR | CLE | 202.2 | 4.13 | 4.34 | 1.30 | 42.1% | 14.4% | 5.7% | 1.02 | 1.19 |
| Bauer | CLE | KCR | 153 | 4.18 | 3.95 | 1.38 | 38.5% | 21.6% | 9.1% | 0.94 | 0.85 |
| Odorizzi | TBR | NYY | 168 | 4.13 | 3.66 | 1.28 | 36.8% | 24.2% | 8.2% | 1.07 | 0.61 |
| Whitley | NYY | TBR | 75.2 | 5.23 | 3.70 | 1.48 | 18.2% | 18.2% | 5.5% | 1.19 | 1.34 |
| Samardzija | CWS | BAL | 219.2 | 2.99 | 3.06 | 1.07 | 60.0% | 23.0% | 4.9% | 0.82 | 1.64 |
| Tillman | BAL | CWS | 207.1 | 3.34 | 4.26 | 1.23 | 42.9% | 17.2% | 7.6% | 0.91 | 1.03 |
| Lohse | MIL | CIN | 198.1 | 3.54 | 4.04 | 1.15 | 50.0% | 17.3% | 5.5% | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| Cueto | CIN | MIL | 243.2 | 2.25 | 3.15 | 0.96 | 76.2% | 25.2% | 6.8% | 0.81 | 1.34 |
| Roark | WAS | ATL | 198.2 | 2.85 | 3.93 | 1.09 | 52.6% | 17.3% | 4.9% | 0.72 | 1.09 |
| Teheran | ATL | WAS | 221 | 2.89 | 3.68 | 1.08 | 70.0% | 21.0% | 5.8% | 0.90 | 0.79 |
| Montero | NYM | MIA | 44.1 | 4.06 | 4.32 | 1.51 | 25.0% | 21.7% | 11.9% | 1.62 | 0.76 |
| Phelps | MIA | NYM | 113 | 4.38 | 4.21 | 1.42 | 42.9% | 18.5% | 9.3% | 1.04 | 1.18 |
| Happ | SEA | TEX | 158 | 4.22 | 3.94 | 1.34 | 30.8% | 19.8% | 7.6% | 1.25 | 1.03 |
| Detwiler | TEX | SEA | 63 | 4.00 | 4.13 | 1.41 | 14.2% | 7.7% | 0.71 | 1.40 | |
| Locke | PIT | CHC | 131.1 | 3.91 | 4.07 | 1.27 | 66.7% | 16.2% | 7.3% | 1.10 | 1.71 |
| Wood | CHC | PIT | 173.2 | 5.03 | 4.41 | 1.53 | 30.0% | 18.7% | 9.7% | 1.04 | 0.81 |
| Sanchez | DET | MIN | 126 | 3.43 | 3.64 | 1.10 | 41.2% | 19.8% | 5.8% | 0.29 | 1.31 |
| Pelfrey | MIN | DET | 23.2 | 7.99 | 6.45 | 1.99 | 8.4% | 15.1% | 1.90 | 1.15 | |
| Gonzalez | PHI | STL | |||||||||
| Wacha | STL | PHI | 107 | 3.20 | 3.74 | 1.20 | 53.3% | 21.0% | 7.4% | 0.50 | 1.15 |
| Kendrick | COL | ARI | 199 | 4.61 | 4.45 | 1.36 | 30.0% | 14.0% | 6.6% | 1.13 | 1.29 |
| Bradley | ARI | COL | |||||||||
| Weaver | LAA | OAK | 213.1 | 3.59 | 4.18 | 1.21 | 52.4% | 19.0% | 7.3% | 1.14 | 0.69 |
| Gray | OAK | LAA | 219 | 3.08 | 3.56 | 1.19 | 60.0% | 20.4% | 8.2% | 0.62 | 2.19 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | LAD | 217.1 | 2.98 | 2.98 | 1.09 | 47.6% | 25.1% | 4.9% | 0.87 | 1.24 |
| Kershaw | LAD | SFG | 198.1 | 1.77 | 2.09 | 0.86 | 66.7% | 31.9% | 4.1% | 0.41 | 1.77 |
| Hernandez | HOU | SDP | 164.2 | 4.10 | 4.67 | 1.39 | 35.3% | 14.5% | 10.1% | 1.04 | 1.66 |
| Ross | SDP | HOU | 195.2 | 2.81 | 3.21 | 1.21 | 66.7% | 24.0% | 8.9% | 0.60 | 2.58 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (vs. SF) – Kershaw started slowly but is getting stronger with every start, the last of which involved 9 strikeouts across 6.0 innings against the rival Giants in San Francisco. Now the Gigantes come to Los Angeles, and Kershaw is primed for dominance. He and Buster Posey have squared off more times against each other than anyone else in the league, and though Posey mashes lefties in general, Kershaw owns their particular matchup with a 473 OPS against.
Johnny Cueto CIN (vs. MIL) – Cueto has been on a strikeout frenzy so far in 2015. His rate of punchouts took a big leap last season so the common assumption was that he would give back some of the K rate this year, but he already has 32 strikeouts with only 5 walks in his first 29.0 innings of work. He gets a Brewer team that has been unplugged from its power source, setting the stage for a big day in Cincy.
Tyson Ross SD (vs. HOU) – Ross conquered the elements by stopping the Rockies in Colorado in his last turn, so the momentum is there for him to have a huge game against the strikeout-prone Astros in the run-suppressing environs of Petco Park. Let’s set the over/under on whiffed sliders at 10, but that might be conservative. Normally a great Raise candidate, Ross has the context to inspire an All-in play for tonight’s game.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Madison Bumgarner SF (at LAD) – Bummer has been off a bit in the early going, falling behind his usual K-per-inning pace and 22% rate that he had established over the last four seasons to a mere 16.7% frequency this season. His walk rate continues to be among the lowest in the game, but his relative lack of command (relative to himself that is) presents itself in the three hit batsmen and the 28 hits that he has allowed in 23.3 innings this season. Bumgarner was well-entrenched as an All-in pitcher, but he takes a step backward in this one due to the early-season struggles and his well-stacked opponent.
Michael Wacha STL (vs. PHI) – The guy who used to have a two-pitch repertoire now goes four deep with his arsenal with each weapon used at a 10 percent frequency or greater, and he has no qualms with throwing the kitchen sink at batters from either side of the plate. Facing the weakest lineup in the game, Wacha should breeze through today’s start and carries the upshot of an All-in day. Players aren’t supposed to improve a 1.33 ERA, but that might very well happen for Wacha today.
Sonny Gray OAK (vs. LAA) – Gray has been excellent in three of his four starts so far, including his one-run dominance of the Angels in his last turn. His strikeout rate has continued its general downturn, but Gray managed 7 punchouts in Anaheim last week and could be in store for another rate-boosting K count tonight. The Angels will have to make their value on contact, because Gray has given up just 5 walks so far this season (and no more than two in a single game), putting the onus on the bats to square up his steep curve.
Jake Odorizzi TB (at NYY) – The right-hander has been a revelation for Tampa this season, offering visual evidence as to why pitch command and movement are more valuable than sheer velocity. The Yankees scuffed him up for 3 runs over 6.0 innings in his third start, a total that doesn’t sound like scuffling until considering that he has given up just two runs total in his 21.3 innings of work. Odorizzi put 9 K’s in that game, saving his line from a DFS standpoint, and he is a good bet to have a positive return on investment today.
Julio Teheran ATL (vs. WAS) – Teheran has been hit hard in his last two starts, giving up nine earned runs across 9.3 innings (including 4 homers against the Jays), and he hasn’t posted a clean outing since his Opening Day start at Miami. The Mets coaxed 9 walks off Teheran in two ballgames, and the right-hander hasn’t managed more than 5 strikeouts in any one game this season. Consider my enthusiasm tempered until he gets back on track.
Archie Bradley ARI (vs. COL) – This rookie has moxie. He has posted three consecutive starts of six or more innings pitched and two or fewer runs allowed. The walks are much higher than you’d like to see (11 freebies in 18.7 innings), and the dozen K’s are too close to the walk-count to do him any favors with the advanced metrics, but the fact that Bradley has given up just 7 hits with no homers thus far is a testament to his excellent stuff. Arizona plays as Colorado light, so the Rockies bats will lose minimal potency (especially considering their great road performance in ’15), but the struggles of Carlos Gonzalez and injury issues of Corey Dickerson could help to limit the firepower of the Colorado lineup.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hutchison | 0.353 | 5.69 | 0.273 | 3.07 | 0.245 | 0.682 | 0.293 | 3.85 | 0.241 | 95.34 | 23.4% |
| Buchholz | 0.351 | 5.12 | 0.308 | 5.62 | 0.263 | 0.750 | 0.315 | 4.01 | 0.27 | 97.89 | 17.9% |
| Guthrie | 0.364 | 5.13 | 0.270 | 2.97 | 0.254 | 0.722 | 0.294 | 4.32 | 0.268 | 101.09 | 14.4% |
| Bauer | 0.324 | 4.34 | 0.329 | 4.02 | 0.261 | 0.682 | 0.312 | 4.01 | 0.255 | 99.65 | 21.6% |
| Odorizzi | 0.294 | 4.15 | 0.324 | 4.09 | 0.240 | 0.677 | 0.295 | 3.75 | 0.238 | 97.68 | 24.2% |
| Whitley | 0.380 | 6.18 | 0.348 | 4.21 | 0.246 | 0.681 | 0.353 | 4.14 | 0.305 | 52.71 | 18.2% |
| Samardzija | 0.292 | 2.58 | 0.279 | 3.34 | 0.257 | 0.732 | 0.283 | 3.20 | 0.231 | 101.18 | 23.0% |
| Tillman | 0.299 | 3.04 | 0.299 | 3.71 | 0.251 | 0.705 | 0.267 | 4.01 | 0.236 | 100.32 | 17.2% |
| Lohse | 0.319 | 4.08 | 0.286 | 3.08 | 0.238 | 0.657 | 0.268 | 3.95 | 0.24 | 96.84 | 17.3% |
| Cueto | 0.257 | 2.05 | 0.261 | 2.44 | 0.254 | 0.708 | 0.238 | 3.30 | 0.192 | 107.62 | 25.2% |
| Roark | 0.299 | 3.33 | 0.263 | 2.37 | 0.236 | 0.651 | 0.270 | 3.47 | 0.236 | 96.74 | 17.3% |
| Teheran | 0.301 | 3.31 | 0.262 | 2.46 | 0.248 | 0.709 | 0.267 | 3.49 | 0.227 | 99.12 | 21.0% |
| Montero | 0.401 | 5.01 | 0.320 | 3.00 | 0.247 | 0.690 | 0.298 | 5.14 | 0.257 | 83.70 | 21.7% |
| Phelps | 0.314 | 4.30 | 0.356 | 4.47 | 0.241 | 0.685 | 0.301 | 4.41 | 0.259 | 60.16 | 18.5% |
| Happ | 0.379 | 5.17 | 0.327 | 3.98 | 0.276 | 0.755 | 0.297 | 4.27 | 0.258 | 90.33 | 19.8% |
| Detwiler | 0.235 | 1.61 | 0.368 | 5.31 | 0.240 | 0.636 | 0.309 | 4.16 | 0.274 | 22.04 | 14.2% |
| Locke | 0.238 | 2.93 | 0.342 | 4.20 | 0.257 | 0.726 | 0.278 | 4.37 | 0.252 | 93.43 | 16.2% |
| Wood | 0.276 | 4.13 | 0.371 | 5.37 | 0.258 | 0.691 | 0.320 | 4.38 | 0.272 | 98.23 | 18.7% |
| Sanchez | 0.251 | 2.48 | 0.290 | 4.89 | 0.251 | 0.715 | 0.277 | 2.71 | 0.225 | 95.32 | 19.8% |
| Pelfrey | 0.294 | 4.41 | 0.274 | 0.745 | 0.286 | 7.57 | 0.293 | 0.00 | 8.4% | ||
| Gonzalez | 0.252 | 0.679 | |||||||||
| Wacha | 0.266 | 2.96 | 0.306 | 3.42 | 0.243 | 0.662 | 0.288 | 3.17 | 0.232 | 89.16 | 21.0% |
| Kendrick | 0.360 | 5.34 | 0.321 | 4.08 | 0.250 | 0.679 | 0.290 | 4.57 | 0.269 | 96.94 | 14.0% |
| Bradley | 0.276 | 0.763 | |||||||||
| Weaver | 0.321 | 3.79 | 0.277 | 3.27 | 0.246 | 0.709 | 0.267 | 4.19 | 0.236 | 98.59 | 19.0% |
| Gray | 0.289 | 2.81 | 0.277 | 3.40 | 0.254 | 0.716 | 0.277 | 3.46 | 0.229 | 99.85 | 20.4% |
| Bumgarner | 0.239 | 1.84 | 0.301 | 3.31 | 0.248 | 0.716 | 0.296 | 3.05 | 0.235 | 102.18 | 25.1% |
| Kershaw | 0.215 | 0.96 | 0.237 | 1.96 | 0.258 | 0.708 | 0.278 | 1.81 | 0.194 | 100.81 | 31.9% |
| Hernandez | 0.333 | 3.94 | 0.323 | 4.23 | 0.229 | 0.640 | 0.266 | 4.85 | 0.244 | 85.53 | 14.5% |
| Ross | 0.289 | 2.92 | 0.286 | 2.70 | 0.233 | 0.673 | 0.291 | 3.24 | 0.226 | 100.61 | 24.0% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Anibal Sanchez DET (at MIN) – Sanchez was tagged for 14 total runs across two consecutive starts, but he rebounded with 6.3 innings of one-run ball against the Yankees in his last start. The problem is that he still walked four batters in that game, and he hasn’t put up a really strong showing since his first turn of the year. Minnesota offers an opportunity for Sanchez to reel in his stat line, but the lefty-leaning lineup of the Twins will not be a cakewalk for the struggling right-hander.
Jered Weaver LAA (at OAK) – Weaver has a notorious home/road split, much favoring the dimensions of Angel Stadium in keeping his many flyballs in the ballpark. He tends to struggle on the road, but Oakland’s O.co Coliseum has not been an issue in his career (3.47 ERA in 103.7 innings). He was shelled by the Royals at a time when they were hitting everything and everybody, but Weaver skirted around 8 hits in 6.0 innings to hold the A’s to a lone run in his last start and he will try to pull the same trick again today.
J.A. Happ SEA (at TEX) – The Rangers are loaded with left-handed bats in their regular lineup, leaving them ill-prepared when a southpaw like Happ takes the hill. Adrian Beltre gets a bit of a boost, but the platoon sacrifices made by Prince Fielder and Sin-Shoo Choo more than make up the difference for a Ranger ballclub that is starting 2015 the same way that ’14 finished – in the basement.
A.J. Cole WAS (at ATL)
Kyle Lohse MIL (at CIN)
Travis Wood CHC (vs. PIT)
Ross Detwiler TEX (vs. SEA)
Jeff Locke PIT (at CHC)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Kyle Kendrick COL (at ARI)
Mike Pelfrey MIN (vs. DET)
Chase Whitley NYY (vs. TB)
David Phelps MIA (vs. NYM)
Roberto Hernandez HOU (at SD)
Rafael Montero NYM (at MIA)
Severino Gonzalez PHI (at STL)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
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