Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, June 2nd
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dickey | TOR | WAS | 265.2 | 4.10 | 4.32 | 1.25 | 47.6% | 17.4% | 8.2% | 1.19 | 1.14 |
| Zimmermann | WAS | TOR | 246.1 | 2.85 | 3.37 | 1.12 | 52.6% | 21.3% | 3.9% | 0.55 | 1.12 |
| Cueto | CIN | PHI | 302 | 2.38 | 3.16 | 0.95 | 76.2% | 25.1% | 6.4% | 0.86 | 1.29 |
| O’Sullivan | PHI | CIN | 34.2 | 4.67 | 4.43 | 1.24 | 13.7% | 5.5% | 1.82 | 1.30 | |
| Graveman | OAK | DET | 21 | 7.29 | 4.92 | 1.76 | 10.9% | 8.9% | 1.29 | 1.95 | |
| Simon | DET | OAK | 246.2 | 3.36 | 4.23 | 1.22 | 63.2% | 15.6% | 6.9% | 0.95 | 1.50 |
| Pelfrey | MIN | BOS | 62.2 | 5.03 | 5.58 | 1.61 | 9.3% | 11.3% | 1.15 | 1.70 | |
| Buchholz | BOS | MIN | 216 | 5.25 | 3.79 | 1.38 | 33.3% | 19.9% | 7.2% | 0.88 | 1.40 |
| Hendricks | CHC | MIA | 117 | 3.31 | 4.00 | 1.16 | 16.1% | 5.0% | 0.62 | 1.41 | |
| Hand | MIA | CHC | 131.1 | 4.52 | 4.28 | 1.36 | 33.3% | 14.6% | 7.8% | 0.69 | 1.62 |
| Samardzija | CHW | TEX | 272.2 | 3.30 | 3.28 | 1.12 | 60.0% | 21.8% | 4.9% | 0.89 | 1.48 |
| Lewis | TEX | CHW | 220.1 | 4.70 | 4.18 | 1.43 | 11.8% | 18.1% | 6.5% | 1.14 | 0.75 |
| Wright | BAL | HOU | |||||||||
| McHugh | HOU | BAL | 205.1 | 2.89 | 3.21 | 1.06 | 42.9% | 24.4% | 6.2% | 0.79 | 1.30 |
| Carrasco | CLE | KCR | 177.1 | 3.15 | 2.64 | 1.06 | 26.8% | 5.5% | 0.56 | 1.83 | |
| Guthrie | KCR | CLE | 244 | 4.35 | 4.51 | 1.33 | 42.1% | 13.3% | 5.8% | 1.03 | 1.19 |
| Cravy | MIL | STL | |||||||||
| Lynn | STL | MIL | 252.1 | 2.78 | 3.70 | 1.26 | 60.0% | 22.3% | 8.2% | 0.54 | 1.21 |
| Nicasio | LAD | COL | 111.1 | 4.69 | 4.03 | 1.41 | 35.7% | 18.3% | 8.5% | 1.54 | 1.34 |
| De La Rosa | COL | LAD | 207.2 | 4.38 | 4.00 | 1.28 | 40.0% | 18.9% | 9.0% | 0.95 | 1.75 |
| Miller | ATL | ARI | 237 | 3.19 | 4.44 | 1.17 | 21.1% | 17.5% | 9.2% | 0.95 | 1.07 |
| Collmenter | ARI | ATL | 226.1 | 3.86 | 4.29 | 1.18 | 29.4% | 14.9% | 4.9% | 0.99 | 0.97 |
| Archer | TBR | LAA | 249.1 | 3.14 | 3.58 | 1.22 | 55.0% | 22.7% | 8.5% | 0.54 | 1.61 |
| Wilson | LAA | TBR | 223.2 | 4.10 | 4.21 | 1.35 | 42.1% | 19.3% | 10.1% | 0.76 | 1.47 |
| Sabathia | NYY | SEA | 98 | 4.96 | 3.36 | 1.40 | 25.0% | 21.3% | 4.7% | 1.65 | 1.48 |
| Montgomery | SEA | NYY | |||||||||
| Syndergaard | NYM | SDP | 11.1 | 3.18 | 4.34 | 1.24 | 22.5% | 10.2% | 0.79 | 0.47 | |
| Kennedy | SDP | NYM | 230.1 | 4.02 | 3.57 | 1.31 | 47.6% | 23.9% | 8.4% | 0.94 | 1.08 |
| Burnett | PIT | SFG | 265.2 | 3.96 | 3.96 | 1.36 | 38.1% | 20.5% | 10.0% | 0.75 | 1.81 |
| Heston | SFG | PIT | 53.2 | 3.86 | 3.57 | 1.34 | 19.7% | 6.6% | 0.50 | 2.24 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Max Scherzer WAS (vs. TOR) – Not even the most formidable offense in all the land can deter Scherzer from All-in status or the top spot in our rankings. The competition for NL Cy Young is fierce, but league newcomer Scherzer has a leg up in the race heading out of the track’s first turn.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Chris Archer TB (at LAA) – It’s been all about riding the waves with Archer this season, and this ranking represents a hedge that the current crest that he is riding is not about to break against an Angels club that is searching for power. The bats of Albert Pujols and Matt Joyce have started to come around, so Archer’s task looks a bit taller, but his performance rests on whether the right-hander can consistently hit his spots.
Carlos Carrasco CLE (at KC) – Carrasco is hitting his stride, with back-to-back starts in which he pitched a combined 14.0 innings with 3 runs and 12 baserunners allowed, including 15 strikeouts and 3 walks. He’s facing the Royals at a good time – they’ve scored just 14 runs in their last 6 games, including two runs or fewer in 5 of 6. The usual low-K caveats of facing the Royals still apply, but Carrasco has the type of stuff that could crack the armor if his command is on target.
Zack Greinke LAD (at COL) – His performance against the Rockies this season has been solid in two starts at home this season, but today Greinke takes his wares to the thin air of Denver. The context is not quite as frightening when considering the current state of the dilapidated Colorado offense, especially if they give some players a rest in the nightcap of today’s doubleheader.
Lance Lynn STL (at MIL) – Lynn has a strong track record against the Brewers as a club (career ERA of 2.78) and Milwaukee’s big hitters as individuals – the quartet of Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy, and Aramis Ramirez are just 20-for-97 (.206) with one homer and two doubles combined in their careers versus Lynn.
Johnny Cueto CIN (at PHI) – Cueto is making his first start in two weeks, as elbow discomfort shelved him for a few starts, and he comes back with a pleasant greeting by the light-hitting Phillies. The Reds are likely to trade the right-hander whose contract expires after the season, and the next half-dozen starts will be critical in establishing his trade value for Cincy, so today’s turn carries additional intrigue. His pitch count might be limited tonight, capping his point potential.
Jeff Samardzija CHW (vs. TEX) – The Shark has rebounded nicely from his trip into Milwaukee, with three consecutive starts of 7.0 or more innings pitched (twice completing the eighth) and a sub-2.00 ERA across his last 23.0 innings.
A.J. Burnett PIT (at SF) – Burnett is putting up arguably the best season of his career, limiting walks and homers while striking out his typical 8.2 batters per nine, with a 2.70 FIP that’s almost as impressive his subterranean 1.81 ERA.
Shelby Miller ATL (at ARI) – Unstoppable force, meet immovable object. The D’backs have been raking this season, and though Paul Goldschmidt steals 90-percent of the headlines, he only makes up one-eighth of an offense that has scored the most runs in the National League this season. Miller has had an exceedingly soft schedule this season so he could be tested tonight in the desert, and his MLB-leading 5.5 H/9 is likely to rise towards the surface.
Noah Syndergaard (at SD) – Synder walked four batters in his MLB debut, but since then he has given up just one free pass in 19.3 innings of work, accumulating 16 strikeouts along the way. The Padres have the most formidable offense that Thor has faced thus far, but the squad’s recent issues with run-scoring and penchant to hit left-handers combine with the friendly environs to create a solid context for the right-hander to thrive.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dickey | 0.308 | 3.30 | 0.331 | 4.94 | 0.239 | 0.669 | 0.260 | 4.61 | 0.235 | 102.74 | 17.4% |
| Zimmermann | 0.304 | 3.20 | 0.261 | 2.42 | 0.235 | 0.718 | 0.307 | 2.78 | 0.249 | 90.95 | 21.3% |
| Cueto | 0.255 | 2.09 | 0.268 | 2.71 | 0.207 | 0.567 | 0.238 | 3.33 | 0.193 | 106.69 | 25.1% |
| O’Sullivan | 0.493 | 8.40 | 0.279 | 3.73 | 0.224 | 0.691 | 0.259 | 5.57 | 0.259 | 77.14 | 13.7% |
| Graveman | 0.389 | 6.92 | 0.309 | 4.50 | 0.291 | 0.803 | 0.333 | 5.67 | 0.315 | 0.00 | 10.9% |
| Simon | 0.321 | 3.68 | 0.284 | 2.81 | 0.279 | 0.767 | 0.269 | 4.23 | 0.244 | 95.23 | 15.6% |
| Pelfrey | 0.281 | 3.02 | 0.399 | 6.09 | 0.257 | 0.714 | 0.279 | 5.90 | 0.272 | 0.00 | 9.3% |
| Buchholz | 0.331 | 4.53 | 0.321 | 5.78 | 0.231 | 0.623 | 0.324 | 3.77 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 19.9% |
| Hendricks | 0.286 | 2.79 | 0.282 | 3.14 | 0.261 | 0.676 | 0.287 | 3.51 | 0.25 | 88.20 | 16.1% |
| Hand | 0.257 | 3.25 | 0.342 | 4.94 | 0.287 | 0.766 | 0.296 | 3.93 | 0.262 | 49.79 | 14.6% |
| Samardzija | 0.301 | 2.87 | 0.284 | 3.47 | 0.193 | 0.559 | 0.290 | 3.37 | 0.241 | 101.44 | 21.8% |
| Lewis | 0.374 | 5.05 | 0.330 | 5.06 | 0.256 | 0.679 | 0.328 | 4.18 | 0.285 | 96.59 | 18.1% |
| Wright | 0.244 | 0.00 | 0.099 | 0.244 | 0.747 | ||||||
| McHugh | 0.276 | 2.78 | 0.296 | 3.66 | 0.281 | 0.835 | 0.270 | 3.19 | 0.216 | 99.12 | 24.4% |
| Carrasco | 0.245 | 2.79 | 0.278 | 3.30 | 0.311 | 0.817 | 0.296 | 2.52 | 0.223 | 54.58 | 26.8% |
| Guthrie | 0.385 | 6.14 | 0.280 | 2.95 | 0.247 | 0.701 | 0.297 | 4.43 | 0.274 | 99.28 | 13.3% |
| Cravy | 0.279 | 0.762 | |||||||||
| Lynn | 0.319 | 3.49 | 0.289 | 2.47 | 0.232 | 0.650 | 0.299 | 3.16 | 0.236 | 104.83 | 22.3% |
| Nicasio | 0.403 | 4.95 | 0.310 | 4.52 | 0.284 | 0.772 | 0.292 | 4.90 | 0.264 | 41.80 | 18.3% |
| De La Rosa | 0.259 | 3.33 | 0.336 | 4.74 | 0.239 | 0.651 | 0.273 | 4.19 | 0.236 | 94.22 | 18.9% |
| Miller | 0.296 | 3.53 | 0.285 | 2.90 | 0.256 | 0.693 | 0.240 | 4.25 | 0.216 | 90.48 | 17.5% |
| Collmenter | 0.335 | 3.32 | 0.294 | 4.36 | 0.255 | 0.707 | 0.278 | 4.01 | 0.255 | 83.20 | 14.9% |
| Archer | 0.272 | 2.55 | 0.292 | 3.62 | 0.227 | 0.624 | 0.292 | 3.21 | 0.23 | 98.32 | 22.7% |
| Wilson | 0.262 | 3.56 | 0.334 | 4.47 | 0.246 | 0.736 | 0.292 | 4.06 | 0.244 | 100.26 | 19.3% |
| Sabathia | 0.204 | 6.63 | 0.395 | 5.09 | 0.251 | 0.735 | 0.338 | 4.44 | 0.291 | 98.31 | 21.3% |
| Montgomery | 0.266 | 0.837 | |||||||||
| Syndergaard | 0.243 | 2.25 | 0.288 | 2.84 | 0.244 | 0.694 | 0.258 | 3.94 | 0.209 | 99.00 | 22.5% |
| Kennedy | 0.332 | 4.22 | 0.310 | 3.81 | 0.235 | 0.653 | 0.312 | 3.61 | 0.248 | 100.54 | 23.9% |
| Burnett | 0.331 | 4.46 | 0.306 | 3.41 | 0.245 | 0.673 | 0.299 | 3.94 | 0.245 | 100.69 | 20.5% |
| Heston | 0.416 | 6.66 | 0.259 | 2.83 | 0.234 | 0.642 | 0.329 | 3.15 | 0.269 | 75.45 | 19.7% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Collin McHugh HOU (vs. BAL) – McHugh has been less than impressive of late, and today he faces a Baltimore offense that is hungry for runs. He certainly has the upside for a big day, but I would pick another opponent before paying the price on McHugh.
C.J. Wilson LAA (vs. TB) – The Rays excel against southpaws, where batters such as Evan Longoria and Steven Souza Jr have a heavy platoon advantage, and the team’s OPS is 97 points higher when facing a left-hander on the mound.
Clay Buchholz BOS (vs. MIN) – The Twins have been ripping the horsehide off the ball lately, and Buchholz is prone to highly volatile performance, so it’s anyone’s guess how this one will turn out for the Boston right-hander.
Mike Wright BAL (at HOU) – With a fastball that averages 95 mph and a slider that MLB hitters have yet to figure, Wright makes for a sneaky play today against a Houston club whose high-strikeout offense could quickly convert Wright’s K rate into a perceived asset.
Kyle Hendricks CHC (at MIA)
Alfredo Simon DET (vs. OAK)
Mike Pelfrey MIN (at BOS)
CC Sabathia NYY (at SEA)
Chris Heston SF (vs. PIT)
Josh Collmenter ARI (vs. ATL)
Mike Montgomery SEA (vs. NYY) – The former top prospect finally makes his big-league debut, but the minor-league numbers leave much to be desired and his readiness for such an assignment is suspect.
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Colby Lewis TEX (vs. CHW) – The regression came in one fell swoop, but there’s no telling whether the storm is over.
Ian Kennedy SD (vs. NYM)
Brad Hand MIA (vs. CHC)
Kendall Graveman OAK (at DET)
Jeremy Guthrie KC (vs. CLE)
Marco Estrada TOR (at WAS) – I’ll put the over/under on Bryce Harper homers at 1.5 today.
Sean O’Sullivan PHI (vs. CIN)
Tyler Cravy MIL (at STL) – It’s a great day to stack the deck with Cards, as Cravy’s MLB debut could be short-lived
David Hale COL (vs. LAD)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
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- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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