Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, May 12th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lynn | STL | CLE | 203.2 | 2.74 | 3.84 | 1.26 | 60.0% | 20.9% | 8.3% | 0.57 | 1.23 |
| Carrasco | CLE | STL | 134 | 2.55 | 2.58 | 0.99 | 26.5% | 5.5% | 0.47 | 1.91 | |
| Buehrle | TOR | BAL | 202 | 3.39 | 4.32 | 1.36 | 60.0% | 13.9% | 5.4% | 0.67 | 1.29 |
| Tillman | BAL | TOR | 207.1 | 3.34 | 4.26 | 1.23 | 42.9% | 17.2% | 7.6% | 0.91 | 1.03 |
| Burnett | PIT | PHI | 213.2 | 4.59 | 4.00 | 1.41 | 38.1% | 20.3% | 10.3% | 0.84 | 1.78 |
| O’Sullivan | PHI | PIT | 12.2 | 6.39 | 4.31 | 1.34 | 13.5% | 3.9% | 2.13 | 1.00 | |
| Gibson | MIN | DET | 179.1 | 4.47 | 4.18 | 1.31 | 52.6% | 14.1% | 7.5% | 0.60 | 2.05 |
| Simon | DET | MIN | 196.1 | 3.44 | 4.17 | 1.21 | 63.2% | 15.5% | 6.9% | 1.01 | 1.57 |
| Eovaldi | NYY | TBR | 199.2 | 4.37 | 3.91 | 1.33 | 50.0% | 16.6% | 5.0% | 0.63 | 1.36 |
| Archer | TBR | NYY | 194.2 | 3.33 | 3.80 | 1.28 | 55.0% | 21.1% | 8.8% | 0.55 | 1.50 |
| Foltynewicz | ATL | CIN | |||||||||
| Desclafani | CIN | ATL | 33 | 6.27 | 3.70 | 1.36 | 20.0% | 17.8% | 3.4% | 1.09 | 0.88 |
| Volquez | KCR | TEX | 192.2 | 3.04 | 4.20 | 1.23 | 50.0% | 17.3% | 8.8% | 0.79 | 1.53 |
| Martinez | TEX | KCR | 140.1 | 4.55 | 5.22 | 1.46 | 27.3% | 12.6% | 9.0% | 1.15 | 0.70 |
| Syndergaard | NYM | CHC | |||||||||
| Arrieta | CHC | NYM | 156.2 | 2.53 | 2.83 | 0.99 | 50.0% | 27.2% | 6.7% | 0.29 | 1.73 |
| Sale | CWS | MIL | 174 | 2.17 | 2.56 | 0.97 | 64.3% | 30.4% | 5.7% | 0.67 | 0.99 |
| Fiers | MIL | CWS | 71.2 | 2.13 | 2.94 | 0.88 | 27.7% | 6.2% | 0.88 | 0.71 | |
| Heston | SFG | HOU | |||||||||
| McHugh | HOU | SFG | 154.2 | 2.73 | 3.14 | 1.02 | 42.9% | 25.4% | 6.6% | 0.76 | 1.25 |
| Strasburg | WAS | ARI | 215 | 3.14 | 2.64 | 1.12 | 52.4% | 27.9% | 5.0% | 0.96 | 1.46 |
| De La Rosa | ARI | WAS | 101.2 | 4.43 | 4.21 | 1.49 | 57.1% | 16.8% | 7.9% | 1.06 | 1.42 |
| Masterson | BOS | OAK | 128.2 | 5.88 | 4.03 | 1.63 | 36.8% | 19.6% | 11.7% | 0.84 | 2.70 |
| Pomeranz | OAK | BOS | 69 | 2.35 | 3.62 | 1.12 | 25.0% | 23.0% | 9.4% | 0.91 | 1.27 |
| Kendrick | COL | LAA | 199 | 4.61 | 4.45 | 1.36 | 30.0% | 14.0% | 6.6% | 1.13 | 1.29 |
| Wilson | LAA | COL | 175.2 | 4.51 | 4.23 | 1.45 | 42.1% | 19.8% | 11.2% | 0.87 | 1.62 |
| Kennedy | SDP | SEA | 201 | 3.63 | 3.47 | 1.29 | 47.6% | 24.5% | 8.3% | 0.72 | 1.05 |
| Paxton | SEA | SDP | 74 | 3.04 | 3.80 | 1.20 | 50.0% | 19.5% | 9.6% | 0.36 | 2.43 |
| Haren | MIA | LAD | 186 | 4.02 | 3.74 | 1.18 | 30.0% | 18.7% | 4.6% | 1.31 | 1.06 |
| Bolsinger | LAD | MIA | 52.1 | 5.50 | 3.49 | 1.59 | 33.3% | 20.2% | 7.1% | 1.20 | 2.00 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
There are a couple of arms who are typical all-in’s today (such as Chris Sale and Stephen Strasburg), but their recent struggles and potential injury ties will keep me from committing all my chips until the next time around. Not to fret, though, because there are a plethora of options for raising today.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Chris Sale CHW (at MIL) – The bludgeoning that Sale took two starts ago was seemingly a fluke, but he followed it up with a legitimate stinker, including five walks among 12 baserunners while getting just 15 outs on the day. He is also facing a Brewers offense that is starting to wake up after a month-long slumber, with Ryan Braun’s bat coming alive and Carlos Gomez coming back from the disabled list, both of whom have a strong career against left-handed pitchers. It will be critical that Sale has his command in tune for this game.
Jake Arrieta CHC (vs. NYM) – He has given up nine runs over his past two games covering 10.3 innings, but with a 13-to-two ratio of strikeouts to walks and just one homer allowed, we are left with the impression that he was the victim of the vagaries of balls in play. Arrieta was an absolute rock for his previous four starts, and I expect a performance that’s more in line with his peripheral stats.
Stephen Strasburg WAS (at ARI) – Strasburg has been an inconsistent mess this season, and though his strikeout and walk rates fall into the Arrieta category, the prognosis is different. Stras has struggled mightily to command his fastball to the left side of the plate, and combined with his playing in a rough ballpark on a hot day in Phoenix, the shoulder injury that cut Strasburg’s last outing short is just another reason for pessimism today.
Collin McHugh HOU (vs. SF) – McHugh has quietly been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball, and today he draws an interleague matchup with a struggling Giants squad that pales next to the club that won three of the last five World Series.
A.J. Burnett PIT (at PHI) – Burnett is consistent as they come this season, and he is facing the worst lineup in baseball. Any familiarity that the Philly hitters have with Burnett’s approach is easily counterbalanced by their general ineptitude at the plate.
Chris Archer TB (vs. NYY) – Archer was the bee’s knees a couple weeks ago, but consecutive disaster outings and an inability to hit targets have sent him off the rails. Archer will try to get back on track against the Yankees, a team that has rediscovered the power mojo of old.
Noah Syndergaard NYM (at CHC) – It’s always risky to roll with a rookie, but take a look at Syndergaard’s last three games – a 0.81 ERA across 22 innings, with 27 strikeouts and just two walks. He’s allowed just 11 hits in that span, all while pitching in PCL bandboxes like Las Vegas and Albuquerque. His might give up some runs against the high-powered Cubs, but they like to swing and Thor could find himself with a hefty strikeout total when all is said and done.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lynn | 0.314 | 2.98 | 0.284 | 2.57 | 0.247 | 0.701 | 0.290 | 3.35 | 0.235 | 104.55 | 20.9% |
| Carrasco | 0.236 | 2.51 | 0.252 | 2.60 | 0.279 | 0.762 | 0.274 | 2.44 | 0.207 | 48.90 | 26.5% |
| Buehrle | 0.318 | 3.48 | 0.332 | 3.35 | 0.306 | 0.798 | 0.316 | 3.66 | 0.283 | 96.31 | 13.9% |
| Tillman | 0.299 | 3.04 | 0.299 | 3.71 | 0.235 | 0.718 | 0.267 | 4.01 | 0.236 | 100.32 | 17.2% |
| Burnett | 0.350 | 5.22 | 0.316 | 4.06 | 0.207 | 0.567 | 0.302 | 4.14 | 0.249 | 102.12 | 20.3% |
| O’Sullivan | 0.234 | 0.642 | 0.300 | 5.58 | 0.3 | 0.00 | 13.5% | ||||
| Gibson | 0.315 | 4.11 | 0.291 | 4.84 | 0.291 | 0.803 | 0.287 | 3.80 | 0.255 | 90.32 | 14.1% |
| Simon | 0.313 | 3.92 | 0.296 | 2.97 | 0.231 | 0.623 | 0.265 | 4.33 | 0.241 | 94.19 | 15.5% |
| Eovaldi | 0.336 | 4.30 | 0.304 | 4.45 | 0.235 | 0.684 | 0.323 | 3.37 | 0.277 | 96.91 | 16.6% |
| Archer | 0.283 | 2.67 | 0.307 | 4.21 | 0.228 | 0.694 | 0.296 | 3.39 | 0.239 | 98.75 | 21.1% |
| Foltynewicz | 0.224 | 0.691 | |||||||||
| Desclafani | 0.391 | 6.89 | 0.307 | 5.71 | 0.255 | 0.707 | 0.330 | 3.77 | 0.288 | 0.00 | 17.8% |
| Volquez | 0.321 | 3.44 | 0.286 | 2.74 | 0.193 | 0.559 | 0.263 | 4.15 | 0.229 | 93.03 | 17.3% |
| Martinez | 0.366 | 4.54 | 0.326 | 4.57 | 0.311 | 0.817 | 0.289 | 4.94 | 0.272 | 82.93 | 12.6% |
| Syndergaard | 0.242 | 0.694 | |||||||||
| Arrieta | 0.251 | 2.18 | 0.234 | 2.81 | 0.235 | 0.653 | 0.274 | 2.26 | 0.2 | 96.64 | 27.2% |
| Sale | 0.183 | 0.00 | 0.272 | 2.71 | 0.198 | 0.488 | 0.280 | 2.57 | 0.203 | 105.88 | 30.4% |
| Fiers | 0.234 | 2.23 | 0.240 | 2.06 | 0.256 | 0.679 | 0.224 | 2.99 | 0.179 | 80.14 | 27.7% |
| Heston | 0.244 | 0.747 | |||||||||
| McHugh | 0.272 | 2.58 | 0.252 | 2.95 | 0.245 | 0.673 | 0.259 | 3.11 | 0.205 | 99.44 | 25.4% |
| Strasburg | 0.287 | 2.75 | 0.302 | 3.45 | 0.256 | 0.693 | 0.315 | 2.94 | 0.241 | 96.91 | 27.9% |
| De La Rosa | 0.364 | 4.25 | 0.348 | 4.62 | 0.239 | 0.669 | 0.327 | 4.30 | 0.287 | 92.16 | 16.8% |
| Masterson | 0.400 | 6.68 | 0.332 | 4.99 | 0.279 | 0.767 | 0.339 | 4.50 | 0.278 | 0.00 | 19.6% |
| Pomeranz | 0.300 | 1.20 | 0.259 | 2.67 | 0.200 | 0.701 | 0.244 | 3.77 | 0.203 | 56.90 | 23.0% |
| Kendrick | 0.360 | 5.34 | 0.321 | 4.08 | 0.227 | 0.624 | 0.290 | 4.57 | 0.269 | 96.94 | 14.0% |
| Wilson | 0.266 | 3.99 | 0.345 | 4.70 | 0.259 | 0.726 | 0.306 | 4.31 | 0.254 | 100.26 | 19.8% |
| Kennedy | 0.304 | 3.38 | 0.314 | 3.85 | 0.234 | 0.660 | 0.315 | 3.21 | 0.245 | 103.09 | 24.5% |
| Paxton | 0.251 | 1.46 | 0.281 | 3.36 | 0.309 | 0.801 | 0.270 | 3.28 | 0.22 | 90.92 | 19.5% |
| Haren | 0.290 | 3.42 | 0.333 | 4.63 | 0.275 | 0.876 | 0.276 | 4.09 | 0.248 | 96.75 | 18.7% |
| Bolsinger | 0.389 | 7.04 | 0.363 | 4.30 | 0.261 | 0.676 | 0.355 | 4.01 | 0.299 | 84.50 | 20.2% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
*Anthony DeSclafani CIN (vs. ATL) – DeSclafani gets a friendly matchup with the Braves, whose K-to-walk ratio of 1.8-to-one fails to support his 2,50 ERA. I like DeSclafani, but regression can be a powerful magnet.
Nate Eovaldi NYY (at TB) – Captain Eo’s new split has been effective this season, but it hasn’t made the difference to his approach that was optimistically anticipated. He’s still in the early stages of development on the pitch, so it could take time to see the results.
Mike Fiers MIL (vs. CHW) – Fiers has been as inconsistent as they come, the ultimate risk/reward play that could get you double-digit strikeouts just as easily as he could surrender a run per inning. Believe it or not, more than one-fifth of his runs have been unearned.
Edinson Volquez KC (at TEX)
Ian Kennedy SD (at SEA)
C.J. Wilson LAA (vs. COL) – The Rox have been struggling to hit during their current nine-game losing streak, and the lefty-heavy lineup could give way to the southpaw Wilson, with only Troy Tulowitzki and Nolan Arenado to carry the platoon torch for Colorado.
James Paxton SEA (vs. SD) – The Pads are stacked to feast on southpaws, and Paxton’s recent struggles just makes him ripe for the plucking.
Dan Haren MIA (at LAD)
Nick Martinez TEX (vs. KC)
Chris Heston SF (at HOU)
Alfredo Simon DET (vs. MIN)
Mike Foltynewicz ATL (at CIN)
Rubby De La Rosa ARI (vs. WAS)
FOLD:
“Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.”
Chris Tillman BAL (at TOR)
Mark Buehrle TOR (vs. BAL)
Drew Pomeranz OAK (vs. BOS)
Mike Bolsinger LAD (vs. MIA)
Justin Masterson BOS (at OAK)
Kyle Gibson MIN (at DET)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window