Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, May 19th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-05-22 13:37:53

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Nolasco	MIN	PIT	177.1	5.48	4.13	1.55	16.7%	16.5%	6.0%	1.12	1.17
Liriano	PIT	MIN	208	3.29	3.58	1.24	12.5%	25.8%	11.5%	0.74	1.94
Walker	SEA	BAL	71.2	4.77	4.09	1.49		21.0%	10.3%	1.00	1.32
Gonzalez	BAL	SEA	202	3.16	4.38	1.26	40.0%	17.1%	8.0%	1.29	0.94
Eovaldi	NYY	WAS	241	4.33	3.93	1.36	50.0%	16.8%	5.2%	0.71	1.40
Gonzalez	WAS	NYY	201	3.72	3.46	1.27	46.7%	24.3%	8.6%	0.49	1.47
Santiago	LAA	TOR	168.1	3.42	4.34	1.34	16.7%	20.4%	9.9%	1.02	0.63
Sanchez	TOR	LAA	71	2.79	4.26	1.18		17.8%	13.0%	0.63	2.88
Nelson	MIL	DET	112	4.66	3.75	1.34		19.8%	6.9%	0.96	1.49
Sanchez	DET	MIL	177	3.81	3.68	1.12	41.2%	20.4%	5.9%	0.51	1.16
Ramirez	TBR	ATL	99.2	5.60	4.37	1.49	27.3%	18.1%	9.7%	1.35	1.07
Foltynewicz	ATL	TBR	35.2	4.79	4.60	1.65		18.6%	10.6%	1.26	0.55
Hellickson	ARI	MIA	101.2	5.05	4.27	1.53		17.9%	7.9%	1.15	1.02
Koehler	MIA	ARI	233.1	3.90	4.20	1.29	52.6%	19.0%	8.8%	0.89	1.08
Gallardo	TEX	BOS	238	3.59	3.87	1.30	50.0%	17.6%	6.8%	0.98	1.73
Miley	BOS	TEX	236.2	4.53	3.88	1.42	33.3%	20.1%	8.9%	0.99	1.68
Wacha	STL	NYM	150.2	2.87	3.89	1.16	53.3%	19.1%	6.8%	0.54	1.32
Niese	NYM	STL	231	3.23	3.84	1.29	41.2%	16.8%	5.8%	0.82	1.78
Gray	OAK	HOU	275	2.78	3.53	1.14	60.0%	21.2%	8.0%	0.52	1.99
Hernandez	HOU	OAK	208.1	4.10	4.66	1.35	35.3%	13.9%	9.5%	1.08	1.72
Bauer	CLE	CWS	194.2	4.07	3.94	1.36	38.5%	22.3%	9.4%	0.88	0.86
Quintana	CWS	CLE	241.1	3.51	3.49	1.25	50.0%	21.7%	6.2%	0.48	1.34
Cueto	CIN	KCR	302	2.38	3.16	0.95	76.2%	25.1%	6.4%	0.86	1.29
Ventura	KCR	CIN	223.1	3.59	3.92	1.31	44.4%	19.9%	8.8%	0.81	1.61
Harang	PHI	COL	257.2	3.25	4.16	1.31	75.0%	18.3%	7.5%	0.59	0.97
Bettis	COL	PHI	29.2	8.80	4.79	2.12		10.5%	9.2%	1.21	1.65
Hammel	CHC	SDP	222.2	3.40	3.46	1.10	47.4%	22.2%	5.6%	1.13	1.05
Shields	SDP	CHC	275.1	3.33	3.44	1.20	42.9%	21.3%	5.2%	1.14	1.29
Frias	LAD	SFG	51	4.94	3.02	1.22		20.9%	5.1%	0.88	1.89
Hudson	SFG	LAD	234.2	3.76	3.76	1.25	68.4%	14.6%	4.6%	0.88	2.14

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Nobody quite meets the All-in threshold today, but the result is a Raise section that is abnormally thick.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Sonny Gray OAK (at HOU) – The strikeout and walk rates both turned in the wrong direction last season, but Gray has gotten back on the right track statistically. His rates of hits, homers, and walks allowed all qualify as career lows, and Gray has punched out nearly a batter per inning this season. He has been piling up the strikeouts since the calendar flipped to May, with 28 K’s in 19.7 innings of work across his last three starts, and he’s only allowed more than two runs once this year out of his eight turns. He has made the slider a more prominent piece of his repertoire this season with incredible results, including 33 of his 53 strikeouts and just four hits in 57 at bats that have ended with the pitch. Expect the K’s to continue to pile against the American League’s most whiff-tastic team.

Johnny Cueto CIN (at KC) – Cueto entered the 2014 season with serious questions surrounding his durability, but the critics have quieted in the wake of a season in which his 243.3 innings led the National League and he’s turning the trick again this year, pacing the circuit in 2015 with 58.3 innings pitched. Cueto is worthy of All-in consideration for many of his starts, and though I am less concerned with his recent proclivity to give up the longball (six homers allowed in last four games), the free-swinging Royals are a formidable opponent for a pitcher who lives in and around the strike zone.

James Shields SD (vs. CHC) – Shields has taken on a distinct persona this season, trading in a few zeroes on the scoreboard as the strikeouts continue to pile, and today he looks to build further on his career-best K rate of 30.9 percent in a matchup with the Cubs, a team whose batters lead the majors with 363 punchouts and nearly 10 whiffs per game. The top three on today’s list are very close in value, with a small gap between them and the next three pitchers on the list.

Francisco Liriano PIT (vs. MIN) – Liriano gets to stick it to the team that he came up with in this interleague matchup. It’s the third time that Liriano has started a game against the Twins, and the first two adventures went exceedingly well: 13.0 innings with 17 strikeouts against six walks and just five hits. He whiffed seven or more batters in all four starts during April but Liriano has turned that particular trick just once in May, and that start involved six runs crossing the plate. The Twins present a good matchup for Liriano given the number of middle-order hitters that hail from the left side, though Oswaldo Arcia is on the disabled list and Kennys Vargas has failed to be a threat this season, so the boost to hitters like Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe will off-set a diminished Joe Mauer.

Gio Gonzalez WAS (vs. NYY) – Gio’s stats are pretty much in line with his previous seasons with Washington, including a K-per-inning and more walks than your average hurler. He has squelched hits and homers throughout his career, and though the homer rate is still clicking along (just one allowed through 42.3 innings thus far), Gonzalez has suddenly seen his hit rate spike. He has defied regression to his hit rate for years, but the hit rate has been paired with roughly league-average rates on his BABIP, clicking along at .286 before this season’s .390 BABIP came out of nowhere and tarnished what had been an excellent level of consistency. Some might see this season as regression bringing things back in line, but regression is more likely to bring his hit rate back below 8.0 safeties-per-nine than it is to stay at the 10.4 H/9 level where it currently resides.

Michael Wacha STL (at NYM) – Wacha has only struck out more than four batters on two occasions this season but his biggest K game came in his last turn, with seven punchouts through five frames to mark the first time that his whiffs had outpaced his innings this year. He has kept his ERA intact by limiting the free passes, keeping opposing lineups to two walks or fewer en each start this season, and he has allowed exactly five or six hits in all seven starts. The 2.06 ERA comes packaged with five quality starts and two runs or fewer in all but one turn this year. The lack of a breaking ball was an issue for Wacha in the past, but he has since added a pair of snappers to give opposing batters more options to think about when in the midst of a chess match with Wacha.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Nolasco	0.388	5.40	0.360	5.56	0.234	0.642	0.356	4.19	0.312	0.00	16.5%
Liriano	0.322	4.24	0.273	3.06	0.262	0.672	0.267	3.55	0.205	94.36	25.8%
Walker	0.358	4.25	0.305	5.52	0.281	0.835	0.320	4.31	0.263	82.73	21.0%
Gonzalez	0.332	2.94	0.307	3.41	0.234	0.660	0.266	4.73	0.243	95.00	17.1%
Eovaldi	0.345	4.49	0.305	4.17	0.239	0.669	0.326	3.50	0.281	97.20	16.8%
Gonzalez	0.287	3.46	0.308	3.81	0.266	0.837	0.315	2.97	0.24	97.68	24.3%
Santiago	0.265	2.44	0.322	3.86	0.299	0.831	0.282	4.21	0.239	80.95	20.4%
Sanchez	0.360	4.20	0.193	1.76	0.227	0.624	0.210	4.32	0.183	36.16	17.8%
Nelson	0.356	5.23	0.314	4.18	0.291	0.803	0.317	3.99	0.267	82.95	19.8%
Sanchez	0.262	2.83	0.298	5.25	0.232	0.650	0.280	3.00	0.23	96.83	20.4%
Ramirez	0.335	4.82	0.374	6.60	0.255	0.707	0.306	5.02	0.27	0.00	18.1%
Foltynewicz	0.463	6.06	0.270	3.72	0.235	0.684	0.339	4.71	0.292	32.89	18.6%
Hellickson	0.329	4.70	0.381	5.40	0.261	0.676	0.330	4.34	0.286	0.00	17.9%
Koehler	0.308	3.80	0.316	3.99	0.256	0.693	0.285	4.03	0.244	90.13	19.0%
Gallardo	0.299	3.03	0.317	4.05	0.257	0.714	0.291	3.98	0.256	99.83	17.6%
Miley	0.322	5.77	0.334	4.17	0.240	0.700	0.314	4.03	0.263	95.78	20.1%
Wacha	0.276	3.04	0.290	2.70	0.235	0.653	0.273	3.32	0.228	91.08	19.1%
Niese	0.295	3.75	0.329	3.06	0.250	0.673	0.302	3.76	0.263	93.27	16.8%
Gray	0.276	2.61	0.265	2.98	0.244	0.747	0.272	3.24	0.22	100.32	21.2%
Hernandez	0.325	3.64	0.328	4.50	0.279	0.767	0.261	4.86	0.244	86.82	13.9%
Bauer	0.320	4.40	0.321	3.75	0.256	0.679	0.309	3.89	0.249	99.39	22.3%
Quintana	0.288	4.62	0.303	3.10	0.226	0.638	0.322	2.87	0.257	104.28	21.7%
Cueto	0.252	2.01	0.267	2.72	0.311	0.817	0.238	3.33	0.193	106.69	25.1%
Ventura	0.300	3.23	0.322	4.07	0.224	0.691	0.290	3.84	0.243	95.00	19.9%
Harang	0.318	2.75	0.298	3.67	0.284	0.772	0.306	3.42	0.257	102.02	18.3%
Bettis	0.420	9.42	0.450	8.22	0.207	0.567	0.381	5.33	0.355	0.00	10.5%
Hammel	0.303	2.75	0.289	3.88	0.244	0.694	0.272	3.81	0.232	93.30	22.2%
Shields	0.321	3.12	0.315	3.56	0.242	0.694	0.297	3.81	0.253	105.64	21.3%
Frias	0.377	8.66	0.233	2.97	0.245	0.673	0.301	3.35	0.251	38.90	20.9%
Hudson	0.336	3.87	0.302	3.66	0.275	0.876	0.299	3.88	0.27	90.08	14.6%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Jose Quintana CHW (vs. CLE) – The southpaw will likely be living down that disaster start against Detroit for another month before his numbers start to shake off the rust, but he has allowed two or fewer runs in five of his last six starts and four in a row. He punched out 10 Brewers in his last start against one walk, and his season-long K:BB ratio of 39:10 in 41 frames is more indicative of his skill level than the inflated 4.39 ERA.

Trevor Bauer CLE (at CHW) – Bauer is the ultimate boom or bust candidate, providing an equal likelihood of a double-digit strikeout performance or a short outing that is defined by missed targets. He’s allowed three homers in his last four starts, and though his last-start rebound versus the Cardinals was more than encouraging, the truth is that neither DFS gamers nor Bauer himself can be sure which version of the temperamental turner will take the mound versus the White Sox today.

Yordano Ventura KC (vs. CIN) – The this just keep on comin’ as Ventura’s greatest asset – pitch-speed – has been diminished from formerly-elite velocity to its current state as merely plus. This wouldn’t be such a concern if Ventura was able to hit his spots and move the baseball around the strike zone, but the right-hander has lacked pitch command as well as raw stuff. He’s now given up four or more runs four times in seven starts, including three in a row and four of the last five, and he has left the circle of trust until the high-octane stuff that first established his value returns to the mound.

Anibal Sanchez DET (vs. MIL) – The component stats are right in line with previous seasons, including a 21.7-percent K rate and walks to 6.1-percent of the batters that he’s faced, both of which are better than his career averages. His overall line has been sabotaged by early-April homers, as he coughed up five bombs in his first three turns (including his nine-run disaster against the White Sox) but has only given up one homer in his last five games covering 34.7 innings. The Brewers are a more formidable opponent than they were a few weeks ago, but Anibal also poses a bigger threat.

Carlos Frias LAD (at SF) – Frias continues to build the pitch count as he transitions out of the bullpen, with a progression of 70-84-97 pitches across his three starts. Frias could go over the century mark against the rival Giants, and most impressive has been the mere three walks that the right-hander has allowed across 16.3 innings as a starter, riding his high-90s fastball to 14 strikeouts during that span.Frias essentially has a single gear, with 92-percent of his pitches coming in at 90 mph or greater, and he could be in for a rude awakening once major-league hitters adjust to his velocity.

Nathan Eovaldi NYY (at WAS) – Captain Eo finally added an off-speed pitch that he uses regularly, and he has greatly increased his usage of the splitter over his last few starts – he threw 14 splits in his last start after tossing 14 total across his first three turns. The results have been less than encouraging, however, as his best games from a run-prevention standpoint have been those where the split stayed in his back pocket. He has proven to be easy to hit despite elite velocity, and the continuous struggles with harnessing his considerable stuff plant the seeds of doubt that Eovaldi can make the statistical leap that the fantasy community has been waiting to see for the last few years.

Jason Hammel CHC (at SD) – He;s been excellent this season, channeling the success that he had with the Cubs for the first half of 2014 before leaving town via trade midseason, indicating that Chris working with pitching coach Chris Bosio has been integral in extracting the best from Hammel in the past two seasons. The walk rate is up a bit in May – after walking just one batter through his first four starts he has walked five men across his last three turns – but even during his more generous stretch Hammel has managed a minimal walk rate of 6.3 percent. He faces a tough Padre offense in today’s game, a lineup that tagged him for four earned runs – Hammel’s most of the season – when they met back on April 17th.

Miguel Gonzalez BAL (vs. SEA)
Aaron Sanchez TOR (vs. LAA)
Jimmy Nelson MIL (at DET)
Tim Hudson SF (vs. LAD)
Jon Niese NYM (vs. STL)
Yovani Gallardo TEX (at BOS)
Tom Koehler MIA (vs. ARI)
Mike Foltynewicz ATL (vs. TB)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

There are several pitchers to avoid today when rostering the moundsmen, but that also means that there are several intriguing stacking options for today.

Roberto Hernandez HOU (vs. OAK)
Erasmo Ramirez TB (at ATL)
Taijuan Walker SEA (at BAL)
Jeremy Hellickson ARI (at MIA)
Aaron Harang PHI (at COL)
Ricky Nolasco MIN (at PIT)
Chad Bettis COL (vs. PHI)
Hector Santiago LAA (at TOR)
Wade Miley BOS (vs. TEX)

Starting Pitcher Salaries

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window