Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, May 26th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-05-29 15:07:36

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Vargas	KCR	NYY	212.2	3.89	4.27	1.30	68.4%	15.7%	5.7%	0.97	0.99
Warren	NYY	KCR	116.2	3.47	3.57	1.20		20.5%	7.9%	0.54	1.47
Feldman	HOU	BAL	228.1	4.02	4.21	1.31	47.1%	14.5%	6.2%	0.87	1.64
Tillman	BAL	HOU	245.2	3.81	4.39	1.29	42.9%	17.0%	8.2%	0.99	1.03
Urena	MIA	PIT
Locke	PIT	MIA	171.1	4.25	4.11	1.31	66.7%	16.5%	7.5%	1.10	1.69
Zimmermann	WAS	CHC	246.1	2.85	3.37	1.12	52.6%	21.3%	3.9%	0.55	1.12
Hendricks	CHC	WAS	117	3.31	4.00	1.16		16.1%	5.0%	0.62	1.41
Danks	CWS	TOR	232.1	4.73	4.62	1.43	50.0%	15.4%	8.4%	1.20	1.03
Dickey	TOR	CWS	265.2	4.10	4.32	1.25	47.6%	17.4%	8.2%	1.19	1.14
Williams	PHI	NYM	158	4.84	4.11	1.44		15.9%	6.5%	1.08	1.33
Degrom	NYM	PHI	188	2.82	3.33	1.18	50.0%	24.4%	7.3%	0.62	1.38
Rodriguez	TEX	CLE	54.2	5.27	4.26	1.45		18.0%	7.8%	1.98	1.04
Salazar	CLE	TEX	147.2	4.21	3.02	1.29	12.5%	27.4%	6.5%	1.22	0.88
De La Rosa	COL	CIN	207.2	4.38	4.00	1.28	40.0%	18.9%	9.0%	0.95	1.75
Lorenzen	CIN	COL	18	4.00	5.38	1.72		13.1%	11.9%	2.00	1.33
Happ	SEA	TBR	203.1	3.94	3.91	1.29	30.8%	19.6%	7.0%	1.15	1.07
Colome	TBR	SEA	43	4.19	4.28	1.28		16.2%	6.7%	1.05	1.10
Buchholz	BOS	MIN	216	5.25	3.79	1.38	33.3%	19.9%	7.2%	0.88	1.40
Pelfrey	MIN	BOS	62.2	5.03	5.58	1.61		9.3%	11.3%	1.15	1.70
Bumgarner	SFG	MIL	268	3.02	3.07	1.09	47.6%	24.5%	4.7%	0.91	1.20
Garza	MIL	SFG	209	4.09	4.15	1.27	35.0%	18.2%	8.1%	0.86	1.30
Bradley	ARI	STL	22	3.27	5.36	1.27		16.3%	15.2%	0.41	1.67
Garcia	STL	ARI	43.2	4.12	2.85	1.05	28.6%	22.0%	4.0%	1.24	2.19
Despaigne	SDP	LAA	125.2	4.15	4.31	1.26	100.0%	14.5%	7.7%	0.72	1.80
Shoemaker	LAA	SDP	174.1	3.61	3.24	1.10	44.4%	23.1%	4.4%	1.29	0.93
Price	DET	OAK	301.1	3.29	2.94	1.11	52.4%	25.4%	4.1%	0.93	1.07
Chavez	OAK	DET	183.2	3.28	3.65	1.27	52.6%	22.1%	7.9%	0.88	1.16
Teheran	ATL	LAD	264.2	3.13	3.77	1.17	70.0%	20.8%	6.4%	1.05	0.86
Kershaw	LAD	ATL	249.1	2.27	2.17	0.93	66.7%	31.7%	4.7%	0.51	1.90

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Clayton Kershaw LAD (vs. ATL) – Some of the shine has worn off of his badge, but Kershaw remains one of the toughest gunslingers in the game. It appeared as though he was back on track as the team closed out the month of April, but Kershaw’s season-long funk continued into his last few starts with four consecutive turns of three or more earned runs while generating 22 outs or fewer in each contest. Those are lofty goals for most anyone, but Kersh has not had such a difficult string of run prevention since early summer of 2012.

Madison Bumgarner SF (at MIL) – Following an epic postseason run that brought his combined total to 270 innings pitched during the 2014 regular season and playoffs, Bumgarner lured the naysayers with a slow start to the 2015 campaign, but he has rebounded to post a 1.80 ERA with 41 strikeouts against eight walks over his last six starts, stats that are more reminiscent of the Bumgarner of old. He is facing a Brewers lineup that has started to hit its stride, including a couple of lefty-mashers in Ryan Braun and Carlos Gomez, but opponents matter less when Bumgarner is on his game and locating baseballs both in and out of the strike zone.

David Price DET (at OAK) – With a 3.34 ERA through his first nine starts of the season, Price’s run prevention numbers match his peripherals for the first time since his rookie year. The K rate is down, the walk rate is up, and though Price still owns a 4-to-1 ratio of good-to-bad, he has also given up 11 runs and 25 hits over his 18.7 innings of work. Today he faces an Oakland club that has been feast-or-famine on a game-by-game basis throughout 2015, and the fact that Athletics’ hitters have an OPS that is 169 points lower against southpaws this season gives more reason to believe that today’s outing will fall into the “good” bucket for Price and the Tigers.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Danny Salazar CLE (vs. TEX) – The Rangers have been on a tear lately, winning six games in a row and scoring the 45 runs during the streak. All told, the Rangers have scored the third-most runs in the AL this season, and the recent reemergence of Prince Fielder as a veritable power threat (four homers in his last four games and seven longballs in his last 14 contests) changes the dynamic as a pitcher prepares to faces Texas. Salazar has been racking up the strikeouts this season, with 60 K’s against just 9 walks in in 43.7 innings, and though his efficiency leaves much to be desired, the final tally has been extremely productive in the DFS game. He has thrown six full innings or more in all but a single start this year, and Salazar might fall short of 18 outs today, such an outing does not preclude Salazar from double-digit strikeouts.

Jacob deGrom NYM (vs. PHI) – deGrom was nothing shot of dominant in his last turn on the rubber, limiting the deep St. Louis lineup to just one hit and no walks while punching out 11 batters in eight innings of work. He;s had a few stinkers this season, but deGrom has allowed less than two runs in three of his last four starts and is a good bet to continue that string today against a weak Phillies lineup. He may want to avoid the red-hot Ryan Howard, but the Philadelphia lineup will pose little threat outside of the Subway sandwich spokesman.

Jordan Zimmermann WAS (at CHC) – The K rate has been extremely disappointing for his fantasy owners this season, but Zimmermann has shown signs of increasing life with seven consecutive quality starts. He has been especially productive since the calendar flipped to May, and with a dozen strikeouts over his last two starts Zimmermann is starting to add a dose of upside to the solid-yet-underwhelming performance to begin the season. He has gone six or more innings in all but one start this season and is facing a Cubs team that leads baseball in batter strikeouts, so tonight’s contest is shaping up to be the first outing of 2015 in which Zimm’s K count exceeds his number of frames. His velocity was noticeably down for his first few starts of 2015, but the right-hander’s average pitch-speed on fastballs has crept back to previously-established levels in his last few turns to add a couple mph of optimism to his profile.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Vargas	0.313	3.42	0.320	4.05	0.266	0.837	0.297	4.01	0.266	98.06	15.7%
Warren	0.254	3.06	0.316	3.82	0.311	0.817	0.283	3.30	0.231	25.99	20.5%
Feldman	0.312	3.07	0.334	5.13	0.281	0.835	0.296	4.10	0.267	101.59	14.5%
Tillman	0.311	3.14	0.315	4.55	0.244	0.747	0.276	4.23	0.245	99.61	17.0%
Urena	0.000	0.00	0.732	27.00	0.234	0.642
Locke	0.281	3.82	0.337	4.38	0.276	0.758	0.288	4.37	0.259	93.86	16.5%
Zimmermann	0.303	3.19	0.264	2.54	0.242	0.694	0.307	2.78	0.249	90.95	21.3%
Hendricks	0.296	3.02	0.288	3.55	0.239	0.669	0.287	3.51	0.25	88.20	16.1%
Danks	0.306	4.29	0.361	4.89	0.299	0.831	0.291	4.76	0.265	101.08	15.4%
Dickey	0.309	3.34	0.328	4.74	0.256	0.679	0.260	4.61	0.235	102.74	17.4%
Williams	0.352	4.89	0.332	4.80	0.235	0.653	0.320	4.30	0.285	56.00	15.9%
Degrom	0.314	2.58	0.256	3.01	0.207	0.567	0.299	2.99	0.233	100.23	24.4%
Rodriguez	0.400	7.00	0.362	4.93	0.226	0.638	0.287	5.59	0.269	0.00	18.0%
Salazar	0.301	3.59	0.341	4.66	0.193	0.559	0.335	3.52	0.259	95.50	27.4%
De La Rosa	0.246	3.23	0.337	4.72	0.224	0.668	0.273	4.19	0.236	94.22	18.9%
Lorenzen	0.455	6.35	0.352	2.92	0.284	0.772	0.293	6.65	0.288	83.75	13.1%
Happ	0.354	4.04	0.318	3.91	0.246	0.736	0.293	4.06	0.254	91.27	19.6%
Colome	0.323	4.88	0.299	3.32	0.234	0.660	0.288	4.21	0.259	75.89	16.2%
Buchholz	0.338	4.73	0.319	5.92	0.231	0.623	0.324	3.77	0.27	0.00	19.9%
Pelfrey	0.288	3.44	0.435	7.27	0.257	0.714	0.279	5.90	0.272	0.00	9.3%
Bumgarner	0.246	1.71	0.299	3.34	0.198	0.488	0.294	3.14	0.237	101.63	24.5%
Garza	0.303	3.41	0.305	4.63	0.245	0.673	0.275	3.94	0.239	93.83	18.2%
Bradley	0.272	1.98	0.276	5.40	0.279	0.762	0.213	4.42	0.182	77.80	16.3%
Garcia	0.389	7.20	0.278	3.21	0.256	0.695	0.270	3.82	0.234	90.14	22.0%
Despaigne	0.308	3.15	0.302	5.07	0.227	0.624	0.270	4.12	0.242	85.13	14.5%
Shoemaker	0.319	4.25	0.291	2.92	0.244	0.694	0.283	3.78	0.241	78.12	23.1%
Price	0.296	3.03	0.287	3.38	0.206	0.543	0.304	2.95	0.241	108.69	25.4%
Chavez	0.291	2.74	0.308	3.97	0.291	0.803	0.297	3.64	0.243	72.44	22.1%
Teheran	0.330	3.50	0.275	2.79	0.275	0.876	0.279	3.83	0.239	98.49	20.8%
Kershaw	0.235	2.05	0.252	2.33	0.238	0.682	0.293	2.00	0.206	100.57	31.7%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Julio Teheran ATL (at. LAD) – After flashing surprising consistency over the past two campaigns, Teheran has taken a massive step backwards this season. With more than 50 innings under his belt in 2015, Teheran is on pace for a much higher rate of hits, homers, and walks allowed than what he posted in 2013-14, with a WHIP that has swelled by 0.32 over what the right-hander established over his previous 407.7 innings. He has a league-average ERA yet a FIP that’s a full run higher, thanks to an astounding seven unearned runs already this season, and the Dodgers will look to break out of the offensive funk that has hovered over the last week of ballgames.

Clay Buchholz BOS (at MIN) – Buchholz is one of the most frustrating pitchers in fantasy and is a dangerous play in DFS, as the right-hander is more likely to get torched for five or more runs (14 times since the start of 2014) than he is to toss a half-dozen effective frames. Buchholz gets the luxury of facing the Twins today, a team that has scored 204 runs this season to keep pace with most of the circuit’s top-scoring offenses, including 15 tallies in their last two games.

Archie Bradley ARI (at STL) – Bradley allowed just three runs over his first 18.7 innings in the bigs, but the underlying stats (14 strikeouts and 11 walks) painted a different picture than his early-season ERA. Regression has come back to haunt Bradley in a big way, and though it is easy to pinpoint the comebacker on April 28 that sent Bradley to the DL, fact is that he was due for a correction. The D’backs will hope that Bradley can better control the strike zone (he has 16 walks in his first 27 big-league frames), but the Cardinals present an imposing task for the young right-hander.

Jesse Chavez OAK (vs. DET) – Chavez has been very effective this season, with quality starts in his four of his six turns to begin ballgames this season. His price tag is still low on many DFS outlets, a reflection of his early-season work out of the bullpen, but Chavez has been stretched out to 97 or more pitches in each of his last three outings to help quell any workload-related fears to his ownership. The scarier aspect is the team that Chavez is facing today, with a Detroit lineup that can put crooked numbers on the scoreboard in the blink of an eye.

Kyle Hendricks CHC (vs. WAS) – The walk rate is just as low as it was last season, and though his K rate and ERA appear to have an inverse relationship when looking at the sample from the past two years, the underlying FIP has been remarkably stable, essentially coming in as the average of his ERA marks in 2014 and ’15. He faces the Nats today, a team that has found an extra gear as Bryce Harper blossoms to the Hall of Fame-caliber player that has been expected of him since puberty and the other bats in the Washington lineup recover from injuries that left the offense at half-mast to start the season. Anthony Rendon is the final piece of that puzzle, but the Nats are a much more formidable opponent today than they were one month ago.

J.A. Happ SEA (at TB)
Alex Colome TB (vs. SEA)
Chris Tillman BAL (vs. HOU)
Matt Shoemaker LAA (vs. SD)
Adam Warren NYY (vs. KC)
Wandy Rodriguez TEX (at CLE)
Jaime Garcia STL (vs. ARI)
Mike Pelfrey MIN (vs. BOS)
Odrisamer Despaigne SD (at LAA)
Michael Lorenzen CIN (vs. COL)
Jose Urena MIA (at PIT)
Jorge De La Rosa COL (at CIN)
Jerome Williams PHI (at NYM)

Editor’s Note: Jorge De La Rosa has been scratched from today’s game. Chris Rusin will start in his place.

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Scott Feldman HOU (at BAL)
R.A. Dickey TOR (vs. CHW)
Matt Garza MIL (vs. SF)
Jason Vargas KC (at NYY)
Jeff Locke PIT (vs. MIA)
John Danks CHW (at TOR)

Starting Pitcher Salaries

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