Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, May 5th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latos | MIA | WAS | 102.1 | 3.25 | 4.08 | 1.15 | 66.7% | 17.6% | 6.2% | 0.79 | 0.94 |
| Strasburg | WAS | MIA | 215 | 3.14 | 2.64 | 1.12 | 52.4% | 27.9% | 5.0% | 0.96 | 1.46 |
| Lorenzen | CIN | PIT | |||||||||
| Locke | PIT | CIN | 131.1 | 3.91 | 4.07 | 1.27 | 66.7% | 16.2% | 7.3% | 1.10 | 1.71 |
| Pineda | NYY | TOR | 76.1 | 1.89 | 3.38 | 0.83 | 75.0% | 20.3% | 2.4% | 0.59 | 0.92 |
| Estrada | TOR | NYY | 150.2 | 4.36 | 3.90 | 1.20 | 27.8% | 20.4% | 7.1% | 1.73 | 0.66 |
| Billingsley | PHI | ATL | |||||||||
| Miller | ATL | PHI | 183 | 3.74 | 4.60 | 1.27 | 21.1% | 16.6% | 9.6% | 1.08 | 0.97 |
| Norris | BAL | NYM | 165.1 | 3.65 | 3.86 | 1.22 | 26.7% | 20.2% | 7.6% | 1.09 | 1.13 |
| Colon | NYM | BAL | 202.1 | 4.09 | 3.75 | 1.23 | 42.1% | 17.9% | 3.6% | 0.98 | 1.02 |
| Smyly | TBR | BOS | 153 | 3.24 | 3.69 | 1.16 | 50.0% | 21.5% | 6.8% | 1.06 | 0.84 |
| Porcello | BOS | TBR | 204.2 | 3.43 | 3.88 | 1.23 | 55.6% | 15.4% | 4.9% | 0.79 | 1.69 |
| Rodriguez | TEX | HOU | 26.2 | 6.75 | 4.29 | 1.69 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 3.38 | 1.00 | |
| Feldman | HOU | TEX | 180.1 | 3.74 | 4.33 | 1.30 | 47.1% | 14.0% | 6.5% | 0.80 | 1.53 |
| Greinke | LAD | MIL | 202.1 | 2.71 | 2.87 | 1.15 | 50.0% | 25.2% | 5.2% | 0.85 | 1.70 |
| Garza | MIL | LAD | 163.1 | 3.64 | 4.02 | 1.18 | 35.0% | 18.5% | 7.4% | 0.66 | 1.20 |
| Chavez | OAK | MIN | 146 | 3.45 | 3.64 | 1.31 | 52.6% | 21.9% | 7.9% | 1.05 | 1.18 |
| May | MIN | OAK | 45.2 | 7.88 | 4.20 | 1.77 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 1.38 | 0.86 | |
| Salazar | CLE | KCR | 110 | 4.25 | 3.33 | 1.38 | 12.5% | 25.3% | 7.4% | 1.06 | 0.82 |
| Vargas | KCR | CLE | 187 | 3.71 | 4.14 | 1.27 | 68.4% | 16.2% | 5.2% | 0.91 | 0.99 |
| Greene | DET | CWS | 78.2 | 3.78 | 3.41 | 1.40 | 100.0% | 23.5% | 8.4% | 0.92 | 1.78 |
| Samardzija | CWS | DET | 219.2 | 2.99 | 3.06 | 1.07 | 60.0% | 23.0% | 4.9% | 0.82 | 1.64 |
| Hendricks | CHC | STL | 80.1 | 2.46 | 4.06 | 1.08 | 14.6% | 4.7% | 0.45 | 1.46 | |
| Lyons | STL | CHC | 36.2 | 4.42 | 3.32 | 1.20 | 50.0% | 23.2% | 7.1% | 0.98 | 1.07 |
| Collmenter | ARI | COL | 179.1 | 3.46 | 4.18 | 1.13 | 29.4% | 16.0% | 5.4% | 0.90 | 0.97 |
| Matzek | COL | ARI | 117.2 | 4.05 | 4.08 | 1.39 | 25.0% | 18.1% | 8.8% | 0.69 | 1.64 |
| Paxton | SEA | LAA | 74 | 3.04 | 3.80 | 1.20 | 50.0% | 19.5% | 9.6% | 0.36 | 2.43 |
| Richards | LAA | SEA | 168.2 | 2.61 | 3.20 | 1.04 | 65.0% | 24.2% | 7.5% | 0.27 | 1.82 |
| Cashner | SDP | SFG | 123.1 | 2.55 | 3.70 | 1.13 | 75.0% | 18.4% | 5.7% | 0.51 | 1.54 |
| Vogelsong | SFG | SDP | 184.2 | 4.00 | 3.98 | 1.28 | 52.6% | 19.4% | 7.4% | 0.88 | 1.03 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Zack Greinke LAD (at MIL) – Five games, five quality starts. Greinke tore through the NL West with a 4-0 record, 1.93 ERA, and 27 strikeouts in 32.7 innings in the month of April, and now he takes aim for his former stomping grounds in Milwaukee.
Stephen Strasburg WAS (vs. MIA) – Stras is risky as an All-in guy, in that he seams to be on the verge of implosion at least once in every start. The peripheral numbers are right in line with the last couple of seasons, resulting in a 2.55 FIP though his 4.60 ERA is nearly twice that. The strikeout potential is undeniable, but Strasburg’s struggles to contain Giancarlo Stanton (.400/.486/.900 in 35 head-to-head meetings) could resurface to ruin the right-hander’s day.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Andrew Cashner SD (at SF) – Cashner’s K rate has taken off this season, shooting up from the 18-percent of the past two seasons to 26.8 percent in 2015, including 36 strikeouts against 8 walks in 31 innings. His first start of the season was a bit of an adventure, but since then Cashner has reeled off four consecutive starts of two earned runs or less. He is facing a Giants squad that has scored the second-fewest runs per game in baseball this season, checking in at 3.12 R/G, and Cash is in a good position to further cement 2015 as a breakthrough campaign.
Garrett Richards LAA (vs. SEA) – Richards was not exactly the picture of stability before the gruesome knee injury that prematurely ended his 2014 season, and given the connection between stability and walks, it comes as no surprise that the right-hander has had a bit of trouble with the free pass thus far. His velocity is down more than a tick from last season, which was a peak for Richards, but his value has been driven by what was accomplished last season as he is not yet at that level of functionality.
Jeff Samardzija CHW (vs. DET) – Samardzija watched as the Orioles put up six runs in the first inning in front of empty stands during his last turn, but he stayed in the ballgame to get through the fifth inning. The imposing lineup of the Tigers presents yet another challenge.
Danny Salazar CLE (at KC) – A pitcher who does nothing but generate strikeouts versus a lineup that specializes at putting the ball in play? Unstoppable force, meet immovable object.
Michael Pineda NYY (at TOR) – Pineda restricted the Jays to two runs and seven baserunners in his first start of the season, and he has the upside of double-digit strikeouts if all goes well. That said, the Jays lead all of baseball in runs per game and will pose a considerable challenge for Pineda.
Shelby Miller ATL (vs. PHI) – The Phillies are the only club in baseball that has averaged fewer than three runs per game, and their woeful lineup helps to cover for a pitcher who might not have his best stuff. Miller has been quietly effective this season, with five or more innings and two or fewer earned runs in each of five turns this year, and today is lining up to be number six in a row.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latos | 0.271 | 2.57 | 0.306 | 3.88 | 0.239 | 0.669 | 0.269 | 3.65 | 0.235 | 95.81 | 17.6% |
| Strasburg | 0.287 | 2.75 | 0.302 | 3.45 | 0.261 | 0.676 | 0.315 | 2.94 | 0.241 | 96.91 | 27.9% |
| Lorenzen | 0.234 | 0.642 | |||||||||
| Locke | 0.238 | 2.93 | 0.342 | 4.20 | 0.224 | 0.668 | 0.278 | 4.37 | 0.252 | 93.43 | 16.2% |
| Pineda | 0.233 | 1.33 | 0.230 | 2.52 | 0.235 | 0.718 | 0.233 | 2.71 | 0.198 | 87.69 | 20.3% |
| Estrada | 0.316 | 4.09 | 0.342 | 4.62 | 0.228 | 0.694 | 0.257 | 4.88 | 0.237 | 64.97 | 20.4% |
| Billingsley | 0.255 | 0.707 | |||||||||
| Miller | 0.314 | 4.19 | 0.307 | 3.38 | 0.207 | 0.567 | 0.256 | 4.54 | 0.232 | 89.31 | 16.6% |
| Norris | 0.333 | 3.81 | 0.296 | 3.47 | 0.235 | 0.653 | 0.279 | 4.22 | 0.24 | 98.07 | 20.2% |
| Colon | 0.299 | 4.10 | 0.331 | 4.08 | 0.281 | 0.835 | 0.307 | 3.57 | 0.269 | 97.13 | 17.9% |
| Smyly | 0.216 | 2.54 | 0.334 | 3.53 | 0.200 | 0.701 | 0.278 | 3.77 | 0.237 | 92.57 | 21.5% |
| Porcello | 0.320 | 3.12 | 0.302 | 3.83 | 0.235 | 0.684 | 0.298 | 3.67 | 0.265 | 95.47 | 15.4% |
| Rodriguez | 0.463 | 6.75 | 0.223 | 0.673 | 0.310 | 7.41 | 0.316 | 0.00 | 16.0% | ||
| Feldman | 0.314 | 2.78 | 0.325 | 4.86 | 0.193 | 0.559 | 0.291 | 4.11 | 0.263 | 102.21 | 14.0% |
| Greinke | 0.277 | 2.06 | 0.304 | 3.30 | 0.232 | 0.650 | 0.311 | 2.97 | 0.245 | 100.31 | 25.2% |
| Garza | 0.285 | 3.27 | 0.289 | 3.93 | 0.275 | 0.876 | 0.268 | 3.54 | 0.228 | 94.00 | 18.5% |
| Chavez | 0.299 | 2.62 | 0.321 | 4.52 | 0.231 | 0.623 | 0.302 | 3.89 | 0.25 | 75.00 | 21.9% |
| May | 0.393 | 5.57 | 0.394 | 9.85 | 0.279 | 0.767 | 0.377 | 4.77 | 0.312 | 0.00 | 20.7% |
| Salazar | 0.309 | 3.14 | 0.342 | 4.97 | 0.311 | 0.817 | 0.343 | 3.52 | 0.268 | 93.45 | 25.3% |
| Vargas | 0.296 | 2.51 | 0.321 | 4.10 | 0.226 | 0.638 | 0.299 | 3.84 | 0.265 | 100.10 | 16.2% |
| Greene | 0.345 | 3.63 | 0.297 | 3.92 | 0.256 | 0.679 | 0.330 | 3.73 | 0.261 | 90.20 | 23.5% |
| Samardzija | 0.292 | 2.58 | 0.279 | 3.34 | 0.291 | 0.803 | 0.283 | 3.20 | 0.231 | 101.18 | 23.0% |
| Hendricks | 0.261 | 2.41 | 0.282 | 2.51 | 0.279 | 0.762 | 0.271 | 3.32 | 0.238 | 88.92 | 14.6% |
| Lyons | 0.345 | 5.33 | 0.287 | 0.766 | 0.284 | 3.65 | 0.232 | 48.64 | 23.2% | ||
| Collmenter | 0.327 | 3.22 | 0.268 | 3.69 | 0.284 | 0.772 | 0.267 | 3.87 | 0.241 | 82.39 | 16.0% |
| Matzek | 0.199 | 2.27 | 0.372 | 4.71 | 0.256 | 0.695 | 0.312 | 3.78 | 0.263 | 88.20 | 18.1% |
| Paxton | 0.251 | 1.46 | 0.281 | 3.36 | 0.252 | 0.754 | 0.270 | 3.28 | 0.22 | 90.92 | 19.5% |
| Richards | 0.237 | 2.78 | 0.252 | 2.41 | 0.234 | 0.660 | 0.264 | 2.60 | 0.2 | 101.04 | 24.2% |
| Cashner | 0.294 | 3.45 | 0.256 | 1.71 | 0.245 | 0.673 | 0.274 | 3.09 | 0.231 | 94.58 | 18.4% |
| Vogelsong | 0.346 | 3.90 | 0.301 | 4.08 | 0.244 | 0.694 | 0.294 | 3.85 | 0.25 | 95.56 | 19.4% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Drew Smyly TB (at BOS) – Smyly will benefit from the absence of Hanley Ramirez from the Red Sox lineup, and the southpaw should be able to reach about 95 pitches as the Rays continue build up his pitch count following his late start to the season.
Jesse Chavez OAK (at MIN) – Chavez was masterful in his return to the Oakland rotation, shutting down the heavy-hitting Angels to a single run over six innings, though the Halos got some vengeance the second time around. Chavez faces a Twins lineup that has been revitalized recently, but even at peak the Minnesota offense pales in comparison to that of the Angels, and Chavez could provide big value in DFS today.
Mat Latos MIA (at WAS) – Latos is still shaking off his first start of the year, but he has been solid in the four starts since that implosion. The innings are few and the strikeouts are fewer, so he’s not likely to be a difference-maker on the positive side, but the downside may not be as steep as perceived.
Bartolo Colon NYM (vs. BAL) – Colon continues to defy age and gravity, with the 42-year old throwing 85-percent fastballs and yet continuing to succeed. He will test the magic against a powerful Baltimore club this evening, though any fears that he might have about the Oriole lineup are easily put to rest by the reality that Colon won’t have to pick up a bat today.
James Paxton SEA (at LAA) – He pitched well against the Halos in his first start of the season, allowing one run and five baserunners in six innings but he has given up four or more runs in three of his five starts this season and twice has failed to get five full innings under his belt before hitting the showers. The Angels have seen plenty of Paxton’s unique delivery, having faced him five times in the past two seasons.
Rick Porcello BOS (vs. TB) – He gives up a lot of homers for a groundball pitcher, and the issue has been a bit exaggerated in Fenway thus far, with four homers given up in three starts. His best start of the year was his effort against the Blue Jays last turn, with one run and four baserunners across seven frames, but his ERA of 5.34 is indicative of Porcello’s struggles for the balance of the season. He matches up well with a Rays club that has the lowest team slugging percentage in the AL.
Jeff Locke PIT (vs. CIN) – Locke has faced two opponents in four starts, pitching both home and away versus the Brewers and the Cubs. He shut down Milwaukee but got smoked by the Cubs, and though southpaws enjoy a natural advantage against the Reds by minimizing Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, Locke is a dicey play given the potential for a full-scale blow-up.
Shane Greene DET (at CHW)
Kyle Hendricks CHC (at STL)
Matt Garza MIL (vs. LAD)
Marco Estrada TOR (vs. NYY)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Michael Lorenzen CIN (vs. PIT) – His second career start will hopefully be better than the first, but expectations are low.
Chad Billingsley PHI (at ATL) – We really have no idea what to expect from Bills in his first start since 2013, but eyes will be trained on his start just in case
Jason Vargas KC (vs. CLE)
Wandy Rodriguez TEX (at HOU)
Scott Feldman HOU (vs. TEX)
Ryan Vogelsong SF (vs. SD)
Trevor May MIN (vs. OAK)
Bud Norris BAL (at NYM)
Tyler Lyons STL (vs. CHC)
Tyler Matzek COL (vs. ARI)
Josh Collmenter ARI (at COL) – A flyball pitcher in Coors? I smell a stack, though I also smell rain. Stay tuned.
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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