Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wed, Sep 17
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frias | LAD | COL | 25.1 | 3.91 | 3.24 | 0.95 | 17.8% | 4.0% | 1.07 | 1.56 | |
| De La Rosa | COL | LAD | 172.1 | 4.28 | 4.05 | 1.24 | 40.0% | 17.9% | 8.5% | 1.10 | 1.64 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | ARI | 204 | 2.91 | 2.94 | 1.09 | 47.6% | 25.4% | 5.0% | 0.79 | 1.30 |
| Delgado | ARI | SFG | 69 | 5.48 | 3.59 | 1.45 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 0.78 | 0.84 | |
| Happ | TOR | BAL | 138.2 | 4.28 | 3.98 | 1.36 | 30.8% | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.17 | 0.97 |
| Norris | BAL | TOR | 154 | 3.74 | 3.88 | 1.22 | 26.7% | 19.6% | 7.2% | 1.05 | 1.15 |
| Buchholz | BOS | PIT | 152.2 | 5.19 | 4.07 | 1.40 | 33.3% | 17.9% | 7.7% | 0.88 | 1.36 |
| Liriano | PIT | BOS | 145.1 | 3.53 | 3.41 | 1.28 | 12.5% | 26.0% | 10.8% | 0.81 | 2.05 |
| Gonzalez | WAS | ATL | 144.2 | 3.79 | 3.56 | 1.25 | 46.7% | 24.1% | 9.0% | 0.62 | 1.26 |
| Wood | ATL | WAS | 159 | 2.83 | 3.17 | 1.14 | 58.3% | 24.3% | 6.5% | 0.79 | 1.37 |
| McCarthy | NYY | TBR | 187.2 | 3.98 | 3.02 | 1.27 | 35.0% | 20.8% | 4.1% | 1.01 | 2.16 |
| Cobb | TBR | NYY | 147.1 | 2.75 | 3.18 | 1.12 | 42.9% | 22.9% | 7.0% | 0.55 | 2.00 |
| Alvarez | MIA | NYM | 166.1 | 2.81 | 3.58 | 1.23 | 50.0% | 14.8% | 4.4% | 0.70 | 2.38 |
| Gee | NYM | MIA | 125.2 | 3.80 | 4.30 | 1.22 | 50.0% | 16.9% | 7.9% | 1.29 | 1.15 |
| Corcino | CIN | CHC | |||||||||
| Hendricks | CHC | CIN | 68 | 2.38 | 4.13 | 1.09 | 14.3% | 5.2% | 0.40 | 1.51 | |
| Price | DET | MIN | 226.2 | 3.26 | 2.67 | 1.07 | 52.4% | 27.2% | 3.6% | 0.99 | 1.08 |
| Gibson | MIN | DET | 159 | 4.58 | 4.26 | 1.33 | 52.6% | 13.3% | 7.6% | 0.62 | 2.09 |
| Carrasco | CLE | HOU | 110 | 2.86 | 2.68 | 1.04 | 24.8% | 5.5% | 0.57 | 1.98 | |
| Oberholtzer | HOU | CLE | 131.2 | 4.51 | 4.23 | 1.37 | 41.7% | 15.5% | 4.6% | 0.75 | 0.86 |
| Sale | CWS | KCR | 163 | 1.99 | 2.54 | 0.92 | 64.3% | 30.3% | 5.4% | 0.61 | 1.01 |
| Ventura | KCR | CWS | 165 | 3.27 | 3.93 | 1.30 | 44.4% | 19.8% | 8.8% | 0.71 | 1.52 |
| Fiers | MIL | STL | 53.2 | 1.84 | 2.78 | 0.86 | 29.1% | 6.4% | 0.67 | 0.76 | |
| Wainwright | STL | MIL | 211 | 2.56 | 3.59 | 1.05 | 84.2% | 19.6% | 5.6% | 0.43 | 1.50 |
| Holland | TEX | OAK | 21 | 0.86 | 3.08 | 0.95 | 21.5% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.85 | |
| Samardzija | OAK | TEX | 197.2 | 3.10 | 3.18 | 1.10 | 60.0% | 22.5% | 5.4% | 0.82 | 1.64 |
| Paxton | SEA | LAA | 59 | 1.83 | 3.61 | 1.08 | 50.0% | 19.7% | 8.2% | 0.46 | 2.35 |
| Wilson | LAA | SEA | 162 | 4.61 | 4.14 | 1.46 | 42.1% | 20.2% | 10.7% | 0.94 | 1.57 |
| Hamels | PHI | SDP | 182.2 | 2.51 | 3.35 | 1.18 | 58.8% | 23.9% | 7.5% | 0.64 | 1.44 |
| Stults | SDP | PHI | 158.1 | 4.49 | 4.43 | 1.40 | 26.3% | 14.3% | 6.4% | 1.48 | 1.18 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
PLATINUM BUYS:
These are aces who don’t really need much explanation at all. They’re expensive, but awesome. If an ace-level arm is struggling a bit or has a tough matchup, he might fall into the gold or silver tiers, but otherwise you’re going to find the Kershaws, Hernandez, and Sales of the world in here.
Cole Hamels PHI (at SD)
Chris Sale CWS (at KC)
David Price DET (at MIN)
Alex Cobb TB (v. NYY)
Jeff Samardzija OAK (v. TEX)
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Mike Fiers MIL (at STL) – I discussed his last time out that he was pitching like a platinum-level arm, but the sample was too small really trust him in that tier and while he threw up another big score his last time out (albeit in just five innings), we just don’t know how he will fare after the Giancarlo Stanton incident. Will he be afraid to work inside with his fastball to righties now? That’s one of his keys to success as he doesn’t have overpowering stuff (his FB sits 88-91 from the right side). Righties have a meager .352 OPS against his fastball this year and it drops to .333 against fastballs (in 40 PA) on the inner third, baseball’s best among righty starters meeting that 40 PA threshold (just ahead of teammates Jered Weaver and Matt Shoemaker, who are at .376 and .396 in 57 and 46 PA, respectively).
Alex Wood ATL (v. WAS) – And the beat goes on… I’m running out of ways to describe Wood’s excellence. I can only apologize for being wrong so many times. I didn’t believe Wood would be a force this year. I worried about his wonky mechanics and they would foster poor control which would eventually cost him his spot. He lost his spot for a spell, but through no real fault of his own. The Marlins smashed two starts before he was eventually lifted, but he still exited the rotation with a 3.00 ERA in 45 IP. He returned to the rotation on June 25th and he’s posted a 2.46 ERA in 15 starts with 93 Ks in 98.7 IP and just 27 walks (2.5 BB9). Wood hasn’t had any problems with Washington this year. He has a 1.86 ERA against them in three starts with 24 Ks and just six walks in 19.3 IP.
Adam Wainwright STL (v. MIL) – After failing to top five strikeouts in six straight starts, Waino had a vintage outing against the Rockies his last time out with an 8 IP/1 ER gem that included 8 Ks on just 96 pitches. The start before that he dropped a one-run complete game win on the Brewers in Milwaukee, although with just three strikeouts. He spent four years between 8.2 and 8.3 with his K9 rate and this year he’s down to 7.0 and while I don’t rule out his ability to build it back up or have to occasional big strikeout game, I’ve adjusted my expectations at this point. Of course, let’s be careful not to overstate this decline because even with the lowered strikeout rates, he’s still putting up the 10th best average score among full-time SPs at DraftKings with 21.1 points per game (guys like Jose Fernandez, Nate Karns, and Derek Holland are technically in the top 10, but they have a combined 12 starts).
Derek Holland TEX (at OAK) – Speaking of Holland, he’s only got three starts but he has been amazing! The beauty of Holland’s return is that he wasn’t coming back from an arm injury so the chances of him ramping up quickly compared to a Tommy John recovery player, for example, was much higher and we’ve seen it play out. In fact, this is basically the 95th percentile outcome. He is just cutting through the opposition with ease, allowing two earned runs and zero walks in his 21 innings of work with 17 Ks and 20 hits allowed.
Brandon McCarthy NYY (at TB) – McCarthy’s only real lull with the Yanks came in back-to-back starts at Detroit and Toronto. In other words, he gets a bit of a pass heading into those venues against those remarkably potent offenses. He has rebounded with a pair of gems including seven shutout innings in Baltimore on the frontend of a doubleheader back on September 12th. The increased use of his cutter is getting a lot of credit for his surge with NYY, but his curveball deserves more attention. It allowed a .761 OPS in 98 PA with Arizona, but it is holding batters a paltry .403 in 65 PA since heading to the Bronx.
Carlos Carrasco CLE (at HOU) – Since returning to the rotation, Carrasco has been elite. He has a disgusting 1.40 ERA in 45 IP with 47 Ks and just six walks (7.8 K:BB). It’s easily the best stretch of his career and that 1.40 ERA ranks him fifth in all of baseball during that time period (dating back to August 10th). By the way, Alex Cobb leads the way with a 1.00 ERA which is part of why he’s now in the platinum tier. It gets even crazier with Carrasco when you look into his work. He’s allowed 32 hits during this run, but 17 have come in two starts against Detroit and they are also the only team to beat him (4-1). Without the Detroit starts, he’s allowed 15 hits in 33.3 IP. I realize that’s a tiny sample, but it’s still impressive. Good luck, Houston. They’ve already fallen victim to him during his surge (6 IP/1 ER/8 Ks).
Francisco Liriano PIT (v. BOS) – What’s your perception of Liriano in 2014? If you had him on your team at any point in the first half, you’re probably still left with a feeling of disappointment and might attach that to Liriano himself, but he’s been excellent since the break with a 2.39 ERA in 10 starts (even more impressive when you see that he has a 4 IP/7 ER in there). He’s actually been at his best since that 7 ER outing with three scoreless outings in four starts, yielding an incredible 0.67 ERA in 27 IP with 34 Ks against 10 walks (3.3 BB9 which is tolerable for him). He’s also in the midst of a 16-inning scoreless streak.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Gio Gonzalez WAS (at ATL) – Scratched for rest now that WAS has clinched. Nothing to see here!
Yordano Ventura KC (v. CWS) – I think Ventura might be looked at as something of a disappointment with only 140 Ks in his 165 IP, but it’s hard to argue with a 3.27 ERA out of a rookie. The threat with the White Sox is power, but Ventura has been great at snuffing that out in the second half with a brilliant 0.47 HR9 rate. Plus the aforementioned strikeouts are on the rise. He has an 8.2 K9 in his last nine starts with only two of those seeing him fan fewer than five batters.
Clay Buchholz BOS (at PIT) – Admittedly I’ve never been much of a fan of Buchholz and so I wasn’t really surprised to see him struggle through most of this year. But credit where it is due, he has been much sharper of late with a 2.10 ERA in his last four starts which includes two outings against a strong Toronto offense. Keeping the ball in the yard has been a big key. He hasn’t allowed a homer in any of the four outings after a 1.1 HR9 rate in his first 21 starts of the season (5.94 ERA).
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Henderson Alvarez MIA (at NYM) – Arguably the best value play of the season, Alvarez has had an ERA below 3.00 since late-May yet he’s never seen his price rise to a level commensurate with that kind of performance. Part of it could be the obscurity earned by being a Miami Marlin, but a big part of it is the lack of dominance attached to performance. His 5.5 K9 is the fourth-lowest among the 77 starters with at least 160 IP. He’s fanned more than five just three times all season. And yet, he’s tied for the MLB lead with three shutouts (tied w/Rick Porcello, who is one spot above Alvarez in the K9 charts with a 5.6 rate). You don’t need a lot of strikeouts to put up a big score with a shutout. It helps, but it’s not essential. One of those shutouts came against the Mets back on May 6th (a day I recommended him in this very space!).
Brett Oberholtzer HOU (v. CLE) – Obie was pitching well enough to move into the silver tier for a bit, but now he’s back to a pure matchup play. He’s been really shaky of late, but I like him against this Cleveland team that has struggled with lefties all year. He had a decent outing against them in Cleveland on August 24th, allowing three earned on 10 hits in 6.7 IP. He did have six strikeouts, though, so that helped since he’s not really a strikeout guy. If you’re finding money to be tight after rostering a Sale or Hamels, you can save it here.
Dillon Gee NYM (v. MIA) – There’s nothing particularly special going on with Gee, but he’s a relatively safe option, especially if you need to save a few bucks. While he rarely has the HUGE night, he will also rarely be the reason you lose. It’s bland, but we’re looking for value and like Oberholtzer, Gee can lessen the burden of rostering a superstar as your SP1.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frias | 0.246 | 4.09 | 0.242 | 3.77 | 0.274 | 0.756 | 0.224 | 3.71 | 0.206 | 31.18 | 17.8% |
| De La Rosa | 0.228 | 2.34 | 0.345 | 4.92 | 0.240 | 0.694 | 0.263 | 4.43 | 0.234 | 95.97 | 17.9% |
| Bumgarner | 0.242 | 1.90 | 0.296 | 3.22 | 0.246 | 0.684 | 0.298 | 2.90 | 0.234 | 101.77 | 25.4% |
| Delgado | 0.306 | 4.50 | 0.341 | 6.43 | 0.256 | 0.704 | 0.316 | 3.68 | 0.244 | 31.88 | 24.4% |
| Happ | 0.368 | 5.08 | 0.328 | 4.08 | 0.250 | 0.728 | 0.301 | 4.17 | 0.259 | 89.67 | 20.0% |
| Norris | 0.325 | 3.76 | 0.306 | 3.72 | 0.266 | 0.760 | 0.282 | 4.17 | 0.244 | 97.81 | 19.6% |
| Buchholz | 0.346 | 4.66 | 0.311 | 5.85 | 0.260 | 0.745 | 0.314 | 4.00 | 0.269 | 98.96 | 17.9% |
| Liriano | 0.328 | 4.34 | 0.285 | 3.33 | 0.245 | 0.702 | 0.283 | 3.53 | 0.217 | 93.00 | 26.0% |
| Gonzalez | 0.294 | 4.19 | 0.302 | 3.67 | 0.257 | 0.718 | 0.299 | 3.20 | 0.233 | 96.96 | 24.1% |
| Wood | 0.292 | 1.96 | 0.285 | 3.14 | 0.268 | 0.727 | 0.293 | 3.19 | 0.233 | 75.18 | 24.3% |
| McCarthy | 0.331 | 3.97 | 0.313 | 4.00 | 0.247 | 0.685 | 0.329 | 3.40 | 0.276 | 95.37 | 20.8% |
| Cobb | 0.247 | 2.65 | 0.292 | 2.84 | 0.241 | 0.681 | 0.281 | 3.06 | 0.223 | 96.58 | 22.9% |
| Alvarez | 0.293 | 2.31 | 0.327 | 3.47 | 0.238 | 0.676 | 0.301 | 3.59 | 0.268 | 86.26 | 14.8% |
| Gee | 0.313 | 4.55 | 0.319 | 2.98 | 0.248 | 0.699 | 0.254 | 4.66 | 0.235 | 97.75 | 16.9% |
| Corcino | 0.233 | 0.670 | |||||||||
| Hendricks | 0.260 | 2.59 | 0.273 | 2.21 | 0.241 | 0.665 | 0.268 | 3.30 | 0.235 | 90.09 | 14.3% |
| Price | 0.301 | 3.47 | 0.281 | 3.18 | 0.252 | 0.691 | 0.305 | 2.85 | 0.238 | 109.42 | 27.2% |
| Gibson | 0.318 | 4.41 | 0.297 | 4.79 | 0.273 | 0.745 | 0.286 | 3.89 | 0.257 | 89.86 | 13.3% |
| Carrasco | 0.256 | 2.77 | 0.262 | 2.95 | 0.230 | 0.671 | 0.280 | 2.70 | 0.218 | 44.73 | 24.8% |
| Oberholtzer | 0.335 | 4.15 | 0.325 | 4.62 | 0.252 | 0.673 | 0.325 | 3.53 | 0.286 | 93.91 | 15.5% |
| Sale | 0.167 | 0.00 | 0.265 | 2.50 | 0.267 | 0.708 | 0.271 | 2.45 | 0.197 | 106.50 | 30.3% |
| Ventura | 0.294 | 2.88 | 0.314 | 3.84 | 0.252 | 0.712 | 0.287 | 3.65 | 0.239 | 96.25 | 19.8% |
| Fiers | 0.225 | 1.48 | 0.223 | 2.15 | 0.255 | 0.688 | 0.228 | 2.62 | 0.174 | 75.82 | 29.1% |
| Wainwright | 0.281 | 2.45 | 0.249 | 2.65 | 0.257 | 0.719 | 0.268 | 2.95 | 0.222 | 101.67 | 19.6% |
| Holland | 0.239 | 0.238 | 0.687 | 0.323 | 1.50 | 0.253 | 103.67 | 21.5% | |||
| Samardzija | 0.296 | 2.67 | 0.282 | 3.48 | 0.249 | 0.665 | 0.284 | 3.29 | 0.233 | 100.73 | 22.5% |
| Paxton | 0.259 | 0.84 | 0.261 | 2.05 | 0.279 | 0.784 | 0.255 | 3.19 | 0.21 | 91.50 | 19.7% |
| Wilson | 0.271 | 4.29 | 0.350 | 4.73 | 0.247 | 0.651 | 0.315 | 4.30 | 0.262 | 103.32 | 20.2% |
| Hamels | 0.299 | 2.21 | 0.289 | 2.59 | 0.215 | 0.604 | 0.297 | 3.13 | 0.233 | 104.67 | 23.9% |
| Stults | 0.346 | 5.44 | 0.350 | 4.15 | 0.242 | 0.687 | 0.293 | 4.91 | 0.277 | 88.62 | 14.3% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window