Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wed, Sep 24
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norris | BAL | NYY | 159.1 | 3.62 | 3.94 | 1.22 | 26.70% | 19.60% | 7.70% | 1.02 | 1.16 |
| Greene | NYY | BAL | 75 | 3.24 | 3.35 | 1.33 | 100.00% | 23.50% | 8.00% | 0.96 | 1.8 |
| Sale | CWS | DET | 168 | 2.2 | 2.57 | 0.96 | 64.30% | 30.00% | 5.50% | 0.7 | 0.99 |
| Verlander | DET | CWS | 198 | 4.68 | 4.2 | 1.42 | 35.00% | 17.80% | 7.50% | 0.82 | 0.99 |
| Nuno | ARI | MIN | 156.2 | 4.6 | 3.98 | 1.25 | 18.80% | 18.70% | 6.40% | 1.44 | 0.88 |
| Hughes | MIN | ARI | 201.2 | 3.61 | 3.14 | 1.15 | 45.00% | 21.90% | 1.90% | 0.71 | 0.93 |
| Santiago | LAA | OAK | 120 | 3.98 | 4.37 | 1.38 | 16.70% | 20.00% | 9.70% | 1.13 | 0.6 |
| Lester | OAK | LAA | 212.2 | 2.41 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 65.00% | 24.90% | 5.60% | 0.68 | 1.18 |
| Vargas | KCR | CLE | 183 | 3.59 | 4.08 | 1.26 | 68.40% | 16.50% | 4.90% | 0.89 | 0.99 |
| Bauer | CLE | KCR | 148.2 | 4.06 | 3.88 | 1.35 | 38.50% | 22.10% | 8.90% | 0.97 | 0.86 |
| Gee | NYM | WAS | 132.1 | 3.88 | 4.3 | 1.22 | 50.00% | 16.80% | 7.90% | 1.22 | 1.17 |
| Gonzalez | WAS | NYM | 151.2 | 3.74 | 3.54 | 1.23 | 46.70% | 23.80% | 8.60% | 0.59 | 1.22 |
| Walker | SEA | TOR | 30 | 3 | 4.14 | 1.47 | 21.20% | 12.90% | 0.6 | 2.05 | |
| Buehrle | TOR | SEA | 194 | 3.53 | 4.42 | 1.39 | 60.00% | 13.10% | 5.40% | 0.7 | 1.3 |
| Odorizzi | TBR | BOS | 165 | 3.98 | 3.62 | 1.24 | 36.80% | 24.40% | 8.00% | 1.04 | 0.61 |
| Ranaudo | BOS | TBR | 32.1 | 5.29 | 5.99 | 1.48 | 9.20% | 10.60% | 2.78 | 0.67 | |
| Lohse | MIL | CIN | 189.1 | 3.71 | 4.07 | 1.19 | 50.00% | 17.10% | 5.70% | 1.05 | 1.01 |
| Corcino | CIN | MIL | 14.1 | 4.4 | 4.13 | 1.05 | 21.70% | 10.00% | 1.26 | 0.58 | |
| Kendrick | PHI | MIA | 192 | 4.73 | 4.45 | 1.38 | 30.00% | 14.20% | 6.70% | 1.17 | 1.27 |
| Hand | MIA | PHI | 104 | 4.59 | 4.38 | 1.37 | 33.30% | 14.60% | 8.10% | 0.87 | 1.49 |
| Locke | PIT | ATL | 127.1 | 3.6 | 3.98 | 1.21 | 66.70% | 16.40% | 6.70% | 1.06 | 1.69 |
| Teheran | ATL | PIT | 216 | 2.88 | 3.68 | 1.06 | 70.00% | 20.90% | 5.60% | 0.88 | 0.79 |
| Lackey | STL | CHC | 191.1 | 3.86 | 3.63 | 1.28 | 57.90% | 19.40% | 5.40% | 1.13 | 1.35 |
| Arrieta | CHC | STL | 149.2 | 2.65 | 2.92 | 1.02 | 50.00% | 26.70% | 6.80% | 0.3 | 1.66 |
| Feldman | HOU | TEX | 174.1 | 3.82 | 4.34 | 1.3 | 47.10% | 13.70% | 6.20% | 0.83 | 1.5 |
| Bonilla | TEX | HOU | |||||||||
| Flande | COL | SDP | 55 | 4.91 | 3.86 | 1.2 | 13.50% | 6.70% | 0.65 | 2.66 | |
| Wieland | SDP | COL | |||||||||
| Hudson | SFG | LAD | 184 | 3.52 | 3.66 | 1.23 | 68.40% | 15.10% | 4.30% | 0.68 | 2.07 |
| Kershaw | LAD | SFG | 190.1 | 1.8 | 2.13 | 0.86 | 66.70% | 31.80% | 4.30% | 0.43 | 1.73 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
PLATINUM BUYS:
These are aces who don’t really need much explanation at all. They’re expensive, but awesome. If an ace-level arm is struggling a bit or has a tough matchup, he might fall into the gold or silver tiers, but otherwise you’re going to find the Kershaws, Hernandez, and Sales of the world in here.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (v. SF)
Jake Arrieta CHC (v. STL)
Julio Teheran ATL (v. PIT)
It’s a bit of a light day everywhere else as I just don’t feel great about a lot guys:
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Gio Gonzalez WAS (v. NYM) – Gonzalez is closing with a bang. He sputtered a bit out of the All-Star break, though his strikeouts were still there, and now he’s putting results with those strikeouts. He’s got a 3.09 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 4.0 K:BB ratio in his last seven starts which includes a 6.7 IP/3 ER effort in Citi Field against the Mets (with seven strikeouts). The strikeouts (8.9 K9 for the year) keep his floor high because he usually fans at least a handful even if he doesn’t excel results-wise.
John Lackey STL (at CHC) – If you take out that disastrous 9 ER effort in Baltimore, Lackey has a 3.31 ERA in eight starts with the Cards. He also has a 4.1 K:BB ratio in those starts. The strikeouts have actually dropped with his move to the AL, coming from 7.6 K9 to 6.7, but this is the team to turn that around. The Cubs are fanning at a hilarious 26.4% clip against righties in the second-half, easily baseball’s worst. They are definitely hitting better, slotting 11th in OPS, but those strikeouts can turn them cold in a second and offer up some big scores for opposing pitchers.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Kyle Lohse MIL (at CIN) – Lohse was having a brilliant season (at least with regards to expectations), but then it all fell apart in August with a 7.30 ERA in five starts. Although it was really weird because he was still mixing in some good starts, but the bad ones were HORRIFIC! He went 7, 1, 4, 1, and 7 ER in the five August outings. He opened September with a 4 IP/5 ER dud against STL, but he has put together a couple of strong outings since, allowing just 3 ER in 14 IP including a 6.7 IP/2 ER effort against the Reds with six strikeouts.
Trevor Bauer CLE (v. KC) – On the one hand, the Royals simply don’t strike out so Bauer’s biggest asset is neutralized, but on the other hand his homer issue (1.0 HR9) is unlikely to be a major concern as the Royals hit the fewest in baseball. Bauer is still quite far from a complete product, but he has unquestionably made tremendous strides in 2014. He’s still a significant risk every time out, but we are finally seeing the upside with regularity. This isn’t a great matchup for him because of the lack of strikeouts from KC, but we’re short on worthy options today so I could see myself using him as an SP2.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Scott Feldman HOU (at TEX) – Feldman’s on one of his big streaks with a 2.00 ERA in his last six starts and he even has a great 5.0 K:BB ratio despite just 30 Ks in 45 IP. The big issue with Feldman is that when it’s bad, it’s REALLY bad. Just when you think you can trust him, he drops a 5.3 IP/7 ER bomb on your face, something he’s done twice this year – both against Boston oddly enough. He hasn’t had any such trouble with his former team, though. He has a 2.30 ERA in four starts against the Rangers this year with a 1.10 WHIP and 2.4 K:BB ratio. If you’re hoping for strikeouts, you’re barking up the wrong tree, but he’s usually good for six strong innings. He’s gone at least six in 20 of his 28 starts this year.
Daniel Corcino CIN (v. MIL) – I don’t have a great read on Corcino just yet with all of two MLB starts. He was often tabbed as a baby-Cueto in the minors and while that has almost certainly gone away as a potential for his career, he does have some upside. He’s essentially made the jump from AA (26 of his 27 appearances were there this year) and held his own by making it into the sixth inning of both starts and allowing just 2 ER in each. He has a 4.40 ERA because of a 1.3 IP/3 ER relief appearance against the Mets, but the starts against Milwaukee and Chicago were solid. Milwaukee may be ready to pack it in, now that their postseason hopes have been dashed.
Joe Wieland SD (v. COL) – Wieland has missed the overwhelming majority of the season so I doubt we’ll see him go terribly deep unless he’s just being incredibly efficient. But there is a good chance that he puts up five strong innings against the worst road the Padres can face (the Padres themselves are 30th so they obviously can’t face the absolute worst, but COL is 29th). Robbie Erlin kinda let us down with a modest effort yesterday (4 IP/2 ER in 83 pitches) and Wieland could do something similar, but I’d take a gamble as an SP2 if I wanted to stack my lineup with huge bats since he’ll cost virtually nothing.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norris | 0.325 | 3.61 | 0.302 | 3.62 | 0.240 | 0.676 | 0.279 | 4.19 | 0.24 | 98.19 | 19.6% |
| Greene | 0.328 | 2.63 | 0.299 | 3.86 | 0.260 | 0.738 | 0.317 | 3.77 | 0.253 | 91.43 | 23.5% |
| Sale | 0.183 | 0.00 | 0.273 | 2.76 | 0.286 | 0.794 | 0.278 | 2.60 | 0.204 | 106.08 | 30.0% |
| Verlander | 0.307 | 3.53 | 0.381 | 6.46 | 0.252 | 0.708 | 0.319 | 3.82 | 0.273 | 106.45 | 17.8% |
| Nuno | 0.267 | 2.95 | 0.346 | 5.15 | 0.255 | 0.698 | 0.279 | 4.53 | 0.252 | 82.77 | 18.7% |
| Hughes | 0.276 | 2.74 | 0.327 | 4.63 | 0.248 | 0.677 | 0.329 | 2.68 | 0.269 | 95.16 | 21.9% |
| Santiago | 0.269 | 2.48 | 0.333 | 4.53 | 0.236 | 0.682 | 0.291 | 4.36 | 0.249 | 76.82 | 20.0% |
| Lester | 0.311 | 2.03 | 0.274 | 2.52 | 0.275 | 0.770 | 0.296 | 2.85 | 0.231 | 109.48 | 24.9% |
| Vargas | 0.298 | 2.60 | 0.316 | 3.91 | 0.250 | 0.669 | 0.300 | 3.72 | 0.265 | 100.76 | 16.5% |
| Bauer | 0.324 | 4.35 | 0.322 | 3.77 | 0.259 | 0.678 | 0.306 | 3.98 | 0.25 | 100.32 | 22.1% |
| Gee | 0.314 | 4.86 | 0.318 | 2.88 | 0.245 | 0.706 | 0.259 | 4.59 | 0.238 | 97.52 | 16.8% |
| Gonzalez | 0.295 | 4.08 | 0.298 | 3.64 | 0.233 | 0.639 | 0.298 | 3.13 | 0.232 | 96.92 | 23.8% |
| Walker | 0.384 | 3.45 | 0.238 | 2.51 | 0.263 | 0.752 | 0.305 | 4.13 | 0.241 | 75.14 | 21.2% |
| Buehrle | 0.331 | 3.73 | 0.335 | 3.45 | 0.243 | 0.642 | 0.320 | 3.77 | 0.288 | 96.42 | 13.1% |
| Odorizzi | 0.290 | 3.99 | 0.317 | 3.98 | 0.241 | 0.671 | 0.290 | 3.66 | 0.233 | 97.90 | 24.4% |
| Ranaudo | 0.383 | 5.19 | 0.373 | 5.40 | 0.247 | 0.685 | 0.221 | 7.73 | 0.26 | 89.50 | 9.2% |
| Lohse | 0.322 | 4.21 | 0.299 | 3.28 | 0.239 | 0.657 | 0.275 | 4.05 | 0.246 | 96.53 | 17.1% |
| Corcino | 0.256 | 0.715 | 0.184 | 4.59 | 0.17 | 59.25 | 21.7% | ||||
| Kendrick | 0.364 | 5.53 | 0.320 | 4.15 | 0.249 | 0.695 | 0.292 | 4.63 | 0.27 | 97.29 | 14.2% |
| Hand | 0.276 | 3.52 | 0.342 | 5.03 | 0.239 | 0.674 | 0.287 | 4.19 | 0.259 | 54.52 | 14.6% |
| Locke | 0.238 | 3.07 | 0.330 | 3.77 | 0.260 | 0.719 | 0.272 | 4.23 | 0.246 | 93.80 | 16.4% |
| Teheran | 0.300 | 3.36 | 0.258 | 2.37 | 0.262 | 0.750 | 0.265 | 3.45 | 0.225 | 99.22 | 20.9% |
| Lackey | 0.315 | 3.38 | 0.331 | 4.37 | 0.234 | 0.671 | 0.305 | 3.82 | 0.264 | 99.03 | 19.4% |
| Arrieta | 0.254 | 2.27 | 0.241 | 2.95 | 0.255 | 0.686 | 0.278 | 2.30 | 0.205 | 96.63 | 26.7% |
| Feldman | 0.314 | 2.85 | 0.330 | 4.97 | 0.250 | 0.665 | 0.293 | 4.12 | 0.266 | 101.89 | 13.7% |
| Bonilla | 0.232 | 0.673 | |||||||||
| Flande | 0.229 | 5.30 | 0.339 | 4.71 | 0.219 | 0.613 | 0.272 | 3.85 | 0.246 | 54.47 | 13.5% |
| Wieland | 0.278 | 0.768 | |||||||||
| Hudson | 0.330 | 3.61 | 0.288 | 3.43 | 0.271 | 0.744 | 0.301 | 3.49 | 0.266 | 90.43 | 15.1% |
| Kershaw | 0.206 | 0.99 | 0.241 | 1.99 | 0.258 | 0.712 | 0.275 | 1.87 | 0.193 | 100.19 | 31.8% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
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