Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, April 15th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-04-18 13:10:43

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Haren	MIA	ATL	186	4.02	3.74	1.18	30.0%	18.7%	4.6%	1.31	1.06
Stults	ATL	MIA	176	4.30	4.33	1.38	26.3%	14.6%	5.9%	1.33	1.22
Danks	CWS	CLE	193.2	4.74	4.64	1.44	50.0%	15.1%	8.7%	1.16	1.10
Bauer	CLE	CWS	153	4.18	3.95	1.38	38.5%	21.6%	9.1%	0.94	0.85
Gonzalez	WAS	BOS	158.2	3.57	3.43	1.20	46.7%	24.8%	8.6%	0.57	1.22
Miley	BOS	WAS	201.1	4.34	3.67	1.40	33.3%	21.1%	8.7%	1.03	1.82
Santiago	LAA	TEX	127.1	3.75	4.38	1.36	16.7%	19.9%	9.7%	1.06	0.61
Ranaudo	TEX	LAA	39.1	4.81	5.93	1.40		8.8%	9.4%	2.29	0.66
Eovaldi	NYY	BAL	199.2	4.37	3.91	1.33	50.0%	16.6%	5.0%	0.63	1.36
Norris	BAL	NYY	165.1	3.65	3.86	1.22	26.7%	20.2%	7.6%	1.09	1.13
Simon	DET	PIT	196.1	3.44	4.17	1.21	63.2%	15.5%	6.9%	1.01	1.57
Liriano	PIT	DET	162.1	3.38	3.61	1.30	12.5%	25.3%	11.7%	0.72	2.03
Ramirez	TBR	TOR	75.1	5.26	4.51	1.54	27.3%	17.8%	10.1%	1.55	0.87
Buehrle	TOR	TBR	202	3.39	4.32	1.36	60.0%	13.9%	5.4%	0.67	1.29
Williams	PHI	NYM	115	4.77	4.03	1.40		16.5%	7.2%	0.94	1.38
Niese	NYM	PHI	187.2	3.40	3.78	1.27	41.2%	17.6%	5.7%	0.82	1.60
Marquis	CIN	CHC
Wood	CHC	CIN	173.2	5.03	4.41	1.53	30.0%	18.7%	9.7%	1.04	0.81
Pomeranz	OAK	HOU	69	2.35	3.62	1.12	25.0%	23.0%	9.4%	0.91	1.27
McHugh	HOU	OAK	154.2	2.73	3.14	1.02	42.9%	25.4%	6.6%	0.76	1.25
Volquez	KCR	MIN	192.2	3.04	4.20	1.23	50.0%	17.3%	8.8%	0.79	1.53
Gibson	MIN	KCR	179.1	4.47	4.18	1.31	52.6%	14.1%	7.5%	0.60	2.05
Peralta	MIL	STL	198.2	3.53	3.73	1.30	47.4%	18.4%	7.3%	1.04	1.94
Lynn	STL	MIL	203.2	2.74	3.84	1.26	60.0%	20.9%	8.3%	0.57	1.23
Anderson	ARI	SDP	114.1	4.01	3.78	1.37	40.0%	21.6%	8.2%	1.26	1.12
Morrow	SDP	ARI	33.1	5.67	4.23	1.65		20.3%	12.2%	0.54	1.67
Walker	SEA	LAD	38	2.61	3.97	1.29		21.3%	11.3%	0.47	1.78
Anderson	LAD	SEA	43.1	2.91	3.61	1.32	20.0%	16.1%	7.2%	0.21	2.77
Matzek	COL	SFG	117.2	4.05	4.08	1.39	25.0%	18.1%	8.8%	0.69	1.64
Lincecum	SFG	COL	155.2	4.74	3.95	1.39	40.0%	19.9%	9.4%	1.10	1.60

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

There is not a single pitcher worth committing all of my chips today. All of the aces have the day off, and even the more trustworthy arms are dealing with difficult matchups in what is shaping up to be a high-octane day for offense.

RAISE:

The value plays and next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday, but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Lance Lynn, STL (vs. MIL) – Milwaukee has an imposing lineup, and though the Brewers have managed an NL-low 21 runs scored so far this season (tied with Philadelphia), it’s only a matter of time before a groove settles in for Carlos Gomez, Ryan Braun, and particularly Jonathan Lucroy, who is 2-for-23 in his first half-dozen ballgames. That time may have to wait one more day, as Lynn is coming off of a first-turn gem against the Cubs and he has a sparkling track record against the Brewers. Lynn has pitched 67.7 innings against the Brew Crew in his career, compiling a 2.26 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 74 strikeouts.

Collin McHugh, HOU (vs. OAK) – The gains that McHugh made last season were legit, as he had the B-grade delivery, low-90s gas, and a pair of effective breaking pitches to support the legitimacy of his breakout season. He kept right on rolling into 2015, allowing one run and seven baserunners to the Rangers in his first start of the season. He draws a tough assignment in his second go-around, meeting an Oakland team that has completely morphed its starting lineup into something unrecognizable when compared to last season, but which has surprisingly led MLB in the early-going with 55 runs scored across nine games.

Drew Pomeranz, OAK (at HOU) – The 17 runs that have been scored by the Astros this season mark the second-lowest total in the game, and the combination of precocious youth with a tendency to swing empty has made Houston a dream destination for pitchers. Houston does have some hitters who specialize in hitting lefties, such as offseason import Evan Gattis, but the catcher-turned-outfielder has struggled just to rediscover his swing in the season’s first week, going 2-for-28 with 13 strikeouts and just one walk thus far. Pomeranz was excellent in his season debut, allowing just a pair of baserunners to the Mariners across six shutout frames, and he is in a good position to make it a two-start run of top-rotation quality.

Francisco Liriano, PIT (vs. DET) – Liriano is a complete wild card, with a career that has featured dominant appearances intermixed with low-command clunkers in which nobody has any idea if he’ll come close to the next target. The Tigers are one of the top hitting teams in baseball, have recently converted to bludgeoning mode as Miguel Cabrera put the team on his back, and are well-positioned for a monster day against an erratic southpaw. Liriano has surrendered an OPS that is 133 points higher versus right-handed bats than lefties, and the Detroit lineup is stacked with hitters who enjoy southpaws, From Cabrera’s extra 50 points of OBP to Ian Kinsler’s additional 113 points of OPS and the .640 slugging percentage of last season’s rock-star, J.D. Martinez. Liriano can spin a gem at any time, but the odds are stacked against such an occurrence taking place today in Pittsburgh.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Haren	0.290	3.42	0.333	4.63	0.236	0.651	0.276	4.09	0.248	96.75	18.7%
Stults	0.342	5.29	0.341	3.93	0.272	0.709	0.296	4.63	0.276	88.53	14.6%
Danks	0.317	4.11	0.355	4.96	0.252	0.672	0.291	4.76	0.266	103.06	15.1%
Bauer	0.324	4.34	0.329	4.02	0.251	0.705	0.312	4.01	0.255	99.65	21.6%
Gonzalez	0.284	3.79	0.293	3.51	0.242	0.690	0.294	3.03	0.226	97.15	24.8%
Miley	0.326	5.32	0.331	4.06	0.268	0.728	0.317	3.98	0.263	97.48	21.1%
Santiago	0.274	2.34	0.326	4.27	0.276	0.755	0.288	4.29	0.246	75.77	19.9%
Ranaudo	0.378	5.03	0.342	4.58	0.254	0.716	0.225	6.89	0.253	90.71	8.8%
Eovaldi	0.336	4.30	0.304	4.45	0.257	0.732	0.323	3.37	0.277	96.91	16.6%
Norris	0.333	3.81	0.296	3.47	0.240	0.677	0.279	4.22	0.24	98.07	20.2%
Simon	0.313	3.92	0.296	2.97	0.260	0.746	0.265	4.33	0.241	94.19	15.5%
Liriano	0.331	4.20	0.284	3.20	0.285	0.789	0.280	3.59	0.215	93.59	25.3%
Ramirez	0.353	5.23	0.371	5.29	0.263	0.750	0.307	5.38	0.275	76.06	17.8%
Buehrle	0.318	3.48	0.332	3.35	0.249	0.693	0.316	3.66	0.283	96.31	13.9%
Williams	0.348	4.70	0.320	4.85	0.241	0.685	0.313	4.16	0.275	49.51	16.5%
Niese	0.289	4.21	0.329	3.14	0.240	0.674	0.304	3.67	0.263	93.07	17.6%
Marquis					0.233	0.671
Wood	0.276	4.13	0.371	5.37	0.236	0.675	0.320	4.38	0.272	98.23	18.7%
Pomeranz	0.300	1.20	0.259	2.67	0.267	0.747	0.244	3.77	0.203	56.90	23.0%
McHugh	0.272	2.58	0.252	2.95	0.246	0.709	0.259	3.11	0.205	99.44	25.4%
Volquez	0.321	3.44	0.286	2.74	0.251	0.715	0.263	4.15	0.229	93.03	17.3%
Gibson	0.315	4.11	0.291	4.84	0.261	0.682	0.287	3.80	0.255	90.32	14.1%
Peralta	0.361	5.12	0.277	2.08	0.252	0.679	0.295	4.11	0.257	99.75	18.4%
Lynn	0.314	2.98	0.284	2.57	0.254	0.708	0.290	3.35	0.235	104.55	20.9%
Anderson	0.314	3.76	0.363	4.23	0.229	0.640	0.313	4.22	0.264	90.10	21.6%
Morrow	0.412	6.35	0.318	4.96	0.250	0.679	0.357	3.73	0.285	47.54	20.3%
Walker	0.333	2.86	0.229	2.25	0.271	0.746	0.282	3.68	0.223	78.13	21.3%
Anderson	0.324	4.63	0.291	2.27	0.240	0.636	0.314	2.99	0.263	83.00	16.1%
Matzek	0.199	2.27	0.372	4.71	0.258	0.708	0.312	3.78	0.263	88.20	18.1%
Lincecum	0.335	4.81	0.346	4.68	0.276	0.763	0.299	4.31	0.255	80.76	19.9%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Brett Anderson, LAD (vs. SEA) – The oft-injured Anderson posted a quality start in his first turn of the 2015 season, just falling within the arbitrary confines of the statistic with 6.0 innings pitched and three earned runs allowed against the Diamondbacks. His pitch count of 94 throws was encouraging, as the rotation-thin Dodgers will need Anderson to cover as many innings as possible this season. He faces a Seattle ballclub that will see power infielders Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager lose some of their luster with a southpaw on the mound, but Nelson Cruz steps in with a 77-point OPS advantage against lefties and having knocked five bombs in the early season to re-take the AL lead after his 40-bomb campaign of yesteryear.

Wily Peralta, MIL (at STL) – Peralta is widely viewed as a breakout candidate this season, thanks to a blazing fastball that averaged 96.5 mph last season and a diminished walk rate that reflects his development in avoiding mistakes. He stopped the Colorado juggernaut that was in the middle of treating Wrigley as Coors Field Midwest, tossing 88 pitches across seven innings of two-run baseball, but he will need a repeat performance to come up victorious against the deep roster of the St. Louis Cardinals.

Nate Eovaldi, NYY (at BAL) – The world keeps waiting for a breakout from the man with one of the game’s hardest fastballs. He throws a pair of breaking pitches, both of which have below-average whiff rates when compared to other curves and sliders, and the infrequency with which opposing batters are late on his fastball indicates that hitters are getting a good look at the baseball. He has evolved his repertoire to include a splitter this season, a huge development for a pitcher who previously lacked an off-speed offering, but the early returns on the pitch quality indicate that he still has a lot of work before the split-finger becomes a dangerous weapon.

Taijuan Walker, SEA (at LAD) – Walker was poised to announce his presence with authority to MLB, following a shutdown spring that built confidence in the young man as well as his fantasy managers. Then, after coughing up just two runs across 27 Spring Training innings, Walker was pasted for nine earnies against the Athletics in his regular season debut. The blow-up will cause some DFS managers to run for the hills until he gets his stat line back on track, and that strategy is prescient in light of his hefty opponent on Wednesday night, but don’t sleep on Walker because the phenom could turn things back around in a hurry.

Jon Niese, NYM (vs. PHI) – Niese is a somewhat yawn-inducing pitcher, throwing his high-80s fastball 75-percent of the time with various degrees of sink and cut, but he should benefit from a weak Philly lineup that has scored the fewest runs in the NL this season, as well as the fact that the Phillies best hitter is taken down a peg in the power department when a southpaw is on the mound.

Brandon Morrow, SD (vs. ARI) – Morrow has burned too many bridges for one start to regain the trust of his former followers, but the underlying indicators all point in the right direction. His average fastball velocity of 95.0 mph (topping out at 98.5 mph) was higher than anything that he had established in the previous five years, and his split was a regular feature in his arsenal once again. He gets the marine layer of San Diego as a buffer to his stat-line, and Morrow could be in line for another big game if he shows up with the same stuff that was present in his first turn.

Edinson Volquez, KC (at MIN) – Volquez spent years violating the circle of trust, and if one season of vastly-improved performance was not enough to convince people that something had changed, then they are unlikely to be swayed by a single start at the beginning of the season. He draws a soft opponent in Minnesota, a club that has scored an MLB-low 16 runs this season, and their continued struggles would continue to perpetuate the Volquez improvement story for at least another week.

Tim Lincecum, SF (vs. COL) – Just when you think the writing is on the wall and Timmy Lincecum will be rebranded as a late-inning reliever, he is pressed into the rotation once again to see if he can repeat his high-octane delivery 100-plus times in a day. The Rockies offense is a terror at home yet has a long history of power outages on the road, but they broke the mold to start this season and treated their opening set of games in Chicago as if the air was equally thin at sea level. He has a long history with Rockies mashers Carlos Gonzalez (53 plate appearances head-to-head) and Troy Tulowitzki (62 PA), and though Tulo has been handled thus far to the tune of a 675 OPS, CarGo has treated Lincecum like a punching bag with a .277/.358/.553 line in his career.

Mark Buehrle, TOR (vs. TB)
Alfredo Simon, DET (at PIT)
Jerome Williams, (PHI) (at NYM)
Travis Wood, CHC (vs. CIN)
Chase Anderson, ARI (at SD)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Jason Marquis, CIN (at CHC)
Kyle Gibson, MIN (vs. KC)
Tyler Matzek, COL (at SF)
Bud Norris, BAL (vs. NYY)
Erasmo Ramirez, TB (at TOR)

Starting Pitcher Salaries

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlander’s % Top stat would be 50%.

NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window