Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, April 22nd
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
**Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE*
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kluber | CLE | CWS | 235.2 | 2.44 | 2.61 | 1.09 | 57.1% | 28.3% | 5.4% | 0.53 | 1.57 |
| Samardzija | CWS | CLE | 219.2 | 2.99 | 3.06 | 1.07 | 60.0% | 23.0% | 4.9% | 0.82 | 1.64 |
| Lackey | STL | WAS | 198 | 3.82 | 3.64 | 1.28 | 57.9% | 19.7% | 5.6% | 1.09 | 1.31 |
| Fister | WAS | STL | 164 | 2.41 | 3.93 | 1.08 | 58.3% | 14.8% | 3.6% | 0.99 | 1.43 |
| Cosart | MIA | PHI | 180.1 | 3.69 | 4.36 | 1.36 | 31.6% | 15.0% | 9.5% | 0.45 | 2.05 |
| Hamels | PHI | MIA | 204.2 | 2.46 | 3.29 | 1.15 | 58.8% | 23.9% | 7.1% | 0.62 | 1.49 |
| Hammel | CHC | PIT | 176.1 | 3.47 | 3.50 | 1.12 | 47.4% | 22.1% | 6.2% | 1.17 | 1.03 |
| Worley | PIT | CHC | 110.2 | 2.85 | 3.68 | 1.21 | 40.0% | 17.3% | 4.8% | 0.73 | 1.63 |
| Jimenez | BAL | TOR | 125.1 | 4.81 | 4.61 | 1.52 | 27.8% | 21.0% | 13.9% | 1.01 | 1.13 |
| Sanchez | TOR | BAL | 33 | 1.09 | 2.53 | 0.70 | 22.3% | 7.4% | 0.27 | 3.38 | |
| Warren | NYY | DET | 78.2 | 2.97 | 3.01 | 1.11 | 23.5% | 7.4% | 0.46 | 1.46 | |
| Price | DET | NYY | 248.1 | 3.26 | 2.72 | 1.08 | 52.4% | 26.9% | 3.8% | 0.91 | 1.08 |
| Stults | ATL | NYM | 176 | 4.30 | 4.33 | 1.38 | 26.3% | 14.6% | 5.9% | 1.33 | 1.22 |
| Gee | NYM | ATL | 137.1 | 4.00 | 4.30 | 1.25 | 50.0% | 16.5% | 7.5% | 1.18 | 1.17 |
| Kelly | BOS | TBR | 96.1 | 4.20 | 4.29 | 1.35 | 40.0% | 15.9% | 10.1% | 0.75 | 2.31 |
| Karns | TBR | BOS | 12 | 4.50 | 3.24 | 0.92 | 26.5% | 8.2% | 2.25 | 1.00 | |
| Cueto | CIN | MIL | 243.2 | 2.25 | 3.15 | 0.96 | 76.2% | 25.2% | 6.8% | 0.81 | 1.34 |
| Nelson | MIL | CIN | 69.1 | 4.93 | 3.76 | 1.46 | 18.3% | 6.1% | 0.78 | 1.52 | |
| Pelfrey | MIN | KCR | 23.2 | 7.99 | 6.45 | 1.99 | 8.4% | 15.1% | 1.90 | 1.15 | |
| Guthrie | KCR | MIN | 202.2 | 4.13 | 4.34 | 1.30 | 42.1% | 14.4% | 5.7% | 1.02 | 1.19 |
| Shields | SDP | COL | 227 | 3.21 | 3.59 | 1.18 | 42.9% | 19.2% | 4.7% | 0.91 | 1.33 |
| Kendrick | COL | SDP | 199 | 4.61 | 4.45 | 1.36 | 30.0% | 14.0% | 6.6% | 1.13 | 1.29 |
| Gallardo | TEX | ARI | 192.1 | 3.51 | 3.78 | 1.29 | 50.0% | 17.9% | 6.6% | 0.98 | 1.75 |
| Bradley | ARI | TEX | |||||||||
| Gray | OAK | LAA | 219 | 3.08 | 3.56 | 1.19 | 60.0% | 20.4% | 8.2% | 0.62 | 2.19 |
| Weaver | LAA | OAK | 213.1 | 3.59 | 4.18 | 1.21 | 52.4% | 19.0% | 7.3% | 1.14 | 0.69 |
| Hernandez | HOU | SEA | 164.2 | 4.10 | 4.67 | 1.39 | 35.3% | 14.5% | 10.1% | 1.04 | 1.66 |
| Happ | SEA | HOU | 158 | 4.22 | 3.94 | 1.34 | 30.8% | 19.8% | 7.6% | 1.25 | 1.03 |
| Kershaw | LAD | SFG | 198.1 | 1.77 | 2.09 | 0.86 | 66.7% | 31.9% | 4.1% | 0.41 | 1.77 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | LAD | 217.1 | 2.98 | 2.98 | 1.09 | 47.6% | 25.1% | 4.9% | 0.87 | 1.24 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
After two days of no hands worth going all-in, we get a cluster of five pitchers up top, four of which hail from the port side of the rubber. The five-spot of all-ins surpasses the number of raises today, so there are plenty of options when nit-picking the top end starters.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (at SF) – The 12 strikeouts last game were pretty awesome, but for a pitcher who gave up 3 or more runs just eight times last year, his starting off this season with three in a row is a bit of a disappointment. I know, cue the sound of the world’s smallest violin, but I imagine that more was expected from the best pitcher of this generation. His mini-slide likely ends today, and he will stake his claim to the SP throne.
David Price DET (vs. NYY) – The last time that Price faced the Yanks it was an utter disaster, with 12 hits and 8 earned runs allowed through just 2.0 innings. They meet again on the same hallowed grounds, and given that the previous beating was a jab-fest with balls that were finding open space, I have serious reservations as to whether it can be replicated. Though I do have to admit that the pinstripes are a bit more intimidating when A-Rod and Teix are swinging good lumber.
Madison Bumgarner SF (vs. LAD) – This is the game to watch, with Bumgarner and Kershaw leading the charge in a heated duel that has been going on for years. These are the unquestioned aces on top of the greatest rivalry in the game today, and though both pitchers have been slightly off their game to start the 2015 season, I expect both men to rise to the occasion in tonight’s gunfight.
Johnny Cueto CIN (at MIL) – Cueto has not earned quite the accolades of the pitchers above him on this list, but he has performed just as well as they have over the past couple of seasons. DFS gamers needn’t worry about the limited innings on his resume, but might be interested to learn that Cueto had by far the highest K rate of his career last season at 25.2% and is crushing that mark this year at 30.4%; meanwhile, he has posted a career-low walk rate of 3.8%. If the point was that Cueto was supposed to regress this season, it would appear that he missed the memo, and an injury-riddled Brewers opponent ups the optimism that he can return a profit today.
Cole Hamels PHI (vs. MIA) – Hamels has been off his game to start the season, and though the nine walks across 18.0 innings are a little bit concerning, the seven homers allowed are downright shocking. He surrendered four bombs to the Red Sox on Opening Day, and has coughed up at least one gopherball in each start so far. He is likely to rebound via sheer regression, as half the hits that he has given up have left the yard, an unsustainable rate even for a home run derby tosser. Giancarlo Stanton crushes lefties and changeups, has faced Hamels 45 times in his career resulting in a .581 slugging percentage, and will be looking to pad his homer count today in Philadelphia.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Sonny Gray OAK (at LAA) – Gray got through his first two outings nearly unscathed, including an Opening Day gem in which he took a no-no into the eighth frame. His low strikeout rate is easy to excuse after just 21.3 innings of work, though it looks a bit more ominous considering his precipitous fall in the K count in 2014 and a continued downhill slope this season.
Jered Weaver LAA (vs. OAK) – Weaver is a monster at home, and he takes his flyball-heavy ways into the cavernous Angels Stadium to see if he can halt the A’s juggernaut. The Halos disposed of their rivals yesterday in short order, but Weaver’s first three turns featured a lot of crooked numbers against relatively weak offenses, to the extent that one wonders if the mid-80s velocity has finally crossed the line where it can’t be masked by a goofy delivery.
James Shields SD (at COL) – His reliance on the fastball-changeup combination could play well in Colorado, as the breaker-light approach is one the home team is integrating in order to minimize the cost of pitching at altitude. He’s been nothing short of excellent in his first couple of weeks with San Diego, including three quality starts in which he struck out at least a batter per inning, but his resolve will be tested by the harsh conditions of Coors Field.
Archie Bradley ARI (vs. TEX) – Bradley has been on fire for the last two starts, looking much more stable with his delivery than last season and flashing solid repetition of his mechanics, an attribute that was sorely lacking in 2014. The peripherals certainly don’t match the ERA (low K rate, high walk rate, 1.42 ERA), and he is still ironing out the finer elements in his delivery. That volatility could lead to some long outings, but as far as dice-rolls go I love the matchup with Texas.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kluber | 0.304 | 2.53 | 0.246 | 2.34 | 0.251 | 0.705 | 0.316 | 2.35 | 0.232 | 102.94 | 28.3% |
| Samardzija | 0.292 | 2.58 | 0.279 | 3.34 | 0.254 | 0.722 | 0.283 | 3.20 | 0.231 | 101.18 | 23.0% |
| Lackey | 0.316 | 3.29 | 0.327 | 4.38 | 0.248 | 0.709 | 0.305 | 3.78 | 0.262 | 99.29 | 19.7% |
| Fister | 0.306 | 2.48 | 0.273 | 2.36 | 0.252 | 0.679 | 0.262 | 3.93 | 0.242 | 98.72 | 14.8% |
| Cosart | 0.312 | 3.53 | 0.293 | 3.84 | 0.243 | 0.662 | 0.290 | 3.77 | 0.251 | 98.23 | 15.0% |
| Hamels | 0.291 | 2.18 | 0.285 | 2.53 | 0.272 | 0.709 | 0.295 | 3.07 | 0.231 | 104.53 | 23.9% |
| Hammel | 0.305 | 3.09 | 0.297 | 3.78 | 0.260 | 0.746 | 0.272 | 3.92 | 0.232 | 93.20 | 22.1% |
| Worley | 0.297 | 2.32 | 0.304 | 3.28 | 0.233 | 0.671 | 0.299 | 3.44 | 0.259 | 87.67 | 17.3% |
| Jimenez | 0.354 | 5.43 | 0.308 | 4.04 | 0.263 | 0.750 | 0.289 | 4.67 | 0.239 | 92.24 | 21.0% |
| Sanchez | 0.223 | 1.54 | 0.149 | 0.84 | 0.257 | 0.732 | 0.157 | 2.80 | 0.126 | 19.38 | 22.3% |
| Warren | 0.236 | 2.21 | 0.307 | 3.64 | 0.274 | 0.745 | 0.272 | 2.89 | 0.212 | 19.30 | 23.5% |
| Price | 0.292 | 3.19 | 0.283 | 3.28 | 0.260 | 0.712 | 0.306 | 2.78 | 0.238 | 109.71 | 26.9% |
| Stults | 0.342 | 5.29 | 0.341 | 3.93 | 0.230 | 0.633 | 0.296 | 4.63 | 0.276 | 88.53 | 14.6% |
| Gee | 0.321 | 4.85 | 0.315 | 3.15 | 0.236 | 0.651 | 0.268 | 4.52 | 0.245 | 96.36 | 16.5% |
| Kelly | 0.318 | 3.60 | 0.307 | 4.86 | 0.246 | 0.681 | 0.274 | 4.37 | 0.24 | 92.94 | 15.9% |
| Karns | 0.245 | 0.682 | 0.148 | 5.72 | 0.163 | 102.50 | 26.5% | ||||
| Cueto | 0.257 | 2.05 | 0.261 | 2.44 | 0.254 | 0.708 | 0.238 | 3.30 | 0.192 | 107.62 | 25.2% |
| Nelson | 0.353 | 4.84 | 0.349 | 5.03 | 0.238 | 0.657 | 0.344 | 3.78 | 0.289 | 79.21 | 18.3% |
| Pelfrey | 0.294 | 4.41 | 0.261 | 0.682 | 0.286 | 7.57 | 0.293 | 0.00 | 8.4% | ||
| Guthrie | 0.364 | 5.13 | 0.270 | 2.97 | 0.251 | 0.715 | 0.294 | 4.32 | 0.268 | 101.09 | 14.4% |
| Shields | 0.309 | 3.02 | 0.310 | 3.43 | 0.276 | 0.763 | 0.295 | 3.59 | 0.253 | 106.82 | 19.2% |
| Kendrick | 0.360 | 5.34 | 0.321 | 4.08 | 0.229 | 0.640 | 0.290 | 4.57 | 0.269 | 96.94 | 14.0% |
| Gallardo | 0.287 | 2.77 | 0.328 | 4.08 | 0.250 | 0.679 | 0.294 | 3.94 | 0.257 | 100.50 | 17.9% |
| Bradley | 0.249 | 0.663 | |||||||||
| Gray | 0.289 | 2.81 | 0.277 | 3.40 | 0.254 | 0.716 | 0.277 | 3.46 | 0.229 | 99.85 | 20.4% |
| Weaver | 0.321 | 3.79 | 0.277 | 3.27 | 0.246 | 0.709 | 0.267 | 4.19 | 0.236 | 98.59 | 19.0% |
| Hernandez | 0.333 | 3.94 | 0.323 | 4.23 | 0.246 | 0.697 | 0.266 | 4.85 | 0.244 | 85.53 | 14.5% |
| Happ | 0.379 | 5.17 | 0.327 | 3.98 | 0.267 | 0.747 | 0.297 | 4.27 | 0.258 | 90.33 | 19.8% |
| Kershaw | 0.215 | 0.96 | 0.237 | 1.96 | 0.258 | 0.708 | 0.278 | 1.81 | 0.194 | 100.81 | 31.9% |
| Bumgarner | 0.239 | 1.84 | 0.301 | 3.31 | 0.248 | 0.716 | 0.296 | 3.05 | 0.235 | 102.18 | 25.1% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
John Lackey STL (at WAS) – Good old Mr. Reliable. The final line is rarely sexy but he gets the job done and is a great running mate for a high-variance arm that offers a bit more extreme on the risk/reward scale.
Joe Kelly BOS (at TB) – Kelly already threw crazy hard, but has been pumping with premium gas in 2015. He is averaging 96.7 mph on his fastballs (weighted average of four-seam and sinker), up more than a full tick from the 95.5 mph that he posted four years ago.
Jimmy Nelson MIL (vs. CIN) – Nelson has the skill-set to spike a big day and punch out a hitter per inning (or more), but his game-to-game consistency leaves much to be desired. He could score high enough to hang with the All-In guys or he could plummet down to Fold territory at a moment’s notice.
Doug Fister WAS (vs. STL) – Fister just continues to find a way to put zeroes on the scoreboard despite mediocre stuff and an angled delivery that he repeats surprisingly well.
Yovani Gallardo TEX (at ARI)
Jason Hammel CHC (at PIT)
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (at TOR) – As cool as it was to see him dominate and as impressed as I was that he kept his motion intact, I just refuse to get back on the Ubaldo bandwagon until I see more – a lot more. His dominant outing in his first turn came against this same Jays club, and as tempting as it may be to pencil him in for another excellent evening of zeroes, I just can’t see him lulling the ferocious Jays to sleep for a second time – aside from Jose Bautista, that is, who has a 2-for-29 mark against Jimenez in his career.
Jarred Cosart MIA (at PHI)
J.A. Happ SEA (vs. HOU)
Aaron Sanchez TOR (vs. BAL)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Vance Worley PIT (vs. CHC)
Jeremy Guthrie KC (vs. MIN)
Dillon Gee NYM (vs. ATL)
Mike Pelfrey MIN (at KC)
Nate Karns TB (vs. BOS)
Adam Warren NYY (at DET)
Roberto Hernandez HOU (at SEA)
Eric Stults ATL (at NYM)
Kyle Kendrick COL (vs. SD)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window