Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, April 29th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garza | MIL | CIN | 163.1 | 3.64 | 4.02 | 1.18 | 35.0% | 18.5% | 7.4% | 0.66 | 1.20 |
| Lorenzen | CIN | MIL | |||||||||
| Smyly | TBR | NYY | 153 | 3.24 | 3.69 | 1.16 | 50.0% | 21.5% | 6.8% | 1.06 | 0.84 |
| Tanaka | NYY | TBR | 136.1 | 2.77 | 2.67 | 1.06 | 66.7% | 26.0% | 3.9% | 0.99 | 1.61 |
| Greene | DET | MIN | 78.2 | 3.78 | 3.41 | 1.40 | 100.0% | 23.5% | 8.4% | 0.92 | 1.78 |
| Hughes | MIN | DET | 209.2 | 3.52 | 3.17 | 1.13 | 45.0% | 21.8% | 1.9% | 0.69 | 0.91 |
| Keuchel | HOU | SDP | 200 | 2.93 | 3.11 | 1.18 | 50.0% | 18.1% | 5.9% | 0.50 | 3.30 |
| Cashner | SDP | HOU | 123.1 | 2.55 | 3.70 | 1.13 | 75.0% | 18.4% | 5.7% | 0.51 | 1.54 |
| Dickey | TOR | BOS | 215.2 | 3.71 | 4.08 | 1.23 | 47.6% | 18.9% | 8.1% | 1.09 | 1.12 |
| Porcello | BOS | TOR | 204.2 | 3.43 | 3.88 | 1.23 | 55.6% | 15.4% | 4.9% | 0.79 | 1.69 |
| Ventura | KCR | CLE | 183 | 3.20 | 3.87 | 1.30 | 44.4% | 20.3% | 8.8% | 0.69 | 1.53 |
| Salazar | CLE | KCR | 110 | 4.25 | 3.33 | 1.38 | 12.5% | 25.3% | 7.4% | 1.06 | 0.82 |
| Sale | CWS | BAL | 174 | 2.17 | 2.56 | 0.97 | 64.3% | 30.4% | 5.7% | 0.67 | 0.99 |
| Tillman | BAL | CWS | 207.1 | 3.34 | 4.26 | 1.23 | 42.9% | 17.2% | 7.6% | 0.91 | 1.03 |
| Zimmermann | WAS | ATL | 199.2 | 2.66 | 3.15 | 1.07 | 52.6% | 22.8% | 3.6% | 0.59 | 1.12 |
| Wood | ATL | WAS | 171.2 | 2.78 | 3.16 | 1.14 | 58.3% | 24.5% | 6.5% | 0.84 | 1.33 |
| Colon | NYM | MIA | 202.1 | 4.09 | 3.75 | 1.23 | 42.1% | 17.9% | 3.6% | 0.98 | 1.02 |
| Latos | MIA | NYM | 102.1 | 3.25 | 4.08 | 1.15 | 66.7% | 17.6% | 6.2% | 0.79 | 0.94 |
| Cole | PIT | CHC | 138 | 3.65 | 3.23 | 1.21 | 28.6% | 24.2% | 7.0% | 0.72 | 1.55 |
| Hendricks | CHC | PIT | 80.1 | 2.46 | 4.06 | 1.08 | 14.6% | 4.7% | 0.45 | 1.46 | |
| Hernandez | SEA | TEX | 236 | 2.14 | 2.50 | 0.92 | 81.0% | 27.2% | 5.0% | 0.61 | 2.14 |
| Rodriguez | TEX | SEA | 26.2 | 6.75 | 4.29 | 1.69 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 3.38 | 1.00 | |
| Harang | PHI | STL | 204.1 | 3.57 | 4.18 | 1.40 | 75.0% | 18.4% | 8.1% | 0.66 | 1.04 |
| Martinez | STL | PHI | 89.1 | 4.03 | 3.45 | 1.41 | 21.8% | 9.3% | 0.40 | 1.88 | |
| Lyles | COL | ARI | 126.2 | 4.33 | 4.10 | 1.37 | 58.3% | 16.5% | 8.4% | 0.85 | 2.01 |
| Collmenter | ARI | COL | 179.1 | 3.46 | 4.18 | 1.13 | 29.4% | 16.0% | 5.4% | 0.90 | 0.97 |
| Shoemaker | LAA | OAK | 136 | 3.04 | 3.19 | 1.07 | 44.4% | 22.8% | 4.4% | 0.93 | 1.05 |
| Hahn | OAK | LAA | 73.1 | 3.07 | 3.73 | 1.21 | 57.1% | 22.9% | 10.5% | 0.49 | 1.83 |
| Vogelsong | SFG | LAD | 184.2 | 4.00 | 3.98 | 1.28 | 52.6% | 19.4% | 7.4% | 0.88 | 1.03 |
| Greinke | LAD | SFG | 202.1 | 2.71 | 2.87 | 1.15 | 50.0% | 25.2% | 5.2% | 0.85 | 1.70 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Felix Hernandez SEA (at TEX) – In case you missed his last start. Felix is simply dominant. Opponent doesn’t matter, but for what it’s worth, the King should have no problem ruling over his loyal subjects from Arlington.
Zack Greinke LAD (vs. SF) – The Giants surprisingly stuck it to Kershaw, so I see no reason why they can’t pull a few more rabbits out of the hat against Greinke, though the Dodger right-hander has sprinted out of the gate while his teammate has started more slowly than usual.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Jordan Zimmermann WAS (at ATL) – Zimmer is typically an all-in guy, and facing a light-hitting team like the Braves would typically seal the deal, but the right-hander has been dealing with diminished stuff, softer command, and porous defense through his first few starts. The velocity is down more than two ticks from this time last season, and he is catching more plate than usual due to off-kilter pitch command. He is still a strong investment, but last season’s dominance will likely factor into the price and he has a little ways to go before reaching the performance level of 2014.
Gerrit Cole PIT (at CHC) – Cole is getting stronger with every start, increasing his pitch counts while covering at least six frames while allowing just a single run in three straight outings. His best start of the season was against his toughest opponent, with 8 K’s and just 5 baserunners across six innings against Detroit, and if Cole was unfazed by the power generators in Detroit, then he is unlikely to be deterred by the youth and exuberance that is pulsating on the north side of Chicago.
Carlos Martinez STL (vs. PHI) – There’s very little about Car-Mart’s motion which suggests that he can repeat his release point, with a ton of power yet little stability in his mechanics that involves at least 37 pieces of flail in his follow-through. The performance, however, has been remarkably consistent. If a quality start is defined by 3 earned runs over 6.0 innings or more, then we need a superlative to describe similar efforts of two runs or less (an “impressive start”?), of which Martinez has thrown three in a row and will be looking for number four against the lowest-scoring offense in the NL.
Alex Wood ATL (vs. WAS) – Wood was a close call here, nearly falling into the Call category, but I gave him the benefit of the doubt despite his ridiculous pitching motion. His delivery is a circus act of imbalance, yet he somehow emerges to have strong pitch command, a combination that is as entertaining to watch as it is difficult to believe. Washington is regaining strength after early-season injuries caused them to play with half a deck, though some of the returnees are still shaking off the rust and the Nats are still awaiting the biggest cog to their offensive machine (Anthony Rendon).
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garza | 0.285 | 3.27 | 0.289 | 3.93 | 0.238 | 0.657 | 0.268 | 3.54 | 0.228 | 94.00 | 18.5% |
| Lorenzen | 0.254 | 0.708 | |||||||||
| Smyly | 0.216 | 2.54 | 0.334 | 3.53 | 0.260 | 0.712 | 0.278 | 3.77 | 0.237 | 92.57 | 21.5% |
| Tanaka | 0.280 | 2.41 | 0.302 | 3.21 | 0.246 | 0.681 | 0.299 | 3.04 | 0.238 | 100.45 | 26.0% |
| Greene | 0.345 | 3.63 | 0.297 | 3.92 | 0.251 | 0.715 | 0.330 | 3.73 | 0.261 | 90.20 | 23.5% |
| Hughes | 0.272 | 2.71 | 0.321 | 4.47 | 0.274 | 0.745 | 0.324 | 2.65 | 0.265 | 95.19 | 21.8% |
| Keuchel | 0.268 | 2.61 | 0.299 | 3.03 | 0.220 | 0.616 | 0.295 | 3.21 | 0.248 | 104.14 | 18.1% |
| Cashner | 0.294 | 3.45 | 0.256 | 1.71 | 0.233 | 0.673 | 0.274 | 3.09 | 0.231 | 94.58 | 18.4% |
| Dickey | 0.300 | 2.97 | 0.324 | 4.32 | 0.245 | 0.682 | 0.263 | 4.32 | 0.231 | 103.32 | 18.9% |
| Porcello | 0.320 | 3.12 | 0.302 | 3.83 | 0.263 | 0.750 | 0.298 | 3.67 | 0.265 | 95.47 | 15.4% |
| Ventura | 0.288 | 2.68 | 0.316 | 3.93 | 0.254 | 0.722 | 0.288 | 3.60 | 0.237 | 96.29 | 20.3% |
| Salazar | 0.309 | 3.14 | 0.342 | 4.97 | 0.261 | 0.682 | 0.343 | 3.52 | 0.268 | 93.45 | 25.3% |
| Sale | 0.183 | 0.00 | 0.272 | 2.71 | 0.253 | 0.738 | 0.280 | 2.57 | 0.203 | 105.88 | 30.4% |
| Tillman | 0.299 | 3.04 | 0.299 | 3.71 | 0.251 | 0.705 | 0.267 | 4.01 | 0.236 | 100.32 | 17.2% |
| Zimmermann | 0.290 | 2.92 | 0.269 | 2.41 | 0.236 | 0.651 | 0.302 | 2.68 | 0.242 | 91.38 | 22.8% |
| Wood | 0.299 | 2.09 | 0.288 | 3.01 | 0.268 | 0.728 | 0.295 | 3.25 | 0.235 | 76.66 | 24.5% |
| Colon | 0.299 | 4.10 | 0.331 | 4.08 | 0.247 | 0.690 | 0.307 | 3.57 | 0.269 | 97.13 | 17.9% |
| Latos | 0.271 | 2.57 | 0.306 | 3.88 | 0.241 | 0.685 | 0.269 | 3.65 | 0.235 | 95.81 | 17.6% |
| Cole | 0.326 | 2.81 | 0.294 | 4.38 | 0.233 | 0.671 | 0.311 | 3.23 | 0.243 | 99.86 | 24.2% |
| Hendricks | 0.261 | 2.41 | 0.282 | 2.51 | 0.260 | 0.746 | 0.271 | 3.32 | 0.238 | 88.92 | 14.6% |
| Hernandez | 0.233 | 1.20 | 0.259 | 3.39 | 0.249 | 0.663 | 0.258 | 2.56 | 0.197 | 101.00 | 27.2% |
| Rodriguez | 0.463 | 6.75 | 0.240 | 0.636 | 0.310 | 7.41 | 0.316 | 0.00 | 16.0% | ||
| Harang | 0.330 | 2.86 | 0.312 | 4.17 | 0.252 | 0.679 | 0.318 | 3.57 | 0.267 | 102.85 | 18.4% |
| Martinez | 0.363 | 5.65 | 0.275 | 2.91 | 0.243 | 0.662 | 0.333 | 3.18 | 0.26 | 24.19 | 21.8% |
| Lyles | 0.372 | 3.39 | 0.290 | 5.21 | 0.250 | 0.679 | 0.295 | 4.22 | 0.258 | 95.45 | 16.5% |
| Collmenter | 0.327 | 3.22 | 0.268 | 3.69 | 0.276 | 0.763 | 0.267 | 3.87 | 0.241 | 82.39 | 16.0% |
| Shoemaker | 0.308 | 3.34 | 0.271 | 2.73 | 0.246 | 0.709 | 0.286 | 3.26 | 0.237 | 77.81 | 22.8% |
| Hahn | 0.291 | 4.14 | 0.278 | 1.98 | 0.254 | 0.716 | 0.270 | 3.40 | 0.211 | 84.29 | 22.9% |
| Vogelsong | 0.346 | 3.90 | 0.301 | 4.08 | 0.271 | 0.746 | 0.294 | 3.85 | 0.25 | 95.56 | 19.4% |
| Greinke | 0.277 | 2.06 | 0.304 | 3.30 | 0.253 | 0.695 | 0.311 | 2.97 | 0.245 | 100.31 | 25.2% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Mat Latos MIA (vs. NYM) – Latos is still recovering from the seven earned runs that he surrendered in the first inning of Opening Day, so his stat line will still look pretty rough for a few weeks at minimum, but he has rebounded decently when looking at his game log. Latos has an ERA of 3.52 over his other three starts, throwing more innings each game and expanding his pitch count. The short outing to start the year may have stunted his April progression, but Latos could hit triple digits on his pitch count today if his performance warrants leaving him in the ballgame.
Bartolo Colon NYM (at MIA) – Colon just keeps defying expectation. It’s hard to imagine that a pitcher with his physique is a professional athlete, let alone one that is really good (2.77 ERA) at age 42. He has 23 strikeouts and just a single walk in 26 frames, a 4-0 record, and a relatively pedestrian hit rate that adds fuel to the fire that his performance is legit. To add to the enigma, Colon survives on a healthy diet of 85-92 mph fastballs (87 percent frequency) with subtle movement and which he locates at will.
Matt Shoemaker LAA (at OAK) – There is still some question as to whether Shoemaker will make this start, after he was scratched from his last outing to deal with a personal matter. The right-hander has had a rough start to the year that has acted to confirm some suspicions that he played over his head last season, but he faces an Oakland club that started hot but has fizzled of late. It’s a classic case of slumping offense meets struggling pitcher, and it’s anyone’s guess as to which side will prevail.
Jesse Hahn OAK (vs. LAA) – Don’t be deceived by the high error count, as the A’s rank fourth in baseball this season in Defensive Efficiency (according to Baseball Prospectus). The groundballing Hahn will attempt to take advantage of Oakland’s strong defense to keep the Angels at bay, a quest made easier by a slumping Albert Pujols and a lineup that is a bit overcrowded with utility infielders.
Kyle Hendricks CHC (vs. PIT) – The Pirates have been plagued by injury, particularly with franchise player Andrew McCutchen trying to play through obvious pain, and a control artist such as Hendricks could have a relatively easy afternoon despite the intimidating lineup and power-friendly ballpark.
Jordan Lyles COL (at ARI) – The 2.92 ERA is shiny and unexpected, not only because Lyles pitches for the Rox, but also due to his career ERA of 5.09 entering the season. His component numbers are more reflective of his performance, including 14 strikeouts and 11 walks in 24.7 innings this season. Some gamers might be tempted to use Lyles on the road, but keep in mind that Arizona was the only ballpark to record a higher park factor than Colorado (for left-handed bats).
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Aaron Harang PHI (at STL)
Josh Collmenter ARI (vs. COL)
Wandy Rodriguez TEX (vs. SEA)
Ryan Vogelsong SF (at LAD)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
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