Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, April 8th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off. But we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolasco | MIN | DET | 159 | 5.38 | 4.06 | 1.52 | 16.7% | 16.6% | 5.5% | 1.25 | 1.16 |
| Sanchez | DET | MIN | 126 | 3.43 | 3.64 | 1.10 | 41.2% | 19.8% | 5.8% | 0.29 | 1.31 |
| Lynn | STL | CHC | 203.2 | 2.74 | 3.84 | 1.26 | 60.0% | 20.9% | 8.3% | 0.57 | 1.23 |
| Arrieta | CHC | STL | 156.2 | 2.53 | 2.83 | 0.99 | 50.0% | 27.2% | 6.7% | 0.29 | 1.73 |
| Dickey | TOR | NYY | 215.2 | 3.71 | 4.08 | 1.23 | 47.6% | 18.9% | 8.1% | 1.09 | 1.12 |
| Pineda | NYY | TOR | 76.1 | 1.89 | 3.38 | 0.83 | 75.0% | 20.3% | 2.4% | 0.59 | 0.92 |
| Degrom | NYM | WAS | 140.1 | 2.69 | 3.19 | 1.14 | 50.0% | 25.5% | 7.6% | 0.45 | 1.44 |
| Zimmermann | WAS | NYM | 199.2 | 2.66 | 3.15 | 1.07 | 52.6% | 22.8% | 3.6% | 0.59 | 1.12 |
| Porcello | BOS | PHI | 204.2 | 3.43 | 3.88 | 1.23 | 55.6% | 15.4% | 4.9% | 0.79 | 1.69 |
| Harang | PHI | BOS | 204.1 | 3.57 | 4.18 | 1.40 | 75.0% | 18.4% | 8.1% | 0.66 | 1.04 |
| Cole | PIT | CIN | 138 | 3.65 | 3.23 | 1.21 | 28.6% | 24.2% | 7.0% | 0.72 | 1.55 |
| Leake | CIN | PIT | 214.1 | 3.70 | 3.51 | 1.25 | 45.0% | 18.2% | 5.5% | 0.97 | 2.02 |
| Gonzalez | BAL | TBR | 159 | 3.23 | 4.40 | 1.30 | 40.0% | 16.5% | 7.6% | 1.42 | 0.89 |
| Odorizzi | TBR | BAL | 168 | 4.13 | 3.66 | 1.28 | 36.8% | 24.2% | 8.2% | 1.07 | 0.61 |
| Miller | ATL | MIA | 183 | 3.74 | 4.60 | 1.27 | 21.1% | 16.6% | 9.6% | 1.08 | 0.97 |
| Koehler | MIA | ATL | 191.1 | 3.81 | 4.16 | 1.30 | 52.6% | 19.1% | 8.8% | 0.75 | 1.11 |
| Butler | COL | MIL | 16 | 6.75 | 5.65 | 1.88 | 4.0% | 9.2% | 1.13 | 2.20 | |
| Peralta | MIL | COL | 198.2 | 3.53 | 3.73 | 1.30 | 47.4% | 18.4% | 7.3% | 1.04 | 1.94 |
| Carrasco | CLE | HOU | 134 | 2.55 | 2.58 | 0.99 | 26.5% | 5.5% | 0.47 | 1.91 | |
| Feldman | HOU | CLE | 180.1 | 3.74 | 4.33 | 1.30 | 47.1% | 14.0% | 6.5% | 0.80 | 1.53 |
| Quintana | CWS | KCR | 200.1 | 3.32 | 3.50 | 1.24 | 50.0% | 21.5% | 6.3% | 0.45 | 1.35 |
| Duffy | KCR | CWS | 149.1 | 2.53 | 4.31 | 1.11 | 57.1% | 18.7% | 8.8% | 0.72 | 0.78 |
| Heston | SFG | ARI | |||||||||
| Hellickson | ARI | SFG | 63.2 | 4.52 | 4.04 | 1.45 | 19.2% | 7.5% | 1.13 | 0.89 | |
| Detwiler | TEX | OAK | 63 | 4.00 | 4.13 | 1.41 | 14.2% | 7.7% | 0.71 | 1.40 | |
| Kazmir | OAK | TEX | 190.1 | 3.55 | 3.61 | 1.16 | 63.2% | 21.1% | 6.4% | 0.76 | 1.18 |
| Cashner | SDP | LAD | 123.1 | 2.55 | 3.70 | 1.13 | 75.0% | 18.4% | 5.7% | 0.51 | 1.54 |
| McCarthy | LAD | SDP | 200 | 4.05 | 3.00 | 1.28 | 35.0% | 20.9% | 4.0% | 1.13 | 2.13 |
| Shoemaker | LAA | SEA | 136 | 3.04 | 3.19 | 1.07 | 44.4% | 22.8% | 4.4% | 0.93 | 1.05 |
| Iwakuma | SEA | LAA | 179 | 3.52 | 2.94 | 1.05 | 60.0% | 21.7% | 3.0% | 1.01 | 1.75 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Jordan Zimmermann WAS (vs. NYM) – Get used to seeing Washington starters in this space. They’ll be here all season.
Carlos Carrasco CLE (at HOU) – This game has serious strikeout potential; Carrasco fanned 20 batters over 15 innings in two starts versus the Astros down the stretch last season.
Gerrit Cole PIT (at CIN) – Cole was inflated by hype in fantasy circles last season, and the fact that he didn’t take a fast track to superstardom may have lost the interest of some gamers, meanwhile obscuring the improvements that he did make. This year Cole delivers on the hype.
RAISE:
The value plays and next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday, but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Michael Pineda NYY (vs. TOR) – Pineda has incredible upside, and though his checkered past drops his value in full-season leagues, he’s also the type of pitcher who can match up with anyone on a single-game basis. His numbers from last season are eye-popping, including a 1.89 ERA and 0.83 WHIP across 76.3 innings, including a paltry seven walks on the season. The song remained the same in Spring Training, with a 1.42 ERA and 23 strikeouts against a single walk in 19 frames. The Jays are a tough challenge but Pineda could have a big day if he keeps the pine tar out of plain view.
Andrew Cashner SD (at LAD) – Cashner has the ingredients to make the jump to the next tier of pitcher value. He throws extremely hard (average fastball of 96.7 mph, ranked eighth-highest among qualifying starting pitchers), and his two-seamer comes in at nearly the same velocity but with heavy arm-side run that can looks unfair at times. His K rate has been pedestrian the past two seasons, failing to clear the threshold of 7.0 K/9, but he has turned pitch command from a glaring weakness to one of his biggest strengths.
Jake Odorizzi TB (vs. BAL) – Odorizzi has posted impressive strikeout totals throughout his pro career (9.1 K/9 in the minors, 8.8 in the bigs), particularly for a guy with an average fastball. The difference-maker is a deceptive splitter that Odorizzi goes to one-quarter of the time. He plays the split and the four-seamer off of each other, as the pitches look nearly identical until late in the flight path. The Orioles pose a significant threat in the right-hander’s first turn of the season, but his friendly prices entice a gamble.
Jose Quintana CHW (at KC) – He’s the perfect sidekick to a high-volatility arm in a two-pitcher setup. Quintana may not be able to repeat his 2014 rate of 0.4 HR/9 this season, but he is primed to get a head-start against a Kansas City ballclub that hit the fewest homers in baseball last season. His lefty-ness also minimizes the threat of Royal lefties Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, and Mike Moustakas. The only downside is that the Royals are a low-K unit (fewest in the AL last season), so Quintana has a high floor but a limited ceiling.
Scott Kazmir OAK (vs. TEX) – The Rangers are particularly vulnerable to lefties, with platoon splits that include Prince Fielder’s OPS being 165 points lower against southpaws and Sin-shoo Choo tumbling an astounding 228 points of OPS. Kazmir has found a groove over the past couple of seasons, after reinventing himself as a command-first pitcher.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolasco | 0.396 | 5.38 | 0.355 | 5.38 | 0.274 | 0.745 | 0.351 | 4.30 | 0.311 | 97.81 | 16.6% |
| Sanchez | 0.251 | 2.48 | 0.290 | 4.89 | 0.251 | 0.715 | 0.277 | 2.71 | 0.225 | 95.32 | 19.8% |
| Lynn | 0.314 | 2.98 | 0.284 | 2.57 | 0.233 | 0.671 | 0.290 | 3.35 | 0.235 | 104.55 | 20.9% |
| Arrieta | 0.251 | 2.18 | 0.234 | 2.81 | 0.252 | 0.679 | 0.274 | 2.26 | 0.2 | 96.64 | 27.2% |
| Dickey | 0.300 | 2.97 | 0.324 | 4.32 | 0.240 | 0.677 | 0.263 | 4.32 | 0.231 | 103.32 | 18.9% |
| Pineda | 0.233 | 1.33 | 0.230 | 2.52 | 0.263 | 0.750 | 0.233 | 2.71 | 0.198 | 87.69 | 20.3% |
| Degrom | 0.289 | 2.34 | 0.264 | 2.94 | 0.248 | 0.709 | 0.297 | 2.67 | 0.225 | 101.64 | 25.5% |
| Zimmermann | 0.290 | 2.92 | 0.269 | 2.41 | 0.241 | 0.685 | 0.302 | 2.68 | 0.242 | 91.38 | 22.8% |
| Porcello | 0.320 | 3.12 | 0.302 | 3.83 | 0.243 | 0.662 | 0.298 | 3.67 | 0.265 | 95.47 | 15.4% |
| Harang | 0.330 | 2.86 | 0.312 | 4.17 | 0.245 | 0.682 | 0.318 | 3.57 | 0.267 | 102.85 | 18.4% |
| Cole | 0.326 | 2.81 | 0.294 | 4.38 | 0.238 | 0.657 | 0.311 | 3.23 | 0.243 | 99.86 | 24.2% |
| Leake | 0.352 | 3.91 | 0.297 | 3.54 | 0.260 | 0.746 | 0.298 | 3.88 | 0.259 | 97.42 | 18.2% |
| Gonzalez | 0.340 | 2.81 | 0.321 | 3.72 | 0.246 | 0.681 | 0.273 | 4.89 | 0.253 | 94.52 | 16.5% |
| Odorizzi | 0.294 | 4.15 | 0.324 | 4.09 | 0.257 | 0.732 | 0.295 | 3.75 | 0.238 | 97.68 | 24.2% |
| Miller | 0.314 | 4.19 | 0.307 | 3.38 | 0.247 | 0.690 | 0.256 | 4.54 | 0.232 | 89.31 | 16.6% |
| Koehler | 0.292 | 3.43 | 0.329 | 4.22 | 0.236 | 0.651 | 0.290 | 3.84 | 0.244 | 91.91 | 19.1% |
| Butler | 0.334 | 5.06 | 0.254 | 0.708 | 0.328 | 5.69 | 0.333 | 0.00 | 4.0% | ||
| Peralta | 0.361 | 5.12 | 0.277 | 2.08 | 0.276 | 0.763 | 0.295 | 4.11 | 0.257 | 99.75 | 18.4% |
| Carrasco | 0.236 | 2.51 | 0.252 | 2.60 | 0.233 | 0.673 | 0.274 | 2.44 | 0.207 | 48.90 | 26.5% |
| Feldman | 0.314 | 2.78 | 0.325 | 4.86 | 0.254 | 0.722 | 0.291 | 4.11 | 0.263 | 102.21 | 14.0% |
| Quintana | 0.302 | 4.86 | 0.290 | 2.76 | 0.266 | 0.710 | 0.318 | 2.81 | 0.254 | 104.56 | 21.5% |
| Duffy | 0.185 | 1.46 | 0.299 | 2.88 | 0.256 | 0.717 | 0.239 | 3.83 | 0.206 | 78.35 | 18.7% |
| Heston | 0.250 | 0.679 | |||||||||
| Hellickson | 0.261 | 3.76 | 0.423 | 5.68 | 0.253 | 0.695 | 0.321 | 4.15 | 0.275 | 90.62 | 19.2% |
| Detwiler | 0.235 | 1.61 | 0.368 | 5.31 | 0.239 | 0.681 | 0.309 | 4.16 | 0.274 | 22.04 | 14.2% |
| Kazmir | 0.304 | 3.68 | 0.285 | 3.51 | 0.276 | 0.755 | 0.285 | 3.35 | 0.237 | 93.22 | 21.1% |
| Cashner | 0.294 | 3.45 | 0.256 | 1.71 | 0.271 | 0.746 | 0.274 | 3.09 | 0.231 | 94.58 | 18.4% |
| McCarthy | 0.330 | 4.01 | 0.321 | 4.10 | 0.229 | 0.640 | 0.328 | 3.55 | 0.278 | 95.13 | 20.9% |
| Shoemaker | 0.308 | 3.34 | 0.271 | 2.73 | 0.246 | 0.697 | 0.286 | 3.26 | 0.237 | 77.81 | 22.8% |
| Iwakuma | 0.309 | 3.42 | 0.252 | 3.62 | 0.254 | 0.716 | 0.287 | 3.25 | 0.243 | 90.79 | 21.7% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (vs. LAA) – Iwakuma would normally fit into the raise section (or even all-in vs. the right opponent), but his most effective weapon is the splitter and a blister on his finger has recently compromised his ability to throw it. The issue is not really being built into his prices, so for this day I’m unwilling to run the risk, at least until I see that the trap-door split is still bottoming out and claiming victims with it’s regular frequency. He’s also facing the Angels, a lineup that has several hitters that could make Iwakuma pay for splitters that lack their usual drop.
Jacob deGrom NYM (at WAS) – deGrom faces an uphill climb to repeat last season’s breakout, and though his raw stuff and mechanical baselines are a bit lower than his stats might suggest, the right-hander’s in-season improvements speak well to his learning curve. I can’t wait to see what he brings to the table in 2015.
Brandon McCarthy LAD (vs. SD) – The injury issues that typically mar McCarthy’s value are not a worry in DFS, though his value in today’s game takes a hit as he faces a completely restocked Padre lineup. Last season’s breakthrough included an extra tick of velocity as part of a multi-year increase in pitch-speed, so I’ll be keeping an eye on his radar-gun readings in the early-going this season.
Matt Shoemaker LAA (at SEA) – Shoemaker’s outta nowhere season involved a combination of in-season improvement and over-his-head performance. The onus is on the right-hander to prove that the second half of 2014 wasn’t a fluke, and though his penchant to avoid the free pass extends back to his minor-league days, the baseline skills do not support his odds to repeat the overall stat-line.
Rick Porcello DET (at PHI) – Porcello now has enough cash to buy a Scrooge McDuck moneybin and fill it with coins (though money-dives elevate injury risk). Luckily his DFS cost will be unaffected, and he only has to focus on spinning his groundball magic against a rebuilding Philly ballclub.
Jeremy Hellickson ARI (vs. SF) – Hellickson has a habit of reinventing himself, and he carries a wide spread of risk and reward against a San Francisco club that will be missing Hunter Pence and Brandon Belt.
Wily Peralta MIL (vs. COL) – Peralta is primed for a breakout season in 2015, and though playing the Rockies on the road seems like an easy ride, the Rox have treated the first two games of this series as if they were still in Denver with 14 extra-base hits. He may have to wait another turn before the breakout officially begins.
Shelby Miller ATL (at MIA)
R.A. Dickey TOR (at NYY)
Tom Koehler MIA (vs. ATL)
Ross Detwiler TEX (at OAK)
Danny Duffy KC (vs. CHW)
Eddie Butler COL (at MIL)
FOLD:
“Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.”
Miguel Gonzalez BAL (at TB)
Mike Leake CIN (vs. PIT)
Scott Feldman HOU (vs. CLE)
Aaron Harang PHI (vs. BOS)
Chris Heston SF (at ARI)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlander’s % Top stat would be 50%.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window