Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, June 3rd
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson | MIL | STL | 112 | 4.66 | 3.75 | 1.34 | 19.8% | 6.9% | 0.96 | 1.49 | |
| Lackey | STL | MIL | 242.2 | 3.71 | 3.78 | 1.27 | 57.9% | 18.9% | 6.0% | 0.96 | 1.33 |
| Tanaka | NYY | SEA | 158.2 | 2.84 | 2.78 | 1.04 | 66.7% | 26.1% | 4.4% | 0.96 | 1.47 |
| Walker | SEA | NYY | 71.2 | 4.77 | 4.09 | 1.49 | 21.0% | 10.3% | 1.00 | 1.32 | |
| Foltynewicz | ATL | ARI | 35.2 | 4.79 | 4.60 | 1.65 | 18.6% | 10.6% | 1.26 | 0.55 | |
| De La Rosa | ARI | ATL | 145.2 | 4.45 | 4.01 | 1.40 | 57.1% | 18.6% | 7.5% | 1.17 | 1.37 |
| Liriano | PIT | SFG | 208 | 3.29 | 3.58 | 1.24 | 12.5% | 25.8% | 11.5% | 0.74 | 1.94 |
| Hudson | SFG | PIT | 234.2 | 3.76 | 3.76 | 1.25 | 68.4% | 14.6% | 4.6% | 0.88 | 2.14 |
| Leake | CIN | PHI | 269 | 3.68 | 3.65 | 1.22 | 45.0% | 17.3% | 5.6% | 1.07 | 2.00 |
| Hamels | PHI | CIN | 255.2 | 2.68 | 3.37 | 1.16 | 58.8% | 24.3% | 7.8% | 0.77 | 1.45 |
| Buehrle | TOR | WAS | 249 | 3.76 | 4.40 | 1.40 | 60.0% | 13.3% | 5.4% | 0.83 | 1.33 |
| Jordan | WAS | TOR | 25.2 | 5.61 | 4.18 | 1.64 | 20.0% | 13.7% | 6.5% | 1.05 | 1.85 |
| Gray | OAK | DET | 275 | 2.78 | 3.53 | 1.14 | 60.0% | 21.2% | 8.0% | 0.52 | 1.99 |
| Sanchez | DET | OAK | 177 | 3.81 | 3.68 | 1.12 | 41.2% | 20.4% | 5.9% | 0.51 | 1.16 |
| Hughes | MIN | BOS | 260.2 | 3.76 | 3.35 | 1.16 | 45.0% | 20.7% | 2.0% | 0.90 | 0.88 |
| Rodriguez | BOS | MIN | |||||||||
| Lester | CHC | MIA | 268.1 | 2.68 | 3.16 | 1.15 | 65.0% | 24.4% | 5.6% | 0.70 | 1.22 |
| Haren | MIA | CHC | 227.1 | 3.96 | 3.84 | 1.16 | 30.0% | 18.4% | 4.7% | 1.39 | 0.99 |
| Sale | CHW | TEX | 209.1 | 2.67 | 2.72 | 1.03 | 64.3% | 29.3% | 6.0% | 0.73 | 1.03 |
| Martinez | TEX | CHW | 188.1 | 3.87 | 5.13 | 1.41 | 27.3% | 12.5% | 8.6% | 0.91 | 0.81 |
| Gonzalez | BAL | HOU | 202 | 3.16 | 4.38 | 1.26 | 40.0% | 17.1% | 8.0% | 1.29 | 0.94 |
| McCullers | HOU | BAL | |||||||||
| Bolsinger | LAD | COL | 69.2 | 4.39 | 3.55 | 1.46 | 33.3% | 20.3% | 7.5% | 1.03 | 2.04 |
| Bettis | COL | LAD | 29.2 | 8.80 | 4.79 | 2.12 | 10.5% | 9.2% | 1.21 | 1.65 | |
| Kluber | CLE | KCR | 288.1 | 2.78 | 2.62 | 1.11 | 57.1% | 28.5% | 5.3% | 0.56 | 1.57 |
| Vargas | KCR | CLE | 212.2 | 3.89 | 4.27 | 1.30 | 68.4% | 15.7% | 5.7% | 0.97 | 0.99 |
| Gee | NYM | SDP | 167.2 | 3.97 | 4.25 | 1.26 | 50.0% | 16.3% | 7.3% | 1.13 | 1.33 |
| Shields | SDP | NYM | 275.1 | 3.33 | 3.44 | 1.20 | 42.9% | 21.3% | 5.2% | 1.14 | 1.29 |
| Karns | TBR | LAA | 57.1 | 3.92 | 3.88 | 1.12 | 24.0% | 10.5% | 1.41 | 1.26 | |
| Santiago | LAA | TBR | 168.1 | 3.42 | 4.34 | 1.34 | 16.7% | 20.4% | 9.9% | 1.02 | 0.63 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Corey Kluber CLE (at KC) – It was a tough battle at the top with two deserving candidates for today’s throne, but Kluber edges out Sale by the slimmest of margins. Kluber has posted double-digit strikeouts in three of his last four games, with a ridiculous ratio of 50 K’s versus two walks over that span. Combine elite velocity with a two-headed slydra that that has multiple trajectories of break, mix in one of the game’s most efficient deliveries, and enjoy the show.
Chris Sale CHW (at TEX) – Just like Kluber, Sale has cracked double digits in strikeouts in three of his last four starts, though the left-hander’s total count is only slightly less impressive at 40 punchouts and 4 free passes over that same timeframe. He takes a backseat to the AL Cy Young winner through no fault of his own, and Sale’s opponent has heated up the offense of late while Kluber gets to face a Royals offense that has lost its way at the plate.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Jon Lester CHC (at MIA) – The lefty had a rocky start to the season, but the month of May was vintage Lester: 6-for-6 in quality starts, registering 21 outs in five of the six, and he capped it off with a 10-K performance against the Nationals. Lester gets an easier opponent today, with a Marlins offense that has gone through growing pains this season, currently standing in the bottom third of the National League in scoring runs.
Cole Hamels PHI (vs. CIN) – Similar to fellow southpaw Jon Lester, Hamels had a rough start to the season but has quickly re-established his standing as one of the league’s top starting pitchers. Such a turnaround was vital for a Phillies front office that is hell bent on getting maximum value from their most attractive asset. He has pitched 7.0 or more innings while allowing two or fewer runs in each of his last five starts, and today’s matchup with the low-scoring Reds is unlikely to break the string.
James Shields SD (vs. NYM) – At some point over the off-season, Shields morphed from control artist to strikeout machine, with the caveat that the higher rate of whiffs also resulted in a huge increase in homers allowed. His 11.6 K/9 leads the National League (among qualified starters), and the 15 taters that Shields has served up are the most of any pitcher in the game. The guy gave up 11 homers in the month of May despite pitching three of his six games in the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park.
Sonny Gray OAK (at DET) – Facing the Tigers is a dicey proposition for any hurler at any time, but Gray’s utter dominance this season combines with the recent struggles of the Detroit offense to produce an ideal scenario today. The K rate has been lacking in the last few turns, with just 13 punchouts across his last three starts, but Gray has the in-season prowess and postseason experience to stay composed against the Tigers.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson | 0.347 | 4.89 | 0.305 | 3.93 | 0.279 | 0.762 | 0.317 | 3.99 | 0.267 | 82.95 | 19.8% |
| Lackey | 0.320 | 3.43 | 0.303 | 3.93 | 0.232 | 0.650 | 0.300 | 3.72 | 0.258 | 98.55 | 18.9% |
| Tanaka | 0.273 | 2.31 | 0.294 | 3.39 | 0.234 | 0.660 | 0.287 | 3.05 | 0.228 | 98.63 | 26.1% |
| Walker | 0.365 | 4.70 | 0.322 | 5.66 | 0.228 | 0.694 | 0.320 | 4.31 | 0.263 | 82.73 | 21.0% |
| Foltynewicz | 0.256 | 0.693 | 0.339 | 4.71 | 0.292 | 32.89 | 18.6% | ||||
| De La Rosa | 0.369 | 5.29 | 0.301 | 3.50 | 0.255 | 0.707 | 0.314 | 4.25 | 0.274 | 94.08 | 18.6% |
| Liriano | 0.317 | 4.57 | 0.281 | 3.23 | 0.254 | 0.682 | 0.267 | 3.55 | 0.205 | 94.36 | 25.8% |
| Hudson | 0.333 | 3.84 | 0.305 | 3.96 | 0.234 | 0.642 | 0.299 | 3.88 | 0.27 | 90.08 | 14.6% |
| Leake | 0.358 | 4.58 | 0.290 | 3.38 | 0.207 | 0.567 | 0.283 | 4.09 | 0.252 | 97.59 | 17.3% |
| Hamels | 0.268 | 1.55 | 0.290 | 2.87 | 0.224 | 0.668 | 0.287 | 3.35 | 0.227 | 104.71 | 24.3% |
| Buehrle | 0.340 | 4.10 | 0.336 | 3.63 | 0.221 | 0.751 | 0.319 | 3.93 | 0.29 | 94.80 | 13.3% |
| Jordan | 0.228 | 2.45 | 0.453 | 7.98 | 0.235 | 0.718 | 0.330 | 4.50 | 0.298 | 0.00 | 13.7% |
| Gray | 0.275 | 2.52 | 0.270 | 3.08 | 0.291 | 0.803 | 0.272 | 3.24 | 0.22 | 100.32 | 21.2% |
| Sanchez | 0.269 | 3.04 | 0.323 | 6.10 | 0.279 | 0.767 | 0.280 | 3.00 | 0.23 | 96.83 | 20.4% |
| Hughes | 0.284 | 3.11 | 0.333 | 4.57 | 0.257 | 0.714 | 0.321 | 3.04 | 0.27 | 94.63 | 20.7% |
| Rodriguez | 0.262 | 0.672 | |||||||||
| Lester | 0.328 | 2.61 | 0.280 | 2.66 | 0.276 | 0.758 | 0.305 | 2.91 | 0.24 | 107.35 | 24.4% |
| Haren | 0.302 | 3.53 | 0.313 | 4.08 | 0.242 | 0.694 | 0.270 | 4.25 | 0.246 | 95.87 | 18.4% |
| Sale | 0.219 | 0.23 | 0.277 | 3.15 | 0.240 | 0.700 | 0.292 | 2.74 | 0.215 | 104.47 | 29.3% |
| Martinez | 0.344 | 4.02 | 0.322 | 3.60 | 0.256 | 0.679 | 0.287 | 4.62 | 0.265 | 85.76 | 12.5% |
| Gonzalez | 0.332 | 2.95 | 0.317 | 3.87 | 0.244 | 0.747 | 0.266 | 4.73 | 0.243 | 95.00 | 17.1% |
| McCullers | 0.267 | 6.75 | 0.271 | 0.281 | 0.835 | ||||||
| Bolsinger | 0.341 | 5.23 | 0.315 | 3.00 | 0.284 | 0.772 | 0.335 | 3.88 | 0.28 | 84.46 | 20.3% |
| Bettis | 0.379 | 7.15 | 0.415 | 6.75 | 0.275 | 0.876 | 0.381 | 5.33 | 0.355 | 0.00 | 10.5% |
| Kluber | 0.310 | 2.68 | 0.244 | 2.69 | 0.311 | 0.817 | 0.323 | 2.39 | 0.236 | 102.76 | 28.5% |
| Vargas | 0.305 | 3.31 | 0.322 | 4.10 | 0.226 | 0.638 | 0.297 | 4.01 | 0.266 | 98.06 | 15.7% |
| Gee | 0.329 | 4.39 | 0.310 | 3.55 | 0.244 | 0.694 | 0.276 | 4.41 | 0.251 | 94.78 | 16.3% |
| Shields | 0.321 | 3.17 | 0.312 | 3.49 | 0.235 | 0.653 | 0.297 | 3.81 | 0.253 | 105.64 | 21.3% |
| Karns | 0.273 | 2.90 | 0.301 | 4.78 | 0.227 | 0.624 | 0.210 | 4.72 | 0.187 | 98.20 | 24.0% |
| Santiago | 0.261 | 2.32 | 0.321 | 3.81 | 0.246 | 0.736 | 0.282 | 4.21 | 0.239 | 80.95 | 20.4% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Anibal Sanchez DET (vs. OAK) – The right-hander stands out among the Call crowd for his upside, though his inconsistent track record this season keeps him out of the Raise category for the time being. There is a noticeable gap between Sanchez and the rest of the Call cohort, one wider than the rift between Mike Leake and Dan Haren (who lies a half-dozen spots lower on the ranks).
Mike Leake CIN (at PHI) – There was little doubt that Leake was playing over his head during his magnificent three-start run, but he has since paid for cheating on the gods of regression. It started with the nine-run outburst against the Giants, but Leake’s two turns since that disaster have included 11 earned runs over 9.0 innings, and it could be that a date with the Phillies was just what the doctor ordered to cure his woes … or it could fail to stop his plunge.
Rick Porcello BOS (vs. MIN) – Money brings scrutiny, and the hefty contract handed to Porcello is already looking dubious in the very early going. The Red Sox need an ace in the worst way, and though Porcello is getting paid like a top-of-the-rotation starter, he pitches more like the priciest number-four in the game.
Hector Santiago LAA (at TB) – I can only tip my cap to the Rays offense versus southpaws so many times, so let this be the last warning for awhile. This puts Santiago on the defensive, but he has been shutting down batters throughout the season. He walks too many batters and Santiago’s FIP is more than 1.5 runs higher than his ERA, indicating that his days as a lockdown starter could be very short-lived.
Miguel Gonzalez BAL (at HOU) – He quietly does the same thing year in and year out: 6.0-6.5 strikeouts per nine, a league average walk rate, and more than a homer every nine. The peripherals fail to support an above-average ERA, particularly one that has stayed true to form for the last four years, such that Gonzalez having a FIP that’s a run higher than the ERA is no longer considered an outlier, but the norm.
Nate Karns TB (at LAA)
Lance McCullers HOU (vs. BAL)
Dan Haren MIA (vs. CHC)
Nick Martinez TEX (vs. CHW)
Dillon Gee NYM (at SD)
Mark Buehrle TOR (at WAS)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Mike Bolsinger LAD (at COL)
Jason Vargas KC (vs. CLE)
Trevor May MIN (at BOS)
Chad Bettis COL (vs. LAD)
Taylor Jordan WAS (vs. TOR)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
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