Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, May 13th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-05-15 15:32:19

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Miley	BOS	OAK	201.1	4.34	3.67	1.40	33.3%	21.1%	8.7%	1.03	1.82
Gray	OAK	BOS	219	3.08	3.56	1.19	60.0%	20.4%	8.2%	0.62	2.19
Gonzalez	WAS	ARI	158.2	3.57	3.43	1.20	46.7%	24.8%	8.6%	0.57	1.22
Hellickson	ARI	WAS	63.2	4.52	4.04	1.45		19.2%	7.5%	1.13	0.89
Lackey	STL	CLE	198	3.82	3.64	1.28	57.9%	19.7%	5.6%	1.09	1.31
Kluber	CLE	STL	235.2	2.44	2.61	1.09	57.1%	28.3%	5.4%	0.53	1.57
Sanchez	TOR	BAL	33	1.09	2.53	0.70		22.3%	7.4%	0.27	3.38
Gonzalez	BAL	TOR	159	3.23	4.40	1.30	40.0%	16.5%	7.6%	1.42	0.89
Liriano	PIT	PHI	162.1	3.38	3.61	1.30	12.5%	25.3%	11.7%	0.72	2.03
Hamels	PHI	PIT	204.2	2.46	3.29	1.15	58.8%	23.9%	7.1%	0.62	1.49
Nolasco	MIN	DET	159	5.38	4.06	1.52	16.7%	16.6%	5.5%	1.25	1.16
Lobstein	DET	MIN	39.1	4.35	4.35	1.25		16.5%	8.5%	0.69	1.20
Warren	NYY	TBR	78.2	2.97	3.01	1.11		23.5%	7.4%	0.46	1.46
Karns	TBR	NYY	12	4.50	3.24	0.92		26.5%	8.2%	2.25	1.00
Stults	ATL	CIN	176	4.30	4.33	1.38	26.3%	14.6%	5.9%	1.33	1.22
Iglesias	CIN	ATL
Cosart	MIA	LAD	180.1	3.69	4.36	1.36	31.6%	15.0%	9.5%	0.45	2.05
Frias	LAD	MIA	32.1	6.12	2.99	1.24		21.2%	5.1%	1.11	1.58
Ventura	KCR	TEX	183	3.20	3.87	1.30	44.4%	20.3%	8.8%	0.69	1.53
Gallardo	TEX	KCR	192.1	3.51	3.78	1.29	50.0%	17.9%	6.6%	0.98	1.75
Harvey	NYM	CHC
Hammel	CHC	NYM	176.1	3.47	3.50	1.12	47.4%	22.1%	6.2%	1.17	1.03
Hudson	SFG	HOU	189.1	3.57	3.66	1.23	68.4%	15.2%	4.3%	0.71	2.05
Oberholtzer	HOU	SFG	143.2	4.39	4.27	1.38	41.7%	15.1%	4.5%	0.75	0.87
Quintana	CWS	MIL	200.1	3.32	3.50	1.24	50.0%	21.5%	6.3%	0.45	1.35
Nelson	MIL	CWS	69.1	4.93	3.76	1.46		18.3%	6.1%	0.78	1.52
Lyles	COL	LAA	126.2	4.33	4.10	1.37	58.3%	16.5%	8.4%	0.85	2.01
Santiago	LAA	COL	127.1	3.75	4.38	1.36	16.7%	19.9%	9.7%	1.06	0.61
Shields	SDP	SEA	227	3.21	3.59	1.18	42.9%	19.2%	4.7%	0.91	1.33
Walker	SEA	SDP	38	2.61	3.97	1.29		21.3%	11.3%	0.47	1.78

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Matt Harvey NYM (at CHC) – Harvey has picked up right where he left off, and though pitch command is often the last thing to return for pitchers who have had elbow surgery, the soft indicators point to a miniscule 3.2-percent walk rate that is even lower than his excellent ratios before going under the knife. He only has 7 strikeouts combined in his last two starts, but he could see a K spike today against a Chicago club that leads the National League in batter strikeouts by a significant margin.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

James Shields SD (at SEA) – Shields has an odd line this season, with a strikeout rate that has leapt from the 20-percent dimension where he has lived for the past nine years to a jaw-dropping 30.4 percent in 2015. An easy explanation for such performance could be that he’s enjoying life in the National League, facing pitchers and playing home games underneath the run-suppressing marine layer in San Diego. Problem is that NL batters have teed off on Shields when they have made contact, with a major-league leading 11 homers allowed and a 4.25 ERA, and the quandary is further clouded by his 4-0 record.

Francisco Liriano PIT (vs. PHI) – There’s no telling what shape Liriano’s day will take. He has one game this year in which he walked 6 batters but gave up no runs over 6.3 innings, another with 10 strikeouts against just a single walk that saw 5 runners cross the plate, and his lowest strikeout day came in a contest where he threw eight full frames. Odds are that he will have a strong line against the Phillies, with the chance to be dominant against the game’s weakest offense, but be forewarned that the pin can be pulled on the Liriano grenade at any time.

Cole Hamels PHI (vs. PIT) – Hamels has quieted the alarming homer rate from the start of 2015, coughing up just one homer in his last four starts (covering 26 innings) after serving up six bombs in his first three games. The walks, however, have continued to be a problem. Pitch command has been the most effective weapon at Hamels’ disposal throughout his career, but after averaging just over two walks per nine innings for the past 8 seasons his rate has suddenly doubled this year, with two or more free passes in every start. All of the off-season focus was on the possibility of injury and how that would deflate his trade value, but Hamels’ early-season struggles will also act to depress his marketability, making it even less likely that RAJ receives an offer that’s to his liking.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Miley	0.326	5.32	0.331	4.06	0.206	0.543	0.317	3.98	0.263	97.48	21.1%
Gray	0.289	2.81	0.277	3.40	0.257	0.714	0.277	3.46	0.229	99.85	20.4%
Gonzalez	0.284	3.79	0.293	3.51	0.256	0.695	0.294	3.03	0.226	97.15	24.8%
Hellickson	0.261	3.76	0.423	5.68	0.239	0.669	0.321	4.15	0.275	90.62	19.2%
Lackey	0.316	3.29	0.327	4.38	0.247	0.701	0.305	3.78	0.262	99.29	19.7%
Kluber	0.304	2.53	0.246	2.34	0.279	0.762	0.316	2.35	0.232	102.94	28.3%
Sanchez	0.223	1.54	0.149	0.84	0.281	0.835	0.157	2.80	0.126	19.38	22.3%
Gonzalez	0.340	2.81	0.321	3.72	0.235	0.718	0.273	4.89	0.253	94.52	16.5%
Liriano	0.331	4.20	0.284	3.20	0.281	0.756	0.280	3.59	0.215	93.59	25.3%
Hamels	0.291	2.18	0.285	2.53	0.210	0.626	0.295	3.07	0.231	104.53	23.9%
Nolasco	0.396	5.38	0.355	5.38	0.291	0.803	0.351	4.30	0.311	97.81	16.6%
Lobstein	0.274	2.84	0.301	5.06	0.262	0.672	0.267	3.82	0.233	90.00	16.5%
Warren	0.236	2.21	0.307	3.64	0.235	0.684	0.272	2.89	0.212	19.30	23.5%
Karns					0.228	0.694	0.148	5.72	0.163	102.50	26.5%
Stults	0.342	5.29	0.341	3.93	0.224	0.668	0.296	4.63	0.276	88.53	14.6%
Iglesias					0.255	0.707
Cosart	0.312	3.53	0.293	3.84	0.275	0.876	0.290	3.77	0.251	98.23	15.0%
Frias	0.348	9.22	0.255	3.86	0.261	0.676	0.299	3.60	0.254	0.00	21.2%
Ventura	0.288	2.68	0.316	3.93	0.193	0.559	0.288	3.60	0.237	96.29	20.3%
Gallardo	0.287	2.77	0.328	4.08	0.311	0.817	0.294	3.94	0.257	100.50	17.9%
Harvey					0.242	0.694
Hammel	0.305	3.09	0.297	3.78	0.235	0.653	0.272	3.92	0.232	93.20	22.1%
Hudson	0.331	3.71	0.292	3.41	0.244	0.747	0.300	3.54	0.266	89.81	15.2%
Oberholtzer	0.322	3.78	0.332	4.57	0.254	0.682	0.325	3.56	0.287	93.79	15.1%
Quintana	0.302	4.86	0.290	2.76	0.198	0.488	0.318	2.81	0.254	104.56	21.5%
Nelson	0.353	4.84	0.349	5.03	0.256	0.679	0.344	3.78	0.289	79.21	18.3%
Lyles	0.372	3.39	0.290	5.21	0.227	0.624	0.295	4.22	0.258	95.45	16.5%
Santiago	0.274	2.34	0.326	4.27	0.259	0.726	0.288	4.29	0.246	75.77	19.9%
Shields	0.309	3.02	0.310	3.43	0.234	0.660	0.295	3.59	0.253	106.82	19.2%
Walker	0.333	2.86	0.229	2.25	0.244	0.694	0.282	3.68	0.223	78.13	21.3%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Today features a glut of pitchers with various levels of intrigue, but it is also thin on the extremes. There are very few candidates for All-ins and Raises, so the money will likely be made in the Call group today.

Jose Quintana CHW (at MIL) – The 5.03 ERA is certainly off-putting, but Quintana has K and walk rates that are right in line with his established numbers over the past two seasons. The homer rate is near league average, but the big trouble so far has been with balls in play, with a .353 BABIP this season and an overall line that is still tainted from the 9-run drubbing that he took at the hands of the Tigers on April 19. Since then, Quintana has thrown 17.0 innings across three starts and given up just 4 runs (2.12 ERA), including an 8-strikeout performance over five frames against Detroit in his last turn. The road warrior starts his fifth game on the road in seven tries, drawing a Milwaukee club that has rebounded from their early-season funk just in time for Carlos Gomez and Ryan Braun to show off their southpaw-specific skills.

Yordano Ventura KC (at TEX) – Strikeouts are generally assumed to be part of the profile when a pitcher consistently throws in the upper 90s, but Ventura’s career K rate of 19.7 percent is underwhelming and is down to 17.1 percent this season. He throws extremely hard, but this season’s average of 96.4 mph is down nearly two full ticks from the velo established last year, and his whiff rate on the hard stuff has tumbled from 20.8 percent of swings in 2014 to 12.7 percent this season.

Jimmy Nelson MIL (vs. CHW) – The strikeout rate has exploded, just as Bill James predicted in his 2015 handbook, checking in with just under a K-per-inning, including 11 punchouts in his last turn. Nelson has played home-and-home series’ against each of his fir three opponents, playing consecutive starts against the Pirates, Reds, and Cubs; this time he hops to Chicago’s south side in his second career interleague start. Each time around, Nelson has given up more runs when facing a club the second time, so he could earn some benefit from the novelty value of the White Sox never having stepped in against the right-hander.

Raisel Iglesias CIN (vs. ATL) The stats are underwhelming, whether looking at his first big-league start (3 runs allowed through 5.0 innings against the Cardinals) or his minor-league performance in 2015, with 21.3 innings of a 3.80 ERA and just 11 strikeouts for Triple-A Louisville. Such performance fails to encapsulate the intriguing case of Iglesias, whose delivery is part Aroldis Chapman and part Orlando Hernandez, as the 25-year old intentionally alters his spine-tilt in order to manipulate various arm slots based on pitch type. He draws a soft opponent in his second MLB start, and though his pitch count might be limited (he’s lasted about 75 pitches in four of his five turns this season), Iglesias might just turn a few heads when all is said and done this evening.

Carlos Frias LAD (vs. MIA) – Frias entered the rotation two turns ago, making the jump from the Dodger bullpen to provide innings for their thin starting corps. He has been quite effective so far, giving up 3 runs while striking out 9 batters against 2 walks across 10.3 innings while the Dodgers build his stamina. Frias threw 70 pitches in his first start, 84 pitches in his second, and he is a good bet to crack 90 throws today against the Marlins. His velocity took a slight hit in the rotation, but the six-foot-four right-hander has still averaged an astounding 97 mph on his fastball since the move, and he could have the advantage of surprise against a Miami ballclub that has never faced Frias at the big-league level.

Jason Hammel CHC (vs. NYM) – His game log might be boring but the final tally is anything but. Hammel has given up 3-to-4 runs in 4 of his 6 starts this season, has given up exactly one homer in 5 of 6, and has just one start that stands out on his resume – 8.0 shutout innings against the Pirates on April 27, with 7 strikeouts and no walks. The lack of walks is what stands out, as Hammel gave away just two free passes in his first five turns of the year and has a 35:5 K-to-walk ratio on the season

Miguel Gonzalez BAL (vs. TOR) – Gonzalez is another pitcher who is boring yet effective, with a career ERA of 3.46 yet only 6.4 K/9 in his career. He draws an extremely tough opponent in the Jays, a team that he has somehow avoided thus far in 2015 despite Baltimore having played 8 of their first 31 games against Toronto.

Tim Hudson SF (at HOU) – Hudson and Houston are an interesting match, as a pitcher who relies on weak contact versus a lineup that is hell-bent on True Outcomes, and the result will likely come down to whether the Astros batters can run into one or two pitches to send them out of the yard.

Hector Santiago LAA (vs. COL) – Santiago gets the platoon advantage against a lefty-leaning Colorado offense that has been struggling for the past week and a half as the team has gone into a freefall.

Aaron Sanchez TOR (at BAL) – Sanchez leads the majors with 25 walks allowed this season, a total that actually surpasses his K count in 32.3 innings. The career K-to-walk ratio is now 1.5-to-one, yet his ERA is a mere 2.34, but the Orioles could facilitate the power of regression tonight in Baltimore.

Taijuan Walker SEA (vs. SD) – The right-hander has been completely hit-or-miss this season, and the downside is low enough to sink an entire DFS roster. The Padres are stacked to wreck southpaws, but they might have no problem introducing Walker to their particular style of NL baseball.

Yovani Gallardo TEX (vs. KC)
Adam Warren NYY (at TB)
Nate Karns TB (vs. NYY)
Jarred Cosart MIA (at LAD)

FOLD:

Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.

Jordan Lyles COL (at LAA)
Kyle Lobstein DET (vs. MIN)
Brad Oberholtzer HOU (vs. SF)
Ricky Nolasco MIN (at DET)
Eric Stults ATL (at CIN)

Starting Pitcher Salaries

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window