Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, May 20th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hahn | OAK | HOU | 112 | 3.54 | 3.79 | 1.23 | 57.1% | 20.1% | 8.7% | 0.40 | 2.03 |
| Keuchel | HOU | OAK | 257.2 | 2.69 | 3.16 | 1.13 | 50.0% | 18.3% | 6.4% | 0.42 | 3.40 |
| Elias | SEA | BAL | 188.2 | 3.77 | 3.97 | 1.33 | 26.3% | 20.6% | 9.2% | 0.95 | 1.36 |
| Chen | BAL | SEA | 228.1 | 3.35 | 3.92 | 1.20 | 31.6% | 18.0% | 5.2% | 1.14 | 1.04 |
| Warren | NYY | WAS | 116.2 | 3.47 | 3.57 | 1.20 | 20.5% | 7.9% | 0.54 | 1.47 | |
| Cole | WAS | NYY | |||||||||
| Pelfrey | MIN | PIT | 62.2 | 5.03 | 5.58 | 1.61 | 9.3% | 11.3% | 1.15 | 1.70 | |
| Locke | PIT | MIN | 171.1 | 4.25 | 4.11 | 1.31 | 66.7% | 16.5% | 7.5% | 1.10 | 1.69 |
| Weaver | LAA | TOR | 264 | 3.75 | 4.27 | 1.20 | 52.4% | 17.6% | 6.5% | 1.23 | 0.73 |
| Hutchison | TOR | LAA | 227 | 4.80 | 3.67 | 1.31 | 31.6% | 22.7% | 7.6% | 1.11 | 0.88 |
| Lohse | MIL | DET | 246 | 3.99 | 4.03 | 1.16 | 50.0% | 17.6% | 5.4% | 1.17 | 0.95 |
| Greene | DET | MIL | 125.2 | 3.94 | 3.73 | 1.33 | 100.0% | 20.4% | 7.9% | 0.72 | 1.76 |
| Klein | TEX | BOS | 23.2 | 3.80 | 3.51 | 1.18 | 26.0% | 12.0% | 1.52 | 0.72 | |
| Kelly | BOS | TEX | 136.2 | 4.61 | 4.26 | 1.35 | 40.0% | 17.3% | 10.2% | 0.86 | 2.07 |
| Martinez | STL | NYM | 129.1 | 4.24 | 3.56 | 1.44 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 0.77 | 1.92 | |
| Colon | NYM | STL | 253.2 | 4.04 | 3.67 | 1.19 | 42.1% | 18.3% | 2.9% | 1.06 | 1.00 |
| Odorizzi | TBR | ATL | 221.1 | 3.70 | 3.62 | 1.20 | 36.8% | 23.4% | 7.2% | 0.89 | 0.70 |
| Perez | ATL | TBR | |||||||||
| Anderson | ARI | MIA | 156 | 3.69 | 3.85 | 1.30 | 40.0% | 21.0% | 8.0% | 1.04 | 1.14 |
| Phelps | MIA | ARI | 150 | 3.96 | 4.22 | 1.39 | 42.9% | 18.3% | 8.7% | 0.78 | 1.19 |
| Marquis | CIN | KCR | 38 | 6.63 | 4.08 | 1.63 | 18.7% | 7.0% | 2.13 | 1.28 | |
| Guthrie | KCR | CIN | 244 | 4.35 | 4.51 | 1.33 | 42.1% | 13.3% | 5.8% | 1.03 | 1.19 |
| Marcum | CLE | CWS | |||||||||
| Rodon | CWS | CLE | 16.1 | 4.96 | 5.18 | 1.96 | 21.3% | 17.5% | 0.55 | 1.06 | |
| Gonzalez | PHI | COL | |||||||||
| Butler | COL | PHI | 50 | 5.04 | 5.62 | 1.84 | 9.8% | 12.8% | 0.90 | 2.07 | |
| Wada | CHC | SDP | 69.1 | 3.25 | 3.89 | 1.24 | 19.7% | 6.6% | 0.91 | 0.87 | |
| Ross | SDP | CHC | 241.1 | 3.02 | 3.27 | 1.27 | 66.7% | 24.5% | 9.7% | 0.60 | 2.69 |
| Anderson | LAD | SFG | 79.1 | 3.18 | 3.40 | 1.32 | 20.0% | 16.2% | 5.8% | 0.45 | 2.93 |
| Lincecum | SFG | LAD | 196.1 | 4.26 | 4.04 | 1.38 | 40.0% | 19.8% | 9.8% | 0.92 | 1.64 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
That’s two full-slate days in a row with no pitchers that I would deem worthy of All-In status. Today is even thinner than yesterday at the top end of the pitcher pool, with just three pitchers falling into the Raise category. It’s a good day to roll the dice, cover your eyes and plug your ears.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Jake Odorizzi TB (at ATL) – Odorizzi’s perch at the top of the rankings comes via a combination of his consistency, his opponent, and the weak slate of arms that are on the docket for today. He’s given up one or zero runs in 5 of his 8 starts this season and has yet to surrender more than four tallies in a ballgame, resulting in a 2.36 ERA for the campaign. He has average velocity but a solid K rate, with a career 22.5-percent frequency of punchouts, and Odorizzi hasn’t walked a batter since April 23. He has only given up two homers this season, coughing one apiece in each of his last couple of turns, and that rate should remain low against a Braves club that is one of the bottom four teams in baseball with respect to homers.
Tyson Ross SD (vs. CHC) – His K-rate is on a four-year run of increasing frequency, climbing to 26.3 percent this season, and the whiffs ought to continue against the highest strikeout team in the game. The issue is that Ross’ other numbers are up as well, from a career-high walk rate of 12.7 percent to a 5.6-percent rate of extra-base hits that’s his highest since becoming a Padre. The Cubs excel in True Outcomes, so there is a good chance that today’s game will feature another pile of K’s and walks, leading to yet another short outing from a right-hander who has averaged just 5.7 innings per start this season.
Jordan Zimmermann WAS (vs. NYY) – If Zimm had shown up to the 2015 season with all of last year’s skills intact, then he would register as the only All-in candidate of the day. But Zimm has been off his game, from down velocity to wrinkled pitch command, and fears that he would revert back to the modest K rate of previous seasons have been realized and magnified as the right-hander has zoomed right past his career norms and into the sub-6.0 realm of K’s per 9 innings.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hahn | 0.308 | 4.71 | 0.266 | 2.30 | 0.244 | 0.747 | 0.284 | 3.33 | 0.229 | 86.71 | 20.1% |
| Keuchel | 0.253 | 2.39 | 0.284 | 2.78 | 0.206 | 0.543 | 0.280 | 3.13 | 0.234 | 104.27 | 18.3% |
| Elias | 0.301 | 2.98 | 0.330 | 4.00 | 0.306 | 0.798 | 0.297 | 4.13 | 0.249 | 92.58 | 20.6% |
| Chen | 0.294 | 2.82 | 0.320 | 3.52 | 0.251 | 0.735 | 0.283 | 4.02 | 0.253 | 96.24 | 18.0% |
| Warren | 0.254 | 3.06 | 0.316 | 3.82 | 0.239 | 0.669 | 0.283 | 3.30 | 0.231 | 25.99 | 20.5% |
| Cole | 0.524 | 9.00 | 0.177 | 6.00 | 0.228 | 0.694 | |||||
| Pelfrey | 0.288 | 3.44 | 0.435 | 7.27 | 0.234 | 0.642 | 0.279 | 5.90 | 0.272 | 0.00 | 9.3% |
| Locke | 0.281 | 3.82 | 0.337 | 4.38 | 0.262 | 0.672 | 0.288 | 4.37 | 0.259 | 93.86 | 16.5% |
| Weaver | 0.328 | 3.98 | 0.277 | 3.41 | 0.235 | 0.718 | 0.267 | 4.33 | 0.242 | 97.48 | 17.6% |
| Hutchison | 0.344 | 5.63 | 0.298 | 3.73 | 0.227 | 0.624 | 0.303 | 3.89 | 0.249 | 95.00 | 22.7% |
| Lohse | 0.315 | 3.88 | 0.302 | 4.08 | 0.291 | 0.803 | 0.267 | 4.16 | 0.242 | 97.15 | 17.6% |
| Greene | 0.364 | 4.75 | 0.262 | 3.18 | 0.232 | 0.650 | 0.315 | 3.66 | 0.258 | 87.17 | 20.4% |
| Klein | 0.509 | 9.00 | 0.160 | 1.62 | 0.257 | 0.714 | 0.214 | 4.91 | 0.186 | 17.70 | 26.0% |
| Kelly | 0.292 | 3.58 | 0.328 | 5.80 | 0.193 | 0.559 | 0.272 | 4.37 | 0.237 | 94.96 | 17.3% |
| Martinez | 0.370 | 5.30 | 0.287 | 3.44 | 0.235 | 0.653 | 0.329 | 3.67 | 0.26 | 31.77 | 22.7% |
| Colon | 0.297 | 3.85 | 0.328 | 4.25 | 0.279 | 0.762 | 0.302 | 3.58 | 0.265 | 94.82 | 18.3% |
| Odorizzi | 0.288 | 3.73 | 0.306 | 3.67 | 0.255 | 0.707 | 0.287 | 3.45 | 0.232 | 98.03 | 23.4% |
| Perez | 0.743 | 54.00 | 0.406 | 0.235 | 0.684 | ||||||
| Anderson | 0.319 | 3.93 | 0.330 | 3.48 | 0.261 | 0.676 | 0.302 | 3.96 | 0.253 | 91.71 | 21.0% |
| Phelps | 0.309 | 3.71 | 0.330 | 4.23 | 0.256 | 0.693 | 0.303 | 3.96 | 0.257 | 62.88 | 18.3% |
| Marquis | 0.314 | 3.74 | 0.503 | 10.47 | 0.311 | 0.817 | 0.350 | 5.57 | 0.316 | 0.00 | 18.7% |
| Guthrie | 0.370 | 5.51 | 0.281 | 3.05 | 0.224 | 0.691 | 0.297 | 4.43 | 0.274 | 99.28 | 13.3% |
| Marcum | 0.000 | 0.00 | 0.308 | 1.93 | 0.256 | 0.679 | |||||
| Rodon | 0.441 | 16.62 | 0.327 | 0.75 | 0.226 | 0.638 | 0.354 | 4.44 | 0.273 | 66.40 | 21.3% |
| Gonzalez | 0.639 | 9.00 | 0.333 | 11.12 | 0.284 | 0.772 | |||||
| Butler | 0.457 | 6.55 | 0.342 | 3.86 | 0.207 | 0.567 | 0.329 | 5.56 | 0.308 | 0.00 | 9.8% |
| Wada | 0.204 | 0.64 | 0.348 | 3.90 | 0.309 | 0.801 | 0.296 | 3.75 | 0.251 | 88.15 | 19.7% |
| Ross | 0.303 | 3.09 | 0.285 | 2.96 | 0.242 | 0.694 | 0.300 | 3.28 | 0.23 | 100.08 | 24.5% |
| Anderson | 0.340 | 5.09 | 0.300 | 2.40 | 0.254 | 0.682 | 0.327 | 3.22 | 0.279 | 80.87 | 16.2% |
| Lincecum | 0.311 | 3.99 | 0.346 | 4.51 | 0.275 | 0.876 | 0.297 | 4.11 | 0.25 | 83.05 | 19.8% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Carlos Martinez STL (at NYM) – Well, at least he keeps it interesting. Martinez has given up 2 runs or fewer across five or more innings in 5 of his 7 starts this season, but the 2 outliers were back-to-back beatings of 7 earnies apiece. He followed up those two disasters with 8 K’s, 2 walks, and 2 runs allowed against the powerful Tigers in his last start. It was the third time that the right-hander had racked up exactly 8 strikeouts in a ballgame this year and he has the upside for double digits, but his quest for the K combines with questionable pitch command to open the vault of volatility for his expected performance.
Bartolo Colon NYM (vs. STL) – After five years of defying expectations with his boulder-solid performance, Colon once again threw the fantasy world for a loop with his six-run stinker against the Brewers in his last start, giving Colon a two-start run with 15 hits and 10 runs allowed in 11 full innings. Walks are obviously not an issue – Colon has only walked one batter this season and it was back in his first start of the year – but his pitch-to-contact approach could be exploited for a big day by Cardinal hitters.
Carlos Rodon CHW (vs. CLE) – After acing his first exam of the year, Rodon’s studying didn’t quite pay off against the A’s in his second start of the 2015 season. His first two starts have included 11 walks in 10.0 frames, and the lack of pitch command confirms the weaknesses in his scouting report. Rodon is facing the Indians today, an offense that loses much of its luster with a southpaw on the mound, and the risk of a negative-point outing is counterbalanced by high-strikeout upside and a low price point when considering Rodon for a DFS roster.
Brett Anderson LAD (at SF) – There hasn’t been much to write home about with Anderson’s season, disappointing the chasers of his theoretical upside in the fantasy realm. He has been quietly consistent, however, walking just six hitters in 36.0 innings this season and keeping opponents under four earned runs in 6 of 7 starts this season. Anderson is facing a recharged Giants squad that has restocked with Hunter Pence back in the lineup, Brandon Belt absolutely mashing, and franchise foundation Buster Posey being particularly fond of hitting lefties (career line of .328/.389/.570 in 738 plate appearances against southpaws).
Wei-Yin Chen BAL (vs. SEA) – His pedestrian rate of 6.9 punchouts-per-nine is decidedly unsexy, and Chen often pays the price on contact in the form of deep flies, but his ability to command the strike zone and keep walkers off the bases allows him to minimize the damage of those blasts. His southpaw advantage will work wonders against infielders Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager, but Nelson Cruz (aka the biggest threat in the Mariner lineup) will be undeterred.
Tim Lincecum SF (vs. LAD) – Lincecum is having a resurgent season in the Giants’ rotation, shaking off a continual decline in velocity and riding his split-change to a 2.43 ERA and merely one homer allowed in seven starts so far this season, but one number is expected to rise along with the other with regression coming in the very near future. He could be entering a new phase of his tumultuous career, or it could just be a fluke with further inconsistency just around the corner. Me? I’ll be over here waiting for the other shoe to drop.
Drew Hutchison TOR (vs. LAA) – The Angels’ lineup is surprisingly weak beyond Mike Trout, especially with Albert Pujols sporting a woeful .286 OBP through the first six-and-a-half weeks of the season. The K rate that put him on the map is alive and well this season, but so is the uncharacteristically high ERA, as batters have ripped him to the tune of a .341 BABIP and an unsightly 6.38 ERA, and pessimism is fueled by the fact that his high ERA’s of previous seasons were accompanied by league average BABIP’s.
Chase Anderson ARI (at MIA) – Anderson’s game is predicated on command of the strike zone, with league-average velocity and a fastball that gets hit hard when he catches too much of the plate. He’s enjoyed a great run to start the season and May has been especially kind, with just two combined runs allowed in his last three starts, today he gets a Miami club that is struggling to hit for power outside of the superhuman Giancarlo Stanton.
David Phelps MIA (vs. ARI) – He has been incredibly effective since being moved to the rotation in mid-April, with a 1.75 ERA in his six starts this season and his last turn was the best of the bunch: 8 strikeouts and no walks across six frames against the Braves, though nine hits led to three runs on the scoreboard. He has yet to allow a homer in 37.3 innings this season, and in fact all of his true outcomes are down with the lowest walk and strikeout rates of his career thus far, so the magnets of regression could pull his stats north today.
Jered Weaver LAA (at TOR) – Weaver has fallen into a category where his matchup plays a heavy role in determining his status with each start, as his flyballing ways and Zito-inspired velocity can be particularly exploited by certain teams and ballparks. Enter the Blue Jays, the top scoring team in the bigs at 5.17 runs per game and with 45 bombs that rank Toronto in the upper quartile of the league. Weaver has notorious home/road splits and traditionally one of the higher flyball rates in baseball, so Toronto could enjoy exploiting a home environment that is particularly conducive to the big fly.
Tsuyoshi Wada CHC (at SD) – Wada’s penchant for run prevention has been well established but he is facing a Padre lineup that is stacked to the gills with big hitters who specialize in mauling left-handers.
Jeff Locke PIT (vs. MIN) – Locke been consistently below-average throughout his career, as personified by a FIP that has sat between 4.03 and 4.43 for each of the last four seasons. He started the 2015 campaign with a pair of strong starts, but since then he has thrown 26 innings of 7.27 ERA baseball. Today he faces a Minnesota lineup whose number-three hitter is a left-handed bat with minimal power, but Brian Dozier could enjoy a big day against the southpaw.
Shane Greene DET (vs. MIL)
Joe Kelly BOS (vs. TEX)
Adam Warren NYY (at WAS)
Shaun Marcum CLE (at CHW)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Mike Pelfrey MIN (at PIT)
Jeremy Guthrie KC (vs. CIN)
Eddie Butler COL (vs. PHI)
Kyle Lohse MIL (at DET)
Roenis Elias SEA (at BAL)
Jason Marquis CIN (at KC)
Williams Perez ATL (vs. TB)
Phil Klein TEX (at BOS)
Severino Gonzalez PHI (at COL)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
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