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Daily Starting Pitcher Breakdown 9/22

by PSporer Last Updated 2014-09-23 21:27:09

The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher TM OPP IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Duffy KCR CLE 141.1 2.42 4.27 1.08 57.1% 19.0% 8.8% 0.64 0.77
Carrasco CLE KCR 119 2.65 2.62 0.98 25.8% 5.3% 0.53 1.87
Chen BAL NYY 173.2 3.58 3.82 1.23 31.6% 17.9% 4.4% 1.19 1.06
Pineda NYY BAL 62.2 2.15 3.84 0.93 75.0% 16.8% 2.5% 0.72 0.89
Paxton SEA TOR 65.2 2.06 3.38 1.05 50.0% 20.9% 7.8% 0.41 2.48
Happ TOR SEA 144.2 4.35 3.95 1.36 30.8% 20.0% 7.7% 1.24 0.96
Bassitt CWS DET 17 5.29 5.15 1.82 15.9% 13.4% 0.00 1.22
Lobstein DET CWS 27.2 3.58 4.48 1.23 15.7% 9.6% 0.65 1.43
Liriano PIT ATL 151.1 3.45 3.52 1.28 12.5% 25.4% 11.2% 0.77 2.06
Harang ATL PIT 190.2 3.68 4.20 1.42 75.0% 18.1% 8.2% 0.61 1.08
Wainwright STL CHC 220 2.45 3.56 1.05 84.2% 19.6% 5.6% 0.41 1.58
Wood CHC STL 168.2 4.86 4.48 1.52 30.0% 18.3% 9.8% 1.07 0.81
Tropeano HOU TEX
Holland TEX HOU 27.1 0.99 3.33 0.99 21.0% 2.9% 0.00 0.97
Collmenter ARI MIN 165 3.60 4.20 1.17 29.4% 16.0% 5.7% 0.98 0.99
Nolasco MIN ARI 148.1 5.34 4.12 1.51 16.7% 16.1% 5.4% 1.21 1.14
Wilson LAA OAK 169 4.42 4.10 1.43 42.1% 20.4% 10.7% 0.91 1.59
Samardzija OAK LAA 205.2 2.98 3.10 1.07 60.0% 23.0% 5.2% 0.79 1.66
Matzek COL SDP 111.2 4.19 4.14 1.41 25.0% 17.4% 8.6% 0.73 1.62
Stults SDP COL 162.2 4.59 4.42 1.40 26.3% 14.2% 6.2% 1.44 1.19
Peavy SFG LAD 190.2 3.82 4.06 1.30 42.1% 18.9% 7.4% 1.04 0.94
Haren LAD SFG 174 4.14 3.80 1.22 30.0% 18.4% 4.9% 1.34 1.10

p.

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

*If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking
against him, either.*

PLATINUM BUYS:

These are aces who don’t really need much explanation at all. They’re expensive, but awesome. If an
ace-level arm is struggling a bit or has a tough matchup, he might fall into the gold or silver tiers, but
otherwise you’re going to find the Kershaws, Hernandez, and Sales of the world in here.

Adam Wainwright STL (at CHC)
Jeff Samardzija OAK (v. LAA)
Carlos Carrasco CLE (v. KC) – Since rejoining the rotation: 1.17 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 59 Ks, and an 8.4 K:BB
ratio.

GOLD BUYS:

These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive
studs in here with great matchups.

Francisco Liriano PIT (at ATL) – Lefties obliterated Liriano early this year with a .923 OPS against them
through his first 14 starts. He missed a month due to injury right after that 14th start and he apparently
used that time to get right. He has a 2.39 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 13 starts since returning with 86 Ks in 79
IP and a key component to that surge is the fact that lefties have just a .542 OPS against him during this
time. His stuff is back, particularly the slider, and he’s finishing with an impressive flourish (0.82 ERA in
his last five).

Derek Holland TEX (v. HOU) – You always have to worry about a guy returning from a huge layoff due
to injury, but Holland’s risk factor was lower than most because it wasn’t an arm injury. The left knee is
showing no ill signs through four starts as he’s allowed just 3 ER in his 27.3 IP of work with 22 Ks and just
three walks (all in his last outing). He’s made it into the seventh inning of all four starts, fanning at least
five each time out. He should be able to set a season-high in strikeouts (currently six) here, too.

James Paxton SEA (at TOR) – I really wish we could’ve seen a full season from Paxton, but he spent
four months on the shelf so he has just 65.7 IP so far this year. They’ve been really good innings, though,
as he’s yet to allow more than 3 ER in a start. He has essentially traded strikeouts for better control in
comparison to his minor league record, but it’s a worthy trade, especially since he can still miss plenty of
bats when he’s on. He’s had back-to-back 8 K games, in fact. Toronto struggles against lefties,
particularly at home with a .654 OPS on the season, good for 28th in the league.

SILVER BUYS:

On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they
can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more
risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not
overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces
you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.

Jake Peavy SF (at LAD) – He was a little shaky in his first three starts with the Giants, but he has been
filthy in his last seven, allowing no more than 2 ER en route to a 1.13 ERA with a 0.96 WHIP and 4.9 K:BB
ratio in 48 IP. He’s showing that there is still plenty left in the tank. He just needs to stay in the NL and
ideally in a favorable ballpark.

Wei-Yin Chen BAL (at NYY) – This is more of a high-floor option than anything else and while that isn’t
exactly fun to invest in, it has usefulness. Chen has a 2.88 ERA in his last 13 starts. He hasn’t allowed
more than 4 ER in any of those starts and he’s only allowed 4 ER twice. The strikeouts can be good,
but they are completely inconsistent. He has four starts of 7+ Ks, but also four of 2 or fewer. If your SP1
is a gamble (which is likely as those gold tier options don’t have the deepest track records this year),
then you can get a modicum of certainty by investing in Chen.

Tyler Matzek COL (at SD) – The former blue-chip prospect is putting together a huge finish with a 1.96
ERA in his last six starts, which includes three home starts and a mix of talent in the opposition. Walks
remain his biggest issue and they can sink him at any given moment, but it’s hard not to love this venue
and matchup for him. He’s fanned fewer than five just once in his last seven, including three of 7+ Ks.

VALUE PLAYS:

These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very
cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.

Danny Duffy KC (at CLE) – He’s thrown all of a pitch in September, but he appears ready to go or I
can’t imagine KC would even start him given how incredibly important this week of games is for them.
He has owned Cleveland this year, allowing just 1 ER (2 runs total) in 13.7 IP across two starts, both
coming in the second half. They’ve struggled with lefties all season so this is a good landing spot for
Duffy after missing all of that time.

C.J. Wilson LAA (at OAK) – Wilson was brilliant his last time out with seven one-hit innings that
included seven strikeouts and just four total base runners. He’s actually on a bit of a hot streak lately. He
only has one bad start in his last eight, which oddly enough came against Houston, but he’s got a 3.35
ERA during the run. The 5 ER against Houston is the only time he’s allowed more than 3 ER during the
stretch. This stretch includes two starts OAK during which he yielded just four runs in 12 IP.

J.A. Happ TOR (v. SEA) – Despite a rather tough home park, Happ has done his best work in Rogers
Centre with a 3.23 ERA, 8.8 K9, and 3.8 K:BB ratio in 78 IP compared to 5.67, 6.5, and 1.7 on the road in
66.7 IP. The Mariners have the AL’s worst OPS against lefties at .641, ahead of only the Mets and Padres.

Dan Haren LAD (v. SF) – Are you feeling lucky? He’s just been so wildly inconsistent all year. Getting
shelled in Coors is understandable, but a 6 ER outing against CHC or 2 HR effort against KC (worst HR
team in MLB) is just weird. He was pounded for 8 ER in Coors on July 5th and then 5 ER on September
16th (his last time out), but he had a passable 3.88 ERA in the 11 starts in between with 52 Ks and a 3.3
K:BB ratio in 60.3 IP.

STAYAWAYS:

These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are
often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher wOBA vs L ERA vs L wOBA vs R ERA vs R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Duffy 0.170 1.56 0.292 2.70 0.250 0.669 0.232 3.69 0.198 78.28 19.0%
Carrasco 0.240 2.51 0.256 2.77 0.259 0.678 0.272 2.56 0.209 46.13 25.8%
Chen 0.307 3.43 0.327 3.62 0.258 0.707 0.297 3.97 0.265 96.66 17.9%
Pineda 0.259 1.51 0.257 3.00 0.260 0.738 0.245 3.14 0.218 85.91 16.8%
Paxton 0.262 0.79 0.248 2.32 0.247 0.696 0.254 2.99 0.206 92.55 20.9%
Happ 0.368 5.08 0.333 4.18 0.243 0.642 0.303 4.25 0.261 89.93 20.0%
Bassitt 0.336 3.48 0.275 0.750 0.357 3.89 0.29 81.75 15.9%
Lobstein 0.261 2.38 0.311 4.41 0.257 0.715 0.250 3.96 0.221 91.80 15.7%
Liriano 0.326 4.30 0.285 3.25 0.260 0.719 0.279 3.60 0.215 93.22 25.4%
Harang 0.335 2.94 0.308 4.29 0.262 0.750 0.321 3.52 0.269 102.35 18.1%
Wainwright 0.281 2.37 0.247 2.52 0.234 0.671 0.269 2.93 0.222 101.68 19.6%
Wood 0.275 3.72 0.369 5.28 0.252 0.718 0.313 4.47 0.27 97.93 18.3%
Tropeano 0.250 0.665
Holland 0.234 0.268 0.753 0.300 1.85 0.235 105.75 21.0%
Collmenter 0.336 3.29 0.275 3.89 0.252 0.721 0.273 3.99 0.247 81.35 16.0%
Nolasco 0.398 5.47 0.353 5.21 0.248 0.677 0.350 4.29 0.311 98.24 16.1%
Wilson 0.261 4.03 0.344 4.56 0.236 0.682 0.307 4.23 0.254 103.03 20.4%
Samardzija 0.295 2.63 0.276 3.28 0.257 0.724 0.283 3.19 0.23 101.23 23.0%
Matzek 0.206 2.37 0.377 4.87 0.219 0.613 0.313 3.87 0.267 88.16 17.4%
Stults 0.348 5.61 0.349 4.22 0.274 0.789 0.295 4.85 0.278 88.07 14.2%
Peavy 0.343 4.57 0.317 3.15 0.271 0.744 0.295 4.08 0.256 101.60 18.9%
Haren 0.290 3.45 0.346 4.85 0.254 0.697 0.282 4.18 0.254 97.27 18.4%

Starting Pitcher Salaries

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

daily pitcher chart 2

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About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.