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Daily Starting Pitcher Breakdown Sept. 10th

by PSporer Last Updated 2014-09-10 23:05:30

The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher TM OPP IP ERA SIERA WHIP GEM% K% BB% HR/9 G/F
Chen BAL BOS 161 3.69 3.85 1.25 31.6% 17.7% 4.6% 1.23 1.12
Workman BOS BAL 79 4.90 4.28 1.33 25.0% 18.2% 8.9% 1.14 1.04
Harang ATL WAS 176.2 3.87 4.36 1.45 75.0% 17.2% 8.5% 0.61 1.10
Strasburg WAS ATL 189 3.43 2.71 1.17 52.4% 27.8% 5.2% 1.05 1.36
Worley PIT PHI 91.1 3.05 3.76 1.26 40.0% 17.2% 5.2% 0.89 1.58
Williams PHI PIT 89.1 5.34 4.16 1.50 15.7% 7.9% 0.91 1.41
Gibson MIN CLE 156 4.27 4.20 1.29 52.6% 13.7% 7.5% 0.52 2.11
House CLE MIN 85 3.71 3.14 1.40 25.0% 17.8% 5.8% 0.95 3.32
Odorizzi TBR NYY 154.2 3.84 3.49 1.23 36.8% 25.4% 8.0% 0.99 0.63
Capuano NYY TBR 78.2 4.46 3.55 1.40 20.6% 6.9% 1.14 1.30
Hendricks CHC TOR 62.1 2.02 4.16 1.06 13.7% 4.8% 0.43 1.53
Hutchison TOR CHC 163 4.47 3.83 1.27 31.6% 21.5% 7.6% 0.99 0.81
Shields KCR DET 200.1 3.23 3.66 1.20 42.9% 18.7% 4.8% 0.94 1.33
Porcello DET KCR 183 3.30 3.90 1.19 55.6% 14.8% 4.6% 0.74 1.74
Matzek COL NYM 100 4.32 4.24 1.37 25.0% 16.5% 8.5% 0.81 1.62
Montero NYM COL 32.2 5.23 4.55 1.53 25.0% 19.3% 11.0% 2.20 0.71
Lackey STL CIN 181.2 3.91 3.60 1.28 57.9% 19.6% 5.4% 1.14 1.40
Simon CIN STL 171.1 3.52 4.13 1.21 63.2% 15.6% 6.7% 1.10 1.60
Shoemaker LAA TEX 121.2 3.25 3.14 1.10 44.4% 23.8% 4.9% 1.04 1.04
Tepesch TEX LAA 104 4.41 5.04 1.33 27.3% 11.0% 7.8% 1.13 1.21
Cosart MIA MIL 157 3.78 4.33 1.34 31.6% 14.7% 8.9% 0.46 2.01
Peralta MIL MIA 171 3.84 3.78 1.35 47.4% 17.6% 7.2% 1.16 2.05
Samardzija OAK CWS 190.2 3.21 3.19 1.10 60.0% 22.5% 5.3% 0.85 1.61
Bassitt CWS OAK
Kennedy SDP LAD 175.1 3.75 3.45 1.31 47.6% 24.8% 8.4% 0.67 1.06
Haren LAD SDP 162 4.22 3.85 1.25 30.0% 18.1% 5.0% 1.39 1.09
Tropeano HOU SEA
Iwakuma SEA HOU 160.2 2.97 2.94 0.99 60.0% 21.2% 2.2% 0.95 1.74
Collmenter ARI SFG 151 3.81 4.14 1.20 29.4% 16.8% 5.9% 1.01 0.95
Vogelsong SFG ARI 162 4.06 3.93 1.27 52.6% 19.4% 6.7% 0.94 0.94

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.

*If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking
against him, either.*

PLATINUM BUYS:

These are aces who don’t really need much explanation at all. They’re expensive, but awesome. If an
ace-level arm is struggling a bit or has a tough matchup, he might fall into the gold or silver tiers, but
otherwise you’re going to find the Kershaws, Hernandez, and Sales of the world in here.

Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (v. HOU)
Matt Shoemaker LAA (at TEX)
Jeff Samardzija OAK (at CWS) – His Ks are back lately. Since that ugly 7 ER effort against the Mets on
August 20th, he’s posted a 2.74 ERA in three starts with 28 Ks in the 23 IP.

GOLD BUYS:

These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive
studs in here with great matchups.

Jake Odorizzi TB (at NYY) –
John Lackey STL (v. CIN) –

SILVER BUYS:

On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they
can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more
risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not
overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces
you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.

James Shields KC (at DET) – He’s been pitching on the gold level for a while with a 2.26 ERA over his
last 12 starts, but this is a really tough matchup so it’s tough to give him that kind of trust level.
Additionally, he’s only had a 6.9 K9 during that run so he hasn’t been excellent across-the-board. He’s
still shown that the hits can pile up and deliver a dud outing. He has three outings of 10+ hits and five of
5+ ER, including one of each to Detroit (well, it was the same game but it fits both categories).

Tyler Matzek COL (at NYM) – Matzek has quietly strung together four straight strong starts, getting
better in each one, and culminating with a shutout at home (albeit against SD). He’s got 22 Ks in the 29.7
IP and he’s even won three of the decisions.

Rick Porcello DET (v. KC) – He’s had some clunkers in his recent work, but he also has a shutout and an
eight-inning gem with the same time period (4.13 ERA in his last five including 43 hits in 32.7 IP). The KC
offense is back in the tank again. Their .646 OPS against righties since August 1st is 25th in the league and
it’s at .599 over the last two weeks (28th). Porcello has a pair of seven-inning gems against them already
this year, including one on July 12th

VALUE PLAYS:

These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very
cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.

Drew Hutchison TOR (v. CHC) – Hutchison has done something we discussed in this space a couple
times this year, his home ERA has regressed from a sky-high rate and his road ERA has evened out a bit
(after starting out brilliantly). He still has that blowup potential that makes him scary, but when he’s on,
he’s worth twice his price. To get an idea of the volatility, check out his recent ER totals: 1, 6, 7, 1, 0, and
3. The strikeouts have been really strong of late, too, with 70 in his last 70.7 IP.

Jarred Cosart MIA (at MIL) – Cosart is back to his risky, but productive ways. He’s got some great
results of late, but the component numbers aren’t that strong. It’s not quite like last year when was
toting a sub-1.0 K:BB ratio. He has a 1.27 ERA in his last five starts and while it comes with just a 5.1 K9,
he does have a useful 3.3 K:BB ratio in 35.3 IP. Milwaukee is far from their best right now.

STAYAWAYS:

These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are
often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher wOBA vs L ERA vs L wOBA vs R ERA vs R AVG OPS BABIP FIP AVG-A Pit/G Strk%
Chen 0.310 3.57 0.332 3.73 0.245 0.699 0.298 4.06 0.267 96.44 17.7%
Workman 0.326 4.24 0.313 5.85 0.260 0.735 0.278 4.41 0.246 74.82 18.2%
Harang 0.352 3.27 0.307 4.33 0.245 0.706 0.323 3.64 0.274 102.55 17.2%
Strasburg 0.290 3.00 0.314 3.79 0.241 0.664 0.323 3.06 0.248 97.97 27.8%
Worley 0.323 2.88 0.302 3.20 0.243 0.666 0.302 3.72 0.264 88.67 17.2%
Williams 0.375 5.91 0.307 4.74 0.259 0.741 0.325 4.22 0.286 44.12 15.7%
Gibson 0.310 4.10 0.288 4.46 0.256 0.734 0.283 3.70 0.252 90.96 13.7%
House 0.271 4.05 0.373 3.55 0.257 0.707 0.336 3.89 0.289 83.94 17.8%
Odorizzi 0.288 3.76 0.311 3.93 0.245 0.688 0.294 3.50 0.232 98.36 25.4%
Capuano 0.430 8.37 0.298 2.78 0.251 0.699 0.318 4.02 0.268 36.86 20.6%
Hendricks 0.253 1.88 0.271 2.14 0.265 0.760 0.260 3.38 0.232 89.10 13.7%
Hutchison 0.349 5.79 0.274 2.91 0.234 0.672 0.291 3.84 0.243 95.21 21.5%
Shields 0.317 3.01 0.315 3.51 0.273 0.746 0.298 3.70 0.257 107.20 18.7%
Porcello 0.310 3.16 0.294 3.47 0.259 0.680 0.290 3.60 0.26 96.00 14.8%
Matzek 0.231 2.73 0.365 4.89 0.239 0.651 0.300 4.07 0.262 87.82 16.5%
Montero 0.394 5.89 0.351 4.40 0.276 0.763 0.280 6.07 0.264 89.00 19.3%
Lackey 0.318 3.48 0.330 4.40 0.240 0.663 0.305 3.82 0.264 101.50 19.6%
Simon 0.314 4.06 0.296 3.00 0.254 0.687 0.262 4.45 0.241 93.89 15.6%
Shoemaker 0.318 3.84 0.275 2.67 0.250 0.668 0.288 3.39 0.237 76.52 23.8%
Tepesch 0.322 4.84 0.360 3.80 0.254 0.709 0.269 4.95 0.261 86.89 11.0%
Cosart 0.323 3.62 0.272 3.94 0.258 0.722 0.288 3.73 0.25 98.77 14.7%
Peralta 0.369 5.64 0.286 2.15 0.249 0.700 0.298 4.34 0.264 99.57 17.6%
Samardzija 0.296 2.77 0.284 3.61 0.255 0.719 0.282 3.33 0.232 100.28 22.5%
Bassitt 0.250 0.718
Kennedy 0.306 3.53 0.317 3.92 0.266 0.730 0.322 3.12 0.247 103.28 24.8%
Haren 0.295 3.51 0.350 4.95 0.228 0.637 0.286 4.27 0.259 97.68 18.1%
Tropeano 0.247 0.697
Iwakuma 0.304 3.06 0.235 2.87 0.230 0.675 0.279 3.16 0.238 92.71 21.2%
Collmenter 0.346 3.53 0.274 4.07 0.256 0.704 0.279 3.96 0.251 80.31 16.8%
Vogelsong 0.349 4.20 0.308 3.93 0.249 0.681 0.299 3.87 0.254 95.39 19.4%

Starting Pitcher Salaries

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

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NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window

About the Author

PSporer
PSporer

Paul has been writing about baseball for 15 years at various internet outlets and he’s been an avid fantasy baseballer for 21 of his 33 years on this planet, joining his first league at 12 years old which is still running today. He writes a comprehensive starting pitcher guide each year and it’s now available thespguide.com. When’s he’s not watching baseball, he is sleeping, because why would anyone waste time being awake if they weren’t going to watch baseball? He writes three times a week and has his own podcast at Fangraphs with co-hosts Eno Sarris & Jason Collette, contributes to Rotowire, and he has been a guest co-host with Matthew Berry on ESPN’s Fantasy Focus podcast.