Daily Starting Pitcher Breakdown Sept. 11th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nolasco | MIN | CLE | 133.1 | 5.87 | 4.20 | 1.59 | 16.7% | 15.9% | 5.7% | 1.28 | 1.13 |
| Kluber | CLE | MIN | 204.1 | 2.47 | 2.76 | 1.10 | 57.1% | 27.0% | 5.6% | 0.62 | 1.60 |
| Lynn | STL | CIN | 176.2 | 2.80 | 3.96 | 1.31 | 60.0% | 20.5% | 8.8% | 0.41 | 1.23 |
| Cueto | CIN | STL | 214 | 2.23 | 3.17 | 0.98 | 76.2% | 25.1% | 6.8% | 0.84 | 1.34 |
| Kazmir | OAK | CWS | 165.2 | 3.42 | 3.70 | 1.15 | 63.2% | 20.9% | 7.0% | 0.76 | 1.21 |
| Sale | CWS | OAK | 155 | 2.09 | 2.54 | 0.94 | 64.3% | 30.2% | 5.3% | 0.64 | 1.05 |
| Delgado | ARI | SFG | 65 | 5.40 | 3.53 | 1.40 | 25.0% | 11.1% | 0.83 | 0.82 | |
| Peavy | SFG | ARI | 177.1 | 4.01 | 4.15 | 1.33 | 42.1% | 18.5% | 7.7% | 1.12 | 0.96 |
| Cobb | TBR | NYY | 140 | 2.83 | 3.12 | 1.16 | 42.9% | 23.3% | 6.9% | 0.58 | 2.10 |
| Pineda | NYY | TBR | 50 | 1.80 | 3.75 | 0.84 | 75.0% | 18.0% | 2.1% | 0.54 | 0.78 |
| Liriano | PIT | PHI | 137.1 | 3.74 | 3.52 | 1.31 | 12.5% | 25.3% | 11.0% | 0.85 | 2.05 |
| Burnett | PHI | PIT | 191 | 4.29 | 3.91 | 1.38 | 38.1% | 20.3% | 9.6% | 0.80 | 1.79 |
| Roark | WAS | NYM | 179 | 2.97 | 3.83 | 1.11 | 52.6% | 18.2% | 5.3% | 0.75 | 1.17 |
| Colon | NYM | WAS | 179.2 | 3.96 | 3.71 | 1.16 | 42.1% | 18.1% | 3.1% | 0.95 | 0.95 |
| Rasmus | LAA | TEX | |||||||||
| Martinez | TEX | LAA | 116.1 | 5.03 | 5.31 | 1.59 | 27.3% | 12.6% | 9.9% | 1.32 | 0.72 |
| Eovaldi | MIA | MIL | 178.1 | 4.19 | 3.88 | 1.29 | 50.0% | 17.2% | 4.8% | 0.61 | 1.25 |
| Fiers | MIL | MIA | 48.2 | 2.03 | 2.83 | 0.82 | 28.0% | 5.5% | 0.74 | 0.71 | |
| Webster | BOS | KCR | 40.1 | 6.47 | 5.34 | 1.61 | 14.3% | 13.7% | 0.45 | 1.48 | |
| Hendriks | KCR | BOS | 24.1 | 4.81 | 4.08 | 1.11 | 33.3% | 15.8% | 4.0% | 1.11 | 0.86 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
PLATINUM BUYS:
These are aces who don’t really need much explanation at all. They’re expensive, but awesome. If an ace-level arm is struggling a bit or has a tough matchup, he might fall into the gold or silver tiers, but otherwise you’re going to find the Kershaws, Hernandez, and Sales of the world in here.
Alex Cobb TB (at NYY) – Have you seen how he’s been pitching lately? He’s not in this grouping just because it’s a short slate of games. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his last 12 starts en route to a 1.67 ERA with 78 Ks in 75.7 IP.
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Mike Fiers MIL (v. MIA) – He’s been amazing this year, but it’s just six starts and four relief appearances so it’s hard to throw him up in the Platinum even with Platinum-level production. He does have 2012 on his ledger, too, so it’s not his first bout of success. He may struggle for run support given how poorly the Brewers have been playing, but he can score big even with a loss, let alone a no-decision.
Tanner Roark WAS (at NYM) – Roark has been a popular pick all year long, especially when he was still a bit unproven and his price was held down. Now he’s priced on the level where someone with a 2.97 ERA in 28 starts belongs. He has been strong against the Mets (4 ER in 11 IP), but he hasn’t seen them since May and in the meantime he has gotten better while the Mets have gotten worse. He’s gone fewer than 6 IP once in his last 13 (5.7 IP), posting a 3.16 ERA in the 85.3 IP of work.
Michael Pineda NYY (v. TB) – It’s only been nine starts, so let’s get out our grains of salt, but Pineda has yet to allow more than 2 ER this year. His strikeouts haven’t been on the level of his 2011 rookie season (6.1 K9 after a 9.1 K9 in 2011), but he’s walking virtually nobody with an excellent 0.7 BB9 which gives him a fantastic 8.5 K:BB ratio. He only went 5 IP and 67 pitches in his first start back from the DL, but he’s gone at least 6 IP and between 89 and 98 pitches in his last four.
Francisco Liriano PIT (at PHI) – Liriano has been much better since returning from the DL with a 2.77 ERA in his last 11 starts after a 4.60 ERA in his first 14 starts. He’s still a heavy walk guy (4.0 BB9 in his last 11), but with 72 Ks in the 65 IP, it’s easier to overlook the free passes. A big key to his turnaround has been his ability to once again handle lefties. He had a historically great year against them last year, but regressed allll the way back to a .923 OPS against him in those first 14 starts. That included an obscene .405 BABIP. Since returning, it’s down to a .586 OPS (though still a high .379 BABIP). His strikeout rate against lefties has jumped from 26% in those first 14 to 35% in these last 11. Philly has been in the bottom 10 of OPS against lefties all year long.
SILVER BUYS:
_On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful
fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow._
Bartolo Colon NYM (v. WAS) – Colon has been essentially the same all year long – three good, one bad. It hasn’t always been an exact pattern, but when you look at the complete picture, he’s been fantastic in 75% of his starts (2.23 ERA in 141 IP) and then horrid in a quarter of them (10.31 ERA in 38 IP). That quarter is made up of seven starts of 5+ ER while his three-fourths of excellence comes from 20 strong starts, 19 of which saw him allow three or fewer runs. You’re basically betting it lands on one of three green squares instead of the red one, it’s a worthy bet when you’re successful that frequently.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Nathan Eovaldi MIA (at MIL) – The short slate leaves us a little dry in a couple tiers today, but I did find one low-dollar arm I’d gamble on if I really wanted to roster Cobb or several big bats. The inconsistency that has plagued him in his young career appeared to be degrading some this year, but it returned with a vengeance this summer. He has a useful 3.61 ERA in his last seven starts with 37 Ks and 4.6 K:BB ratio in 42.3 IP. Milwaukee’s slide is in play here, too. They’ve just been so brutal that it’s hard not to like any pitcher with even a modicum of talent, let alone a big arm like Eovaldi.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Clay Buchholz BOS (at KC)
- Nick Martinez TEX (v. LAA)
- Liam Hendriks KC (v. BOS)