Daily Starting Pitcher Breakdown Sept. 12th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McCarthy | NYY | BAL | 180.2 | 4.13 | 3.01 | 1.30 | 35.0% | 20.7% | 4.2% | 1.05 | 2.27 |
| Gausman | BAL | NYY | 96.1 | 3.83 | 4.24 | 1.34 | 37.5% | 18.0% | 8.6% | 0.47 | 1.21 |
| Alvarez | MIA | PHI | 159.1 | 2.88 | 3.62 | 1.24 | 50.0% | 14.9% | 4.6% | 0.73 | 2.33 |
| Hamels | PHI | MIA | 175.2 | 2.56 | 3.36 | 1.17 | 58.8% | 24.0% | 7.7% | 0.67 | 1.43 |
| Wada | CHC | PIT | 55 | 2.95 | 3.82 | 1.09 | 20.4% | 6.7% | 0.98 | 0.86 | |
| Cole | PIT | CHC | 111 | 3.89 | 3.52 | 1.31 | 28.6% | 22.3% | 7.9% | 0.73 | 1.60 |
| Karns | TBR | TOR | |||||||||
| Happ | TOR | TBR | 131.2 | 4.44 | 4.05 | 1.41 | 30.8% | 19.7% | 8.3% | 1.16 | 0.96 |
| Carrasco | CLE | DET | 103.2 | 2.69 | 2.65 | 1.01 | 25.3% | 5.4% | 0.52 | 1.85 | |
| Price | DET | CLE | 219 | 3.33 | 2.67 | 1.07 | 52.4% | 27.3% | 3.7% | 0.99 | 1.06 |
| Gonzalez | WAS | NYM | 138 | 3.78 | 3.59 | 1.26 | 46.7% | 24.0% | 9.2% | 0.65 | 1.29 |
| Gee | NYM | WAS | 120.1 | 3.74 | 4.30 | 1.18 | 50.0% | 17.0% | 7.9% | 1.27 | 1.11 |
| Wood | ATL | TEX | 152 | 2.90 | 3.22 | 1.15 | 58.3% | 23.9% | 6.5% | 0.83 | 1.34 |
| Holland | TEX | ATL | 14 | 0.64 | 3.26 | 0.86 | 21.6% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.63 | |
| Hughes | MIN | CWS | 187.2 | 3.55 | 3.19 | 1.15 | 45.0% | 21.6% | 2.0% | 0.67 | 0.93 |
| Quintana | CWS | MIN | 178.2 | 3.38 | 3.67 | 1.25 | 50.0% | 20.4% | 6.7% | 0.40 | 1.34 |
| Latos | CIN | MIL | 102.1 | 3.25 | 4.08 | 1.15 | 66.7% | 17.6% | 6.2% | 0.79 | 0.94 |
| Lohse | MIL | CIN | 175.1 | 3.85 | 4.05 | 1.22 | 50.0% | 17.3% | 5.7% | 1.08 | 1.01 |
| Webster | BOS | KCR | 40.1 | 6.47 | 5.33 | 1.61 | 14.3% | 13.7% | 0.45 | 1.48 | |
| Ventura | KCR | BOS | 158 | 3.25 | 3.96 | 1.30 | 44.4% | 19.8% | 9.0% | 0.74 | 1.52 |
| De La Rosa | COL | STL | 166.1 | 4.27 | 4.07 | 1.24 | 40.0% | 17.7% | 8.4% | 1.08 | 1.63 |
| Wainwright | STL | COL | 203 | 2.62 | 3.66 | 1.06 | 84.2% | 19.3% | 5.8% | 0.44 | 1.46 |
| Stults | SDP | ARI | 152.1 | 4.55 | 4.42 | 1.40 | 26.3% | 14.6% | 6.5% | 1.48 | 1.16 |
| Nuno | ARI | SDP | 146.1 | 4.37 | 4.00 | 1.22 | 18.8% | 18.8% | 6.6% | 1.41 | 0.88 |
| Oberholtzer | HOU | LAA | 127.1 | 4.38 | 4.32 | 1.37 | 41.7% | 14.9% | 4.7% | 0.78 | 0.86 |
| Wilson | LAA | HOU | 157 | 4.64 | 4.13 | 1.45 | 42.1% | 20.1% | 10.6% | 0.97 | 1.61 |
| Hammel | OAK | SEA | 162.1 | 3.55 | 3.60 | 1.14 | 47.4% | 21.6% | 6.5% | 1.16 | 1.04 |
| Paxton | SEA | OAK | 53 | 1.87 | 3.61 | 1.08 | 50.0% | 18.5% | 7.8% | 0.51 | 2.56 |
| Ryu | LAD | SFG | 151 | 3.16 | 3.15 | 1.16 | 61.1% | 22.2% | 4.5% | 0.48 | 1.56 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | LAD | 197 | 3.02 | 2.97 | 1.10 | 47.6% | 25.1% | 4.9% | 0.82 | 1.29 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either._
PLATINUM BUYS:
These are aces who don’t really need much explanation at all. They’re expensive, but awesome. If an ace-level arm is struggling a bit or has a tough matchup, he might fall into the gold or silver tiers, but otherwise you’re going to find the Kershaws, Hernandez, and Sales of the world in here.
David Price DET (v. CLE)
Cole Hamels PHI (v. MIA)
Madison Bumgarner SF (v. LAD)
Hyun-Jin Ryu LAD (at SF) – He has two bad starts this year accounting for 25% of his earned runs and since the latest of those (July 8th in DET), he has a 2.24 ERA in 52.3 IP with 55 Ks.
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups._
Gerrit Cole PIT (v. PIT) – Cole’s skills were back immediately after his month and a half on the DL as he’s fanned 27 batters in his 25.3 IP since returning along with a 3.4 K:BB ratio. His ERA is 4.26, but that’s marred by five runs in 6.3 IP against St. Louis. His other three starts have all been quality starts. He hasn’t quite dominated the Cubs like you might hope this year. In fact, he has a pair of six-inning outings where he allowed four runs, but only three were earned. He has fanned 18 Cubs this year, though, including eight just five days ago. On a full slate like today, Cole might not be that popular of a pick, though his opponent and recent performance will earn him some attention.
Alex Wood ATL (at TEX) – Wood has been unreal lately with eight excellent starts during which he hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER and he’s only allowed more than 2 ER just once. He’s gone at least seven innings in six of the eight and six innings in the other two. He also has 53 Ks in the 55.3 IP, although the consistency is a little shaky as he has a pair of 12-K outings in that span, but also a one-strikeout and four-strikeout game. Trips to Texas just aren’t as scary this year, especially for someone pitching as well Wood.
Gio Gonzalez WAS (at NYM) – Gonzalez hasn’t been the stud of recent years in 2014, but he’s hardly been bad. He’s toting an upper-3.00s ERA, but he’s still missing a ton of bats and his 1.26 WHIP is palatable. The strikeouts as a constant keep his value relatively high on the daily landscape because he can still score pretty well even with a baseline quality start. The Mets have been brutal against lefties this year, though Gonzalez hasn’t taken full advantage. Their .648 OPS is second-worst in baseball (SD .596) and while they have hung a 6.00 ERA on him in three starts this year, I’m confident that he can handle them this time around. He does have a 9.6 K/9 and 3.2 K:BB ratio in those three starts.
Derek Holland TEX (v. ATL) – Holland’s been fantastic since returning from injury with two brilliant seven-inning efforts and he gets another offense subject to super-slumps. The Braves have been in an offensive tailspin for quite some time, including a .660 OPS against lefties since the break (25th in MLB). I’m a bit surprised that Holland has been this good this quickly, but it wasn’t an arm injury so maybe the expectations could’ve been a touch or two higher from the outset.
Carlos Carrasco CLE (at DET) – It’s a small sample and this is a big risk because of the explosiveness of Detroit’s offense, but Carrasco has been SO good that it’s hard to leave him out of this tier. Since joining the rotation, he’s allowed three earned runs… total. He has a 0.70 ERA in six starts with 42 Ks and an astounding four walks in 38.7 IP. He also has a 0.75 WHIP despite a 10-hit game on the ledger (against these Tigers, but he somehow allowed just 1 ER and still fanned 10 in that same game).
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow._
Adam Wainwright STL (v. COL) – His upside is still substantial as he showed with a complete game against Milwaukee his last time out. But even then he only fanned three. In fact, he’s only fanned more than five just once in 13 starts.
James Paxton SEA (v. OAK) – Paxton has been nothing but good in 13 MLB starts with a 1.75 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, but it’s hard to put him in the Gold Tier because 1) it’s just hard to buy anyone maintaining such a sparkling ERA and 2) he doesn’t have the component numbers that go with such impeccable results (in other words, he’s missing the strikeouts). Of course being in the Silver Tier is hardly a slight. Paxton has traded his strikeouts for much more command and control of his arsenal and it has paid off in spades. We all know what Oakland has been like offensively lately, too, which makes this an easier matchup to jump on than if he had faced ‘em in April or May.
Phil Hughes MIN (at CWS) – I’m a huge fan of Hughes and have trumpeted him in this piece all season long, but he hasn’t handled the Sox well this year and while he has curbed his home run issues this year, they still pop up from time to time so I’ll probably avoid this matchup given how many other worthwhile arms are out there.
Jason Hammel OAK (at SEA) – After a disastrous start with Oakland, Hammel has turned it around down the stretch with three straight great starts. Of course, two of them were against Houston, but he has a 1.66 ERA with 18 Ks in 21.7 IP. The other of those three starts was an 8 IP/1 ER gem against Seattle. He’s actually been much improved going back six starts, but there is a 3 IP/5 ER dud against Atlanta mixed in there. Still, he has 2.45 ERA since the start of August because he’s allowed just 5 ER in the other five starts combined.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort._
Jose Quintana CWS (v. MIN) – Q has definitely had a really strong season overall, but I feel like I’ve been snakebitten with him in daily gaming. He doesn’t have many clunkers on his record, but it seems they come when he’s throwing for me. Of course I’m sure it’s just because I’m remembering the bad ones, like his 5 IP/6 ER pounding against Cleveland back on August 26th. The Twins haven’t been able to figure him out all year. He has a 2.00 ERA against them in three starts with 9.5 K9 and a 3.2 K:BB ratio.
Vidal Nuno ARI (v. SD) – Nuno has quietly been really solid for the D’Backs since being traded for Brandon McCarthy. He has a 3.16 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 3.9 K:BB ratio in 68.3 IP over his 11 starts. He’s been positively excellent in his last five with a 2.31 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, and 4.8 K:BB ratio. He’s gone at least seven innings in four of those five starts, including 7.3 against the Padres on August 23rd. I’ve been impressed with his uptick in strikeouts, too. He hadn’t topped six with the Yankees, but he has three outings of seven with Arizona. This is a great value play for your SP2 at sites that use such a format.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method._
- C.J. Wilson LAA (v. HOU)
- Nathan Karns TB (at TOR)
- Allen Webster BOS (v. KC)
- Bryan Mitchell NYY (at BAL)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McCarthy | 0.330 | 4.05 | 0.325 | 4.23 | 0.261 | 0.738 | 0.333 | 3.48 | 0.28 | 95.00 | 20.7% |
| Gausman | 0.321 | 3.24 | 0.286 | 4.74 | 0.244 | 0.687 | 0.306 | 3.40 | 0.255 | 97.47 | 18.0% |
| Alvarez | 0.291 | 2.43 | 0.330 | 3.45 | 0.242 | 0.664 | 0.300 | 3.63 | 0.268 | 85.69 | 14.9% |
| Hamels | 0.302 | 2.27 | 0.286 | 2.64 | 0.269 | 0.707 | 0.292 | 3.18 | 0.229 | 104.42 | 24.0% |
| Wada | 0.166 | 0.00 | 0.330 | 3.83 | 0.254 | 0.690 | 0.252 | 3.85 | 0.217 | 89.50 | 20.4% |
| Cole | 0.336 | 3.00 | 0.318 | 4.74 | 0.233 | 0.669 | 0.317 | 3.50 | 0.254 | 99.06 | 22.3% |
| Karns | 0.268 | 0.763 | |||||||||
| Happ | 0.370 | 5.20 | 0.338 | 4.24 | 0.252 | 0.701 | 0.311 | 4.22 | 0.267 | 88.88 | 19.7% |
| Carrasco | 0.256 | 2.66 | 0.255 | 2.72 | 0.273 | 0.743 | 0.279 | 2.59 | 0.215 | 43.28 | 25.3% |
| Price | 0.304 | 3.69 | 0.280 | 3.21 | 0.250 | 0.669 | 0.305 | 2.85 | 0.237 | 109.53 | 27.3% |
| Gonzalez | 0.286 | 4.32 | 0.306 | 3.61 | 0.237 | 0.650 | 0.298 | 3.26 | 0.233 | 96.42 | 24.0% |
| Gee | 0.310 | 4.62 | 0.308 | 2.79 | 0.245 | 0.705 | 0.246 | 4.61 | 0.228 | 97.21 | 17.0% |
| Wood | 0.304 | 2.08 | 0.284 | 3.19 | 0.268 | 0.735 | 0.295 | 3.25 | 0.236 | 74.34 | 23.9% |
| Holland | 0.257 | 0.723 | 0.300 | 1.55 | 0.235 | 99.00 | 21.6% | ||||
| Hughes | 0.279 | 2.66 | 0.314 | 4.52 | 0.253 | 0.713 | 0.329 | 2.64 | 0.268 | 94.97 | 21.6% |
| Quintana | 0.286 | 4.72 | 0.293 | 2.89 | 0.255 | 0.703 | 0.311 | 2.88 | 0.251 | 104.69 | 20.4% |
| Latos | 0.270 | 2.57 | 0.306 | 3.88 | 0.258 | 0.720 | 0.269 | 3.64 | 0.235 | 95.81 | 17.6% |
| Lohse | 0.328 | 4.30 | 0.303 | 3.46 | 0.241 | 0.667 | 0.280 | 4.07 | 0.25 | 96.54 | 17.3% |
| Webster | 0.351 | 5.85 | 0.357 | 7.08 | 0.259 | 0.678 | 0.306 | 4.71 | 0.263 | 84.50 | 14.3% |
| Ventura | 0.290 | 2.84 | 0.315 | 3.86 | 0.243 | 0.676 | 0.283 | 3.69 | 0.237 | 95.67 | 19.8% |
| De La Rosa | 0.228 | 2.38 | 0.346 | 4.91 | 0.254 | 0.715 | 0.264 | 4.40 | 0.236 | 95.66 | 17.7% |
| Wainwright | 0.280 | 2.55 | 0.254 | 2.67 | 0.274 | 0.759 | 0.268 | 3.02 | 0.223 | 101.86 | 19.3% |
| Stults | 0.334 | 5.67 | 0.353 | 4.15 | 0.246 | 0.682 | 0.294 | 4.91 | 0.276 | 88.75 | 14.6% |
| Nuno | 0.277 | 3.22 | 0.333 | 4.75 | 0.212 | 0.596 | 0.270 | 4.53 | 0.245 | 82.43 | 18.8% |
| Oberholtzer | 0.329 | 3.60 | 0.330 | 4.62 | 0.278 | 0.786 | 0.323 | 3.64 | 0.287 | 94.81 | 14.9% |
| Wilson | 0.277 | 4.46 | 0.349 | 4.71 | 0.268 | 0.754 | 0.312 | 4.36 | 0.26 | 103.15 | 20.1% |
| Hammel | 0.299 | 3.10 | 0.304 | 3.91 | 0.245 | 0.691 | 0.270 | 3.98 | 0.232 | 95.96 | 21.6% |
| Paxton | 0.269 | 2.09 | 0.242 | 0.700 | 0.255 | 3.33 | 0.216 | 90.33 | 18.5% | ||
| Ryu | 0.279 | 2.67 | 0.287 | 3.30 | 0.257 | 0.716 | 0.312 | 2.60 | 0.249 | 96.64 | 22.2% |
| Bumgarner | 0.247 | 1.96 | 0.299 | 3.34 | 0.240 | 0.694 | 0.301 | 2.94 | 0.238 | 101.93 | 25.1% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window