Daily Starting Pitcher Breakdown Sept. 14th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archer | TBR | TOR | 173.2 | 3.63 | 3.77 | 1.34 | 55.0% | 20.8% | 8.5% | 0.52 | 1.55 |
| Buehrle | TOR | TBR | 182 | 3.31 | 4.38 | 1.38 | 60.0% | 13.5% | 5.5% | 0.64 | 1.31 |
| Bauer | CLE | DET | 137.2 | 4.12 | 3.92 | 1.37 | 38.5% | 22.2% | 9.4% | 0.85 | 0.84 |
| Verlander | DET | CLE | 185 | 4.82 | 4.23 | 1.43 | 35.0% | 17.7% | 7.7% | 0.88 | 0.98 |
| Zimmermann | WAS | NYM | 178 | 2.93 | 3.15 | 1.13 | 52.6% | 22.6% | 3.8% | 0.66 | 1.17 |
| Niese | NYM | WAS | 168 | 3.59 | 3.85 | 1.32 | 41.2% | 17.1% | 6.2% | 0.86 | 1.68 |
| Turner | CHC | PIT | 98.2 | 5.84 | 3.97 | 1.58 | 22.2% | 15.0% | 6.2% | 0.91 | 1.76 |
| Volquez | PIT | CHC | 171.2 | 3.36 | 4.29 | 1.26 | 50.0% | 16.3% | 8.5% | 0.89 | 1.52 |
| Koehler | MIA | PHI | 173.1 | 3.74 | 4.16 | 1.28 | 52.6% | 19.1% | 8.9% | 0.78 | 1.12 |
| Buchanan | PHI | MIA | 99.1 | 3.90 | 4.18 | 1.30 | 20.0% | 14.8% | 6.8% | 1.00 | 1.70 |
| May | MIN | CWS | 29 | 8.38 | 5.04 | 2.07 | 16.9% | 13.4% | 0.93 | 1.00 | |
| Noesi | CWS | MIN | 153.2 | 4.69 | 4.25 | 1.36 | 26.7% | 17.4% | 7.5% | 1.46 | 0.91 |
| Kelly | BOS | KCR | 76 | 4.14 | 4.29 | 1.39 | 40.0% | 16.6% | 10.6% | 0.83 | 2.31 |
| Vargas | KCR | BOS | 174.1 | 3.25 | 4.11 | 1.24 | 68.4% | 16.1% | 5.1% | 0.88 | 1.03 |
| Leake | CIN | MIL | 196.1 | 3.62 | 3.46 | 1.24 | 45.0% | 18.1% | 5.2% | 0.92 | 2.06 |
| Garza | MIL | CIN | 152.2 | 3.83 | 4.05 | 1.19 | 35.0% | 18.0% | 7.1% | 0.65 | 1.19 |
| Lyles | COL | STL | 109.1 | 4.20 | 4.15 | 1.33 | 58.3% | 17.2% | 9.4% | 0.91 | 2.00 |
| Gonzales | STL | COL | 23.1 | 5.01 | 5.15 | 1.76 | 16.4% | 13.6% | 1.16 | 0.93 | |
| Minor | ATL | TEX | 139.2 | 4.58 | 3.81 | 1.41 | 50.0% | 19.6% | 6.6% | 1.35 | 1.15 |
| Lewis | TEX | ATL | 151.1 | 5.29 | 4.12 | 1.53 | 11.8% | 17.8% | 6.0% | 1.25 | 0.79 |
| Keuchel | HOU | LAA | 185 | 3.06 | 3.20 | 1.21 | 50.0% | 17.8% | 6.1% | 0.54 | 3.15 |
| Santiago | LAA | HOU | 117 | 3.38 | 4.29 | 1.26 | 16.7% | 20.2% | 9.2% | 1.00 | 0.59 |
| Kershaw | LAD | SFG | 177.1 | 1.67 | 2.08 | 0.82 | 66.7% | 31.7% | 4.1% | 0.46 | 1.81 |
| Petit | SFG | LAD | 99.1 | 3.62 | 2.53 | 0.99 | 40.0% | 28.4% | 4.6% | 0.82 | 0.80 |
| Despaigne | SDP | ARI | 83.2 | 3.55 | 4.17 | 1.25 | 100.0% | 16.2% | 7.9% | 0.65 | 1.68 |
| Cahill | ARI | SDP | 96.1 | 5.23 | 4.07 | 1.58 | 20.0% | 20.2% | 11.6% | 0.65 | 1.97 |
| Lester | OAK | SEA | 199.2 | 2.52 | 3.07 | 1.10 | 65.0% | 24.7% | 5.2% | 0.68 | 1.17 |
| Young | SEA | OAK | 156 | 3.35 | 5.28 | 1.21 | 47.4% | 15.5% | 8.8% | 1.15 | 0.39 |
| Kuroda | NYY | BAL | 177.1 | 3.91 | 3.80 | 1.18 | 45.0% | 16.9% | 4.7% | 0.86 | 1.44 |
| Tillman | BAL | NYY | 187.2 | 3.36 | 4.34 | 1.23 | 42.9% | 16.9% | 8.0% | 0.91 | 1.06 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
PLATINUM BUYS:
These are aces who don’t really need much explanation at all. They’re expensive, but awesome. If an ace-level arm is struggling a bit or has a tough matchup, he might fall into the gold or silver tiers, but otherwise you’re going to find the Kershaws, Hernandez, and Sales of the world in here.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (at SFG)
Jon Lester OAK (at SEA)
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Jordan Zimmermann WAS (at NYM) – Zimmerman is 5-0 in 10 post All-Star break starts for the Nationals posting a 2.77 ERA in that span. He will have a really solid matchup with the Mets bats today, and he should continue his string of good starts. With solid K potential and a good shot at the win Zimmerman makes for one of the better pitching options on the day.
Edinson Volquez PIT (v. CHC) – Volquez is 7-1 with a 2.18 ERA in his last 14 starts for the Pirates. A guy known for being inconsistent has been anything but that and will see a pretty bad Cubs team today. He has somewhat limited K upside with his newly found control, but the trade-off is more innings pitched and a better chance at the win.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Mike Minor ATL (at TEX) – Generally I don’t like to pick LHP facing the Rangers as they are sneaky-good against southpaws. However, Minor has looked a lot better recently. He is another guy with somewhat limited K upside who should pitch 6+ innings with only a couple runs. The Braves bats should be able to get to Lewis giving him a boost for the win bonus.
Yusmeiro Petit SFG (v. LAD) – Petit pitched a complete game last time out. If it weren’t for the fact that Kershaw is pitching for the Dodgers he would have made the Gold Buys today. Petit offers a really solid K rate and now that he is stretched out his value is really solid. On the year he has held opponents to a .218 batting average while striking out 110 in 99 1/3 innings pitched.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Hector Santiago LAA (v. HOU) – Santiago is 4-0 with a 2.04 ERA since the break for the Halos with a modest K rate. The Angels offense is rolling right now so if you play on a heavy win bonus site he represents a great value play today. He has not been pitching deep into games but 6 innings with a couple earned and a win is a very good possibility here.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
Trevor May MIN (at CWS)
Trevor Cahill ARI (v. SDP)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Archer | 0.298 | 2.95 | 0.309 | 4.50 | 0.267 | 0.760 | 0.312 | 3.31 | 0.251 | 98.34 | 20.8% |
| Buehrle | 0.326 | 2.87 | 0.330 | 3.47 | 0.248 | 0.694 | 0.319 | 3.67 | 0.285 | 96.48 | 13.5% |
| Bauer | 0.322 | 4.32 | 0.323 | 3.93 | 0.273 | 0.744 | 0.312 | 3.82 | 0.251 | 101.43 | 22.2% |
| Verlander | 0.311 | 3.63 | 0.383 | 6.63 | 0.256 | 0.733 | 0.318 | 3.91 | 0.274 | 106.48 | 17.7% |
| Zimmermann | 0.303 | 3.10 | 0.279 | 2.76 | 0.238 | 0.676 | 0.314 | 2.76 | 0.253 | 90.79 | 22.6% |
| Niese | 0.302 | 4.15 | 0.336 | 3.39 | 0.267 | 0.723 | 0.308 | 3.81 | 0.268 | 93.48 | 17.1% |
| Turner | 0.356 | 5.67 | 0.371 | 5.95 | 0.260 | 0.744 | 0.360 | 3.97 | 0.318 | 62.56 | 15.0% |
| Volquez | 0.329 | 3.84 | 0.295 | 3.00 | 0.233 | 0.669 | 0.267 | 4.35 | 0.237 | 92.55 | 16.3% |
| Koehler | 0.287 | 3.12 | 0.324 | 4.36 | 0.242 | 0.663 | 0.281 | 3.89 | 0.238 | 91.34 | 19.1% |
| Buchanan | 0.249 | 2.25 | 0.374 | 5.20 | 0.248 | 0.699 | 0.282 | 4.35 | 0.256 | 91.76 | 14.8% |
| May | 0.398 | 5.40 | 0.421 | 10.91 | 0.253 | 0.713 | 0.404 | 4.98 | 0.339 | 0.00 | 16.9% |
| Noesi | 0.311 | 4.35 | 0.370 | 5.17 | 0.251 | 0.715 | 0.290 | 4.75 | 0.264 | 82.30 | 17.4% |
| Kelly | 0.310 | 2.74 | 0.339 | 5.94 | 0.257 | 0.675 | 0.282 | 4.53 | 0.246 | 92.07 | 16.6% |
| Vargas | 0.306 | 2.28 | 0.309 | 3.57 | 0.245 | 0.703 | 0.294 | 3.76 | 0.261 | 102.41 | 16.1% |
| Leake | 0.355 | 3.96 | 0.290 | 3.36 | 0.257 | 0.720 | 0.299 | 3.75 | 0.259 | 98.23 | 18.1% |
| Garza | 0.285 | 3.41 | 0.291 | 4.18 | 0.241 | 0.665 | 0.271 | 3.49 | 0.232 | 94.80 | 18.0% |
| Lyles | 0.372 | 3.93 | 0.279 | 4.45 | 0.255 | 0.689 | 0.276 | 4.37 | 0.242 | 96.16 | 17.2% |
| Gonzales | 0.400 | 4.67 | 0.274 | 0.790 | 0.315 | 5.30 | 0.277 | 72.33 | 16.4% | ||
| Minor | 0.385 | 4.76 | 0.335 | 4.53 | 0.266 | 0.732 | 0.321 | 4.29 | 0.278 | 99.87 | 19.6% |
| Lewis | 0.387 | 5.29 | 0.339 | 5.30 | 0.239 | 0.662 | 0.348 | 4.29 | 0.303 | 96.92 | 17.8% |
| Keuchel | 0.277 | 2.62 | 0.305 | 3.21 | 0.279 | 0.784 | 0.299 | 3.30 | 0.252 | 103.19 | 17.8% |
| Santiago | 0.254 | 2.20 | 0.315 | 3.84 | 0.269 | 0.754 | 0.273 | 4.10 | 0.233 | 78.38 | 20.2% |
| Kershaw | 0.191 | 0.54 | 0.234 | 1.94 | 0.259 | 0.719 | 0.263 | 1.88 | 0.186 | 99.54 | 31.7% |
| Petit | 0.323 | 5.01 | 0.217 | 2.64 | 0.267 | 0.732 | 0.284 | 2.66 | 0.217 | 39.19 | 28.4% |
| Despaigne | 0.337 | 3.57 | 0.260 | 3.53 | 0.247 | 0.675 | 0.276 | 3.87 | 0.241 | 97.07 | 16.2% |
| Cahill | 0.387 | 7.71 | 0.297 | 3.49 | 0.228 | 0.637 | 0.335 | 3.91 | 0.27 | 58.07 | 20.2% |
| Lester | 0.307 | 2.01 | 0.276 | 2.67 | 0.247 | 0.652 | 0.297 | 2.81 | 0.233 | 109.31 | 24.7% |
| Young | 0.342 | 3.33 | 0.264 | 3.36 | 0.249 | 0.715 | 0.238 | 4.66 | 0.223 | 91.86 | 15.5% |
| Kuroda | 0.312 | 4.07 | 0.288 | 3.71 | 0.260 | 0.737 | 0.285 | 3.67 | 0.251 | 96.83 | 16.9% |
| Tillman | 0.294 | 2.83 | 0.303 | 3.98 | 0.242 | 0.683 | 0.261 | 4.09 | 0.233 | 99.87 | 16.9% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window