Daily Starting Pitcher Breakdown Sept. 15th

by PSporer Last Updated 2014-09-15 23:05:17

The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.

PLATINUM BUYS:

These are aces who don’t really need much explanation at all. They’re expensive, but awesome. If an ace-level arm is struggling a bit or has a tough matchup, he might fall into the gold or silver tiers, but otherwise you’re going to find the Kershaws, Hernandez, and Sales of the world in here.

Stephen Strasburg WAS (at ATL)

Hisashi Iwakuma SEA (at LAA)

Max Scherzer DET (at MIN)

James Shields KC (v. CWS)

Matt Shoemaker LAA (v. SEA)

GOLD BUYS:

These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.

Jacob deGrom NYM (v. MIA) – deGrom needed one tune-up after returning from the DL (6 IP/5 ER), but he’s been incredible in three starts since then with just two runs allowed, both unearned. He’s allowed just 12 hits in the 21 innings of work and accumulated an impressive 20 Ks and 5.0 K:BB ratio. One of the three starts was in Miami and it was his third gem against them this year. He has allowed two runs (just one earned) 20 IP against them.

Andrew Cashner SD (v. PHI) – It’s hard to argue with the results Cashner has put up since returning (2.52 ERA, 1.24 WHIP in 25 IP), but the skills haven’t quite backed up such a spectacular ERA. His 4.0 K:BB ratio definitely work, but it’s built on a lack of walks as he has just 16 Ks in the four outings. He’s still shown the big upside with eight strikeouts in the second of those four, but he also has efforts of one and two strikeouts, making it tough to register a huge score. I still see him as a gold option, though, because his stuff looks great and I still believe he is more than 8 Ks than the 1-2 Ks. With that upside and a modest opponent, he’s primed for a big game.

SILVER BUYS:

On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.

Marcus Stroman TOR (at BAL) – The venue and matchup dropped him a tier because he’s been pitching like a stud all season. He had a little ugliness there in early August when he stunk in three of four, but he’s rebounded and then some with a 1.59 ERA in his last three along with 18 Ks and just two walks in 22.7 innings of work. He even threw a Maddux his last time out which is just insane when it comes with eight strikeouts. For those unfamiliar, a Maddux is a nine-inning shutout in fewer than 100 pitches (meaning exactly 100 doesn’t count… a needed distinction for some). This is his first time against his powerful division foes and it’s in their treacherous home park so I’m putting a little caution on Stroman.

Wei-Yin Chen BAL (v. TOR) – This isn’t an easy matchup for Chen, either. Toronto is 22 runs away from their August total (86) despite having played 15 fewer games than they did all of last month. This offense is back to being a force and a team to be very careful with in daily gaming when pitchers are facing them. But Chen still earns a look because he’s been pitching so well lately. He hasn’t allowed more than 4 ER in any of his last 12 and he’s only allowed the four twice. He has a 2.85 ERA and 1.11 WHIP during the run and while his 6.9 K9 isn’t overly impressive compared to the best of the best, it’s still an improvement from where he was earlier this year (6.3 K9 in first 16 starts).

Wade Miley ARI (v. SF) – SF ran up nine base runners and 58 pitches on Miley in just two innings his last time out which stops his streak of great starts at five, but even with the poor outing he still has a 2.86 ERA in six starts since that 10 ER dud against KC. Miley is never someone you feel ENTIRELY comfortable with in the daily game, he’s more of a guy who you put in your lineup and just leave there for the season. But that doesn’t mean he’s devoid of value in our game. This is a good pitcher who is a few collapses away from a strong ERA. Outside of his four outings with 5+ ER, he has a 3.34 ERA in 164.3 IP. He’s a worthwhile SP2.

Ryan Vogelsong SF (at ARI) – Vogey is essentially the same story as Miley. In fact, if you lift his three 5+ ER outings (two of them in Coors), his ERA drops from 3.90 to 3.11. He survived five walks against Arizona his last time out because he allowed just two hits in the 6.7 innings of work. You can’t just ignore the duds that Vogelsong or Miley have put up, but the point is that they are mostly good pitchers who do carry risk, but also have real upside since they have modest or even low prices in some instances.

VALUE PLAYS:

These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Alfredo Simon CIN (at CHC) – I thought we were done with him, too. But discarding one of the year’s biggest surprises from consideration may’ve been premature. He seemed to be hitting a wall in early-August, but he emerged from it late in the month and he’s been sharp in three of his last four. In the three good starts, he’s gone seven in each and allowed 1, 2, and 3 ER with 18 Ks and 6 BBs. He has absolutely owned the Cubs this year (1.40 ERA, 0.97 WHIP in 25.7 IP), I suspect a third straight good start and his fourth in five tries.

Jarred Cosart MIA (at NYM) – Not only Cosart on a huge run since joining the Falcons, but now his component numbers are rising up to match the impressive results. He has a 1.93 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 30 Ks, and a 3.0 K:BB ratio in 46.7 IP with the Marlins, but he’s got 18 Ks and a 4.5 K:BB ratio in his last 20.7 IP (three starts). Cosart has run the gamut this year from eight shutout innings in Tampa Bay to seven runs allowed in just a third of an inning in Oakland with everything in between, so there’s definitely risk here, but even at his newly elevated price, he’s still definitely cheap enough to return huge value.

STAYAWAYS:

These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.

• Christian Bergman COL (v. LAD)

• Anthony Swarzak MIN (v. DET)

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Starting Pitcher Salaries

Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.

• Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.

NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window