Daily Starting Pitcher Breakdown Sept. 16th
The Daily Pitcher Breakdown goes in-depth to look at nearly every pitching option, with a focus on the best targets for each night. Sometimes there will be a best of the rest section featuring guys who are likely low-dollar options with some upside for those of you who prefer to load your lineup with hitting studs.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in White are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ranaudo | BOS | PIT | 26.2 | 5.40 | 6.13 | 1.54 | 8.5% | 10.2% | 2.70 | 0.60 | |
| Morton | PIT | BOS | 152.1 | 3.84 | 3.76 | 1.27 | 50.0% | 18.6% | 8.5% | 0.53 | 2.44 |
| Hutchison | TOR | BAL | 169.1 | 4.36 | 3.73 | 1.25 | 31.6% | 22.2% | 7.5% | 1.01 | 0.80 |
| Jimenez | BAL | TOR | 114.1 | 4.96 | 4.63 | 1.56 | 27.8% | 20.6% | 13.8% | 1.10 | 1.22 |
| Roark | WAS | ATL | 185.1 | 2.96 | 3.89 | 1.12 | 52.6% | 17.8% | 5.2% | 0.78 | 1.12 |
| Harang | ATL | WAS | 183.2 | 3.72 | 4.25 | 1.43 | 75.0% | 17.8% | 8.2% | 0.59 | 1.08 |
| Eovaldi | MIA | NYM | 182.1 | 4.29 | 3.92 | 1.32 | 50.0% | 16.8% | 4.9% | 0.69 | 1.27 |
| Colon | NYM | MIA | 182.2 | 4.14 | 3.75 | 1.19 | 42.1% | 17.9% | 3.3% | 1.03 | 0.95 |
| Pineda | NYY | TBR | 57.1 | 2.20 | 3.88 | 0.91 | 75.0% | 16.4% | 1.8% | 0.78 | 0.82 |
| Odorizzi | TBR | NYY | 159 | 4.08 | 3.56 | 1.25 | 36.8% | 24.9% | 8.1% | 1.08 | 0.64 |
| Cueto | CIN | CHC | 222 | 2.15 | 3.15 | 0.96 | 76.2% | 25.1% | 6.7% | 0.81 | 1.33 |
| Arrieta | CHC | CIN | 140.2 | 2.82 | 3.02 | 1.07 | 50.0% | 25.7% | 7.0% | 0.32 | 1.71 |
| Bassitt | CWS | KCR | 13.1 | 4.73 | 4.57 | 1.58 | 17.7% | 11.3% | 0.00 | 1.29 | |
| Hendriks | KCR | CWS | 26.2 | 5.06 | 4.31 | 1.24 | 33.3% | 14.7% | 5.2% | 1.01 | 0.92 |
| Kluber | CLE | HOU | 212.2 | 2.45 | 2.75 | 1.10 | 57.1% | 26.8% | 5.4% | 0.59 | 1.61 |
| Tropeano | HOU | CLE | |||||||||
| Porcello | DET | MIN | 189.2 | 3.23 | 3.81 | 1.18 | 55.6% | 15.2% | 4.4% | 0.71 | 1.76 |
| Nolasco | MIN | DET | 140.1 | 5.64 | 4.14 | 1.55 | 16.7% | 16.0% | 5.5% | 1.28 | 1.13 |
| Peralta | MIL | STL | 177.2 | 3.75 | 3.78 | 1.35 | 47.4% | 17.6% | 7.4% | 1.17 | 2.06 |
| Lynn | STL | MIL | 184.2 | 2.73 | 3.91 | 1.27 | 60.0% | 20.6% | 8.6% | 0.39 | 1.26 |
| Haren | LAD | COL | 169 | 3.99 | 3.83 | 1.22 | 30.0% | 18.2% | 4.9% | 1.33 | 1.08 |
| Matzek | COL | LAD | 106.1 | 4.23 | 4.23 | 1.36 | 25.0% | 17.0% | 8.9% | 0.76 | 1.57 |
| Peavy | SFG | ARI | 183 | 3.93 | 4.05 | 1.32 | 42.1% | 19.0% | 7.5% | 1.08 | 0.97 |
| Collmenter | ARI | SFG | 157 | 3.67 | 4.15 | 1.18 | 29.4% | 16.6% | 6.0% | 0.97 | 0.98 |
| Tepesch | TEX | OAK | 108.2 | 4.47 | 5.03 | 1.38 | 27.3% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 1.08 | 1.24 |
| Samardzija | OAK | TEX | 197.2 | 3.10 | 3.18 | 1.10 | 60.0% | 22.5% | 5.4% | 0.82 | 1.64 |
| Elias | SEA | LAA | 160.2 | 3.81 | 3.94 | 1.30 | 26.3% | 20.9% | 9.3% | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| Rasmus | LAA | SEA | 45 | 2.80 | 3.06 | 1.13 | 25.5% | 8.2% | 1.00 | 0.92 | |
| Burnett | PHI | SDP | 197 | 4.34 | 3.90 | 1.38 | 38.1% | 20.5% | 9.7% | 0.78 | 1.78 |
| Kennedy | SDP | PHI | 181.1 | 3.77 | 3.44 | 1.32 | 47.6% | 24.6% | 8.2% | 0.65 | 1.09 |
Here is a look at the day’s slate of arms and how they might stack in their given matchups.
If a guy isn’t listed, he’s just kind of a neutral option – I’m not using him, but I’m not stacking against him, either.
PLATINUM BUYS:
These are aces who don’t really need much explanation at all. They’re expensive, but awesome. If an ace-level arm is struggling a bit or has a tough matchup, he might fall into the gold or silver tiers, but otherwise you’re going to find the Kershaws, Hernandez, and Sales of the world in here.
Corey Kluber CLE (at HOU)
Johnny Cueto CIN (at CHC)
Lance Lynn STL (v. MIL)
Jake Arrieta CHC (v. CIN) – The Reds popped him (4 IP/6 ER) in late-August, but he also went 7 IP/2 ER (with 9 Ks) against them earlier in the year. Even with that Cincy hiccup, he has a 2.87 ERA in his last six starts.
GOLD BUYS:
These aren’t just low-cost guys with good matchups and/or venues, but you will also find expensive studs in here with great matchups.
Jake Odorizzi TB (v. NYY) – Odorizzi finally get the Yankees where he wants them: at home. He’s faced them three times this year, all on the road, and it hasn’t gone well – 7.71 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, and a 1.7 K:BB ratio in 14 IP. They’ve made a significant contribution to Odorizzi’s 6.06 ERA (65.3 IP) on the road this year and he hopes to make them a victim of his 2.69 ERA at home (93.7 IP). He has identical 9.5 K9 rates home and away, but his K:BB ratio is a few ticks better at home with a 3.2 compared to his 2.9 on the road. Odorizzi has been insanely volatile of late with two gems and two horrific home run-heavy demolitions on the road: 4 IP/8 ER at BAL, 7 IP/0 ER v. BOS, 7.3 IP/0 ER v. TOR, and 4.3 IP/6 ER at NYY. That kind of volatility rarely finds its way into the gold tier, but we’re short on options after the platinum arms and he has 12 outings of 7+ Ks including a pair of double-digit efforts.
Tanner Roark WAS (at ATL) – Roark thought it was a mandate to get beaten by the Braves as a Washington National. He was popped for 4.2 IP/5 ER in his first start against them on April 11th which is in line with the struggles the team has had against Atlanta at large. But he’s allowed just two earned in 12.3 IP over two starts since then, including a 7 IP/1 ER gem on August 9th. Roark’s gold status is earned more by his consistency and high floor. He’s allowed two or fewer in 19 of 29 starts with seven other starts where he allowed three or four earned runs while making it into at least the sixth inning. He only has three true duds (5+ ER) and at least he still made into the fifth of all of those. Even Strasburg overcame his Brave-o-phobia this year with seven scoreless on Monday night.
SILVER BUYS:
On some days the slate is so full that there are just tons of worthy options. When that happens, they can’t all be Best Buys, so I’ll split them into Gold and Silver buys. The Silver buys will carry a touch more risk than the Gold ones either because their price isn’t necessarily a value or they have a worthy, but not overwhelming matchup. They aren’t the prime values, but they are useful fallbacks if your budget forces you in a direction you hadn’t originally intended to follow.
Michael Pineda NYY (at TB) – He finally faltered. And I use that term lightly. I mean, his last outing wasn’t good by any stretch, but it’s also pretty impressive that a 7.3 IP/4 ER was his worst start of the season (aside from the pinetar outing). I’ve been really impressed with his season, but it’s tough to completely back him as a gold option with that 5.7 K9. The 9.0 K:BB ratio is fantastic, but it’s entirely built on his elite 0.6 BB9. He’s been mistake-free more often than not yielding impressive results, but the lack of strikeouts really limit his daily upside which puts him in the SP2 category.
Jake Peavy SF (at ARI) – The Giants picked up a struggling veteran midseason and he was resurgent with them. That never happens………….. Peavy was solid in his first four starts with the Giants, but he’s really taken off during his last five with a 1.08 ERA, 32 Ks, and an 8.0 K:BB ratio in 33.3 IP. A major key to his resurgence has been cutting the homer. He had a 1.5 HR9 in 124 IP with Boston, but it’s down to 0.3 in 59 IP with SF which makes this venue a little less daunting. Injury returns have fattened up the lineup a bit with A.J. Pollock and Chris Ownings back atop the lineup.
Ian Kennedy SD (v. PHI) – Kennedy has been a bit too hittable lately allowing 52 in his last 41 IP en route to a 4.39 ERA. His .397 BABIP in that time is well above his .314 BABIP from his first 23 starts, but it hasn’t just been a spate of bad luck. He’s allowing a 30% line drive rate during those six starts. Frankly, if there’s any luck involved here, it would be in his favor. That kind of line drive rate can easily yield some mid-.400 BABIPs, but at least he’s keeping the ball in the yard. I still like him at home against this inept offense. Cashner decimated them and Kennedy can, too.
A.J. Burnett PHI (at SD) – In the last calendar month, the Padres are back in a familiar spot – last place in the OPS rankings. They had a little spurt with the bats shortly after the break, but they’ve fallen back into their light-hitting ways with a .603 OPS. They have a .629 against righties which jumps allll the way up to 27th and if you look at their work versus righties at home, they get right back into that 30-spot with .562 mark. Burnett hasn’t been much more than average this year, but his strikeouts are back on track and he still has that gem potential in him, especially against a very weak opponent in a remarkably favorable park.
VALUE PLAYS:
These are guys aren’t inherently good buys, but they have a nice matchup and they’re likely to be very cheap so you can save with them and take the gamble that they come through with a strong effort.
Drew Hutchison TOR (at BAL) – OK, this is a risky one without a doubt because of that Baltimore offense, but let’s consider some positives first. Hutchison is absolutely on fire of late with a 1.78 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in his last four starts with 32 Ks in 25.3 IP. He has also dominated the Orioles all year. He has a 0.98 ERA and 0.76 WHIP against them in four starts (including 13 scoreless IP at Camden Yards) with 25 Ks in 27.7 IP.
Josh Collmenter ARI (v. SF) – Lost in a terrible year for the Diamondbacks is the fact that Collmenter has been pretty solid this year despite being pressed into essentially full-time starting duty. He has been electric of late, though there is a pretty substantial caveat – two of the four starts were against SD. He has a 0.65 ERA in his last four and while it does include that pair against SD, it also includes six shutout innings against the Giants his last time out. He doesn’t do anything special by way of strikeouts, but he’s economical with his pitches and gets deep into games which is where his value lies.
STAYAWAYS:
These guys should just be avoided either because of their matchup, talent-level, or both. These guys are often the ones you’ll want to stack against if you use that method.
- Tyler Matzek COL (v. LAD) – I love what he’s done of late (1.75 ERA in five starts, two at home), but this Dodger offense is on fire lately and I can’t run a guy out in Coors against them right now.
- Danny Duffy KC (v. CWS) – He threw one pitch his last time out. It’s just too big a risk to throw him here.
- Dan Haren LAD (at COL)
- Nick Tepesch TEX (at OAK)
- Ricky Nolasco MIN (v. DET)
- Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (v. TOR)
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ranaudo | 0.402 | 5.87 | 0.363 | 4.76 | 0.260 | 0.745 | 0.239 | 7.62 | 0.274 | 87.60 | 8.5% |
| Morton | 0.302 | 3.70 | 0.315 | 3.97 | 0.242 | 0.673 | 0.293 | 3.77 | 0.243 | 96.48 | 18.6% |
| Hutchison | 0.345 | 5.56 | 0.278 | 2.92 | 0.260 | 0.738 | 0.291 | 3.78 | 0.241 | 95.14 | 22.2% |
| Jimenez | 0.361 | 5.68 | 0.319 | 4.06 | 0.266 | 0.760 | 0.298 | 4.81 | 0.249 | 95.55 | 20.6% |
| Roark | 0.304 | 3.43 | 0.265 | 2.47 | 0.239 | 0.661 | 0.274 | 3.54 | 0.239 | 97.38 | 17.8% |
| Harang | 0.342 | 3.07 | 0.306 | 4.25 | 0.247 | 0.708 | 0.323 | 3.51 | 0.272 | 102.27 | 17.8% |
| Eovaldi | 0.339 | 4.44 | 0.297 | 4.13 | 0.238 | 0.676 | 0.319 | 3.42 | 0.275 | 97.63 | 16.8% |
| Colon | 0.299 | 4.07 | 0.322 | 4.22 | 0.248 | 0.699 | 0.300 | 3.62 | 0.264 | 97.29 | 17.9% |
| Pineda | 0.264 | 1.67 | 0.262 | 2.88 | 0.247 | 0.685 | 0.247 | 3.21 | 0.223 | 84.50 | 16.4% |
| Odorizzi | 0.296 | 4.07 | 0.314 | 4.09 | 0.241 | 0.681 | 0.291 | 3.69 | 0.234 | 97.79 | 24.9% |
| Cueto | 0.254 | 1.86 | 0.261 | 2.42 | 0.233 | 0.670 | 0.238 | 3.28 | 0.192 | 107.97 | 25.1% |
| Arrieta | 0.266 | 2.45 | 0.247 | 3.10 | 0.241 | 0.665 | 0.286 | 2.41 | 0.213 | 96.04 | 25.7% |
| Bassitt | 0.258 | 0.676 | 0.333 | 3.49 | 0.264 | 77.67 | 17.7% | ||||
| Hendriks | 0.316 | 3.55 | 0.331 | 6.43 | 0.252 | 0.712 | 0.276 | 4.32 | 0.252 | 75.17 | 14.7% |
| Kluber | 0.312 | 2.46 | 0.244 | 2.45 | 0.230 | 0.671 | 0.307 | 2.55 | 0.232 | 102.06 | 26.8% |
| Tropeano | 0.256 | 0.732 | |||||||||
| Porcello | 0.302 | 2.96 | 0.297 | 3.56 | 0.251 | 0.717 | 0.290 | 3.52 | 0.259 | 96.62 | 15.2% |
| Nolasco | 0.404 | 5.68 | 0.363 | 5.60 | 0.273 | 0.745 | 0.355 | 4.40 | 0.317 | 97.79 | 16.0% |
| Peralta | 0.367 | 5.48 | 0.287 | 2.14 | 0.255 | 0.688 | 0.296 | 4.36 | 0.262 | 99.93 | 17.6% |
| Lynn | 0.303 | 2.83 | 0.287 | 2.66 | 0.257 | 0.719 | 0.293 | 3.15 | 0.234 | 104.53 | 20.6% |
| Haren | 0.289 | 3.23 | 0.348 | 4.79 | 0.274 | 0.756 | 0.283 | 4.17 | 0.256 | 97.93 | 18.2% |
| Matzek | 0.218 | 2.54 | 0.366 | 4.85 | 0.240 | 0.694 | 0.297 | 3.98 | 0.257 | 88.33 | 17.0% |
| Peavy | 0.352 | 4.81 | 0.315 | 3.15 | 0.247 | 0.677 | 0.299 | 4.13 | 0.258 | 101.83 | 19.0% |
| Collmenter | 0.341 | 3.36 | 0.273 | 3.95 | 0.256 | 0.704 | 0.276 | 3.94 | 0.248 | 80.60 | 16.6% |
| Tepesch | 0.320 | 4.66 | 0.383 | 4.20 | 0.249 | 0.714 | 0.283 | 4.91 | 0.271 | 87.20 | 10.8% |
| Samardzija | 0.296 | 2.67 | 0.282 | 3.48 | 0.249 | 0.665 | 0.284 | 3.29 | 0.233 | 100.73 | 22.5% |
| Elias | 0.295 | 3.03 | 0.323 | 4.03 | 0.279 | 0.784 | 0.291 | 4.01 | 0.241 | 92.89 | 20.9% |
| Rasmus | 0.296 | 4.82 | 0.259 | 1.37 | 0.244 | 0.691 | 0.265 | 3.48 | 0.213 | 26.81 | 25.5% |
| Burnett | 0.342 | 5.12 | 0.313 | 3.69 | 0.228 | 0.638 | 0.303 | 3.93 | 0.248 | 102.39 | 20.5% |
| Kennedy | 0.314 | 3.60 | 0.317 | 3.91 | 0.242 | 0.662 | 0.329 | 3.08 | 0.253 | 103.00 | 24.6% |
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if Felix Hernandez is $9,000 on FanDuel and Justin Verlander is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window