Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Cowboys vs. Buccaneers Odds
| Cowboys Odds | -2.5 |
| Buccaneers Odds | +2.5 |
| Over/Under | 45.5 |
| Date | Mon, Jan. 16 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
Super Wild Card weekend will conclude on Monday Night Football with a battle between the Dallas Cowboys and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. In the regular season, Dallas won 12 games, finishing second in the NFC East. Tampa Bay was the only division winner to finish below .500, at 8-9. Oddsmakers are anticipating a competitive game script this evening, pricing Dallas as 2.5-point road favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Dallas Cowboys
Dangerous with Dak
Following an early season injury, Dak Prescott returned to the field in Week 7 to lead the Cowboys to an 8-2 record across their subsequent 10 games. In that span, Dallas’ offense ranked 4th in EPA overall, 3rd in dropback EPA, and 8th in rush EPA. Across their final 11 regular season games, the Cowboys scored 24 points or more 10 times, with a meaningless Week 18 affair against the Washington Commanders being the only outlier.
If there is any reason for concern for the Cowboys this postseason, it is tied to “(player-popup #dak-prescott)Dak Prescott”:/players/dak-prescott-35539’s poor decision-making this season – ranking 19th out of 24 qualified quarterbacks in turnover-worthy-play rate. Facing a ball-hawking Tampa Bay defense, Prescott will need to take care of the ball for this offense to perform at a high level tonight.
Elite defense
The perception of the Cowboys in the mainstream media is largely shaped by the play of Prescott and the offense on a yearly basis, but bettors should not overlook the fact that this team has one of the best defenses in the entire NFL. From Week 7 to Week 17, Dallas’ defense ranked 2nd in EPA overall, 7th in dropback EPA, and 5th in rush EPA.
A significant portion of their defensive prowess is attributable to the play of Micah Parsons, who finished his sophomore campaign graded as the second best edge defender in the league, per Pro Football Focus. Parsons led the team with 13.5 sacks in 17 games this year, spear-heading a Dallas pass rush that finished 2nd in sacks per pass attempt in 2022. Expect a strong showing from this group on Monday against a Tampa Bay offense that has experienced difficulties against talented teams.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Buccaneers struggles against top-tier teams
Excluding a Week 1 victory over the Cowboys – a game in which Prescott left early with an injury, the Buccaneers lost 41-31 to the Kansas City Chiefs, 27-22 to the Baltimore Ravens, 35-7 to the San Francisco 49ers, and 34-23 to the Cincinnati Bengals. Tampa Bay’s only win over a playoff team during the final 17 weeks of the season came against the Seattle Seahawks – a team that lost by 18 points in the opening round of the postseason.
Brady under duress
During the latter portion of “(player-popup #tom-brady)Tom Brady”:/players/tom-brady-11604’s career, he has struggled mightily against pressure, but this has often gone overlooked because he has been fortunate to have strong offensive lines blocking for him. In 2022, Brady posted a 2-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio when under pressure and ranked 13th out of 18 qualified quarterbacks in big-time-throw percentage on those dropbacks.
Secondary unit finally healthy
Tonight, the Buccaneers are likely to have their top three cornerbacks and their top three safeties all healthy and available for the first time since Week 4. Per Greg Auman, Carlton Davis, Jamel Dean, Sean Murphy-Bunting, Antoine Winfield, Mike Edwards, and Logan Ryan combined to miss 27 games in that span.
From Week 1 to Week 3, Tampa Bay led the NFL in defensive EPA, ranking 1st in dropback EPA and 5th in rush EPA after matchups with the Cowboys, New Orleans Saints, and Green Bay Packers.
Cowboys vs. Buccaneers – Picks & Predictions
Per Greg Auman, Tampa Bay’s top four options for the interior of their offensive line were all limited by injury in some form this week at practice. Facing an elite Dallas defense, Tom Brady and company are likely to struggle to generate much offense. Dallas will have a tough test offensively against a Buccaneers’ defense that will be the healthiest it has been since late September. Expect a low-scoring battle between these two teams on Monday – take the under.
PICK: Under 45 (-104, Wynn)
Image Credit: Imagn