DB730's Friday Podcast Picks
If you have listened to the Daily Fantasy Fix podcast presented by Daily Joust this week you know I have been struggling with a cold. It’s Day 4 of this thing and it’s not getting better. So instead of torturing your ears and my throat for 20 minutes, I decided it would be better to do a defacto “written podcast” for Friday because I know you need your CFB picks and value plays for the weekend.
Here are my thoughts on College Football.
QB’s
Denard Robinson vs. Illinois 183K DJ 14.8K DS I often pick college football players like I pick stocks. You want to buy them when they are low. Denard is as low as I have ever seen so I think it’s time to buy. For the price he is definitely a play on both Daily Joust and DS, but with the extra points for rushing I really think he is a solid play on Joust. He has had a rough go of it the last few weeks, but the Illinois defense is not all that impressive. Northwestern runs a similar offense to UM and they had their way with the Illini. Michigan doesn’t have much in way of playmakers so anytime the Wolverines score there is a good change Shoelace will be involved in one way or another. If he comes through with 3 total TD’s I’ll be a happy camper on Saturday.
Tyler Wilson vs. Tennessee 192K DJ 11.6K DS Wilson has been one of the more consistent quarterbacks this season and I’m a little surprised he is priced this low. He has had multiple TD’s (passing or running) in every game but 1 this year, so you are almost guaranteed to get quality points for him. He has only had one “Monster” game (vs. Texas A&M) this year, but if there is a spot where he might have another this could be it against a Tennessee team that doesn’t have the strongest defense in the league.
RB
Montae Ball vs. Minnesota 319K DJ 19.1K DS I haven’t taken Ball all year long, so I hope this isn’t the week he decides not to find the endzone. He’s been a machine thus far scoring multiple touchdowns in every game this year. Minnesota has given up a massive amount of yards on the ground this year, so Wisconsin should run over these guys. He’s probably too expensive to use on DS, but I think the 319K price tag is usable in a Hi Cap contest on DJ.
Michael Dyer vs. Georgia 122K DJ 6K DS This is much more of a play on value than matchup because Georgia is no slouch on defense, but Dyer is one of those guys who can put up a 100 yards and 2 TD’s pretty easily. It is tough to find those type of guys at this kind of price, so he is definitely worth a look. He has been getting a ton of carries, so I expect him to come back real strong off the bye week and since he is the biggest weapon Auburn has on offense I expect them to lean on him quite a bit.
Jonas Gray vs. MD 174K DJ 9.9K DS This is kind of a risky play since Gray is still in a time share with Cierre Wood at Notre Dame, but this bruiser gets all the goal line carries and has dream matchup against the lousy Terp rush defense. I might not even be surprised if he gets the majority of the carries, because he has 9 TD’s in the last 6 games. I think the price might be a little too high on DJ (considering he has yet to rush for a 100 yards), but I think the price is fair enough on DS to take shot on him.
h3 .WR’s
Griff Whalen vs. Oregon 97K DJ 8K DS Andrew Luck really likes to spread the ball around, but this game should be a shootout and I really expect Whalen to get a lot of looks. He has put up really consistent reception numbers (which makes him highly appealing with PPR on DS), and WR Chris Owusu and TE Zach Ertz out for the Cardinal, so I think you can expect the 6 receptions per week to be more like 9 or 10 on Saturday. The price is right on both Daily Joust and DS, so I think he’s worth a look.
Jeremy Ebert vs. Rice 152K DJ 11.1K DS He has gone over 100 yards in 3 of the last 4 games and Persa loves to look his way in the passing game. Even though Persa is a little banged up, he’s supposed to go this weekend which is a huge plus for Ebert. Rice has one of the worst pass defenses in the country, so it should be another big day for NW on offense and I expect Ebert to be a big part of it.
Mohammad Sanu vs. Army 140K DJ 11.3K DS What can I say…..I love this guy. He is as good as a WR as there is in the country and if he was at Oklahoma or Alabama he would be a household name. Sanu is a reception magnet hitting double figures in 5 of 9 games. Rutgers is making a switch at QB this week and I don’t think that is a bad thing as the old QB (Nova) didn’t have very good accuracy. You couldn’t ask for a better matchup as Sanu will be athletically superior to the Army DB’s and I would be shocked to see anything but another 10 reception 100 yard game. Touchdowns are not as high as one would think considering his reception and yardage numbers for for the year, but hopefully he can find the end zone this week.
TE
Michael Egnew vs. Texas 47K DJ 7K DS This play is exclusive to DJ because I don’t think I see the value on DS for the price. I never like spending a whole lot on TE’s, so when you can get a guy of Egnew’s caliber for under 50K you have to jump on it. He does have a tough opponent in the Longhorns this week, but the upside he provides is too big to pass on.
Mycheal Rivera vs. Arkansas 36K DJ 3.6K DS Here is a super cheap option on both sites that I think has a good chance to still score you some points. Arkansas should score a lot in this game, so I suspect Tennessee will be playing catch up quite a bit and be passing the ball themselves. He only has 1 TD on the year, so this is a major longshot, but call it a hunch that Rivera pays for his price on Saturday.
DEFENSE
Wisconsin vs. Minnesota 45K I’m not going to lie, I’m a little nervous about this pick because the Gophers offense has been playing better and this game is in Minneapolis. But the value is as good as there is out there at the minimum salary for defense, and Wisconsin still has a lot to play for. There is no doubt they are the superior team and hopefully they can get a defensive TD for me on Saturday.
Florida vs. South Carolina 49K Without Lattimore I think SC is only an average offense. Against anyone not named Kentucky, Connor Shaw hasn’t look very impressive and I think the Gator’s come in highly motivated. Their defense hasn’t been spectacular, but with Demps and Rainey fielding kicks there is always a good shot at a special teams score, so I’ll cross my fingers that we see one this weekend.
On Friday’s I usually give my NFL picks for QB & RB. If you are interested in getting WR, TE, and Team Defenses please check out Thursday’s podcast.
QB
Michael Vick vs. Arizona- This pick shouldn’t surprise many people as the matchup is just too good to pass up. He has not had eye popping numbers this year, but if there ever was a week he was going to look like the 2010 Michael Vick, this is it. Combine that with the fact that his price has dropped a good bit on some of the different sites, I think he is about as much of a sure thing as you’ll see on Sunday.
Sam Bradford vs. Cleveland- I know, unless you are playing in two quarterback leagues you aren’t going to go with a guy who has 0 multi TD games on the season, but here is the thing….he is MUCH better than what the stats say. Sooner or later Bradford IS going to have one, and I think it comes this week. He finally has a legit WR in Lloyd and I’m all about buying guys low and he is as low as you will ever see.
RB
Chris Johnson vs. Carolina- Everybody is all out on CJ and I understand many people will laugh at this pick. The thing is Carolina has given up more fantasy points to opposing RB than any team this season, so if there ever was a week to give him a try this is it. He clearly is not the CJ2K we saw a couple years ago, but everybody has been getting loose vs. the Panthers so for the cheap price that he is on some sites, I think he is worth a look.
Maurice Jones-Drew vs. Indy- MJD has done everything this year but put the ball in the endzone. If he scores 3 or 4 more times than he has this year he might be a top 5 fantasy RB. Indy sucks against the run and considering Blaine Gabbert still looks clueless out there I suspect a heavy dose of MJD. I would be surprised at anything less than 100 yards 1TD and maybe he’ll make up for lack of TD’s earlier in the year and go for two scores.
Sleeper Pick Roy Helu I don’t expect anything near 14 receptions this week, but I do think Shannahan turns the keys over to the young running back. They are playing for next year and they need to see what that have in the young RB. I actually think he fits the Washington 1 cut running game very well and against the Dolphins he could have himself a pretty nice game.
Just a reminder, Daily Joust is hosting a $250 College Basketball Free Roll tonight and has a great “No Rake November” promotion with select high stakes match-ups available with no rake on their site.
Good Luck this weekend and hope to talk with you on Monday.
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db730 Host or the RotoGrinders Daily Fantasy Fix Podcast, Dan Back (fantasy alias DB730), spent 5 years as a sports talk show host in Huntsville, AL & Sarasota, FL, and has a fantasy resume dating back a decade. Along with providing daily content with the Rotogrinders Daily Fantasy Fix Podcast, Dan also keeps tabs on the weekly GPP’s for Rotogrinders.