Dolphins vs. Bills Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Dolphins vs. Bills Odds
| Dolphins Odds | +13.5 |
| Bills Odds | -13.5 |
| Over/Under | 43.5 |
| Date | Sun, Jan. 15 |
| Time | 1:00 p.m. |
| TV | CBS |
Super Wild Card Weekend continues on Sunday, beginning with the Miami Dolphins against the Buffalo Bills at 1:00 p.m. EST. The Bills finished the regular season 13-3 to secure the AFC East division title, with the Dolphins’ 9-8 record being good enough for the final Wild Card position. In this opening round matchup, oddsmakers are anticipating a comfortable win for Buffalo, pricing them as 13.5-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa ruled out
According to Hal Habib, Skylar Thompson has been confirmed as the Dolphins’ starting quarterback on Sunday. Thompson is the team’s third-string signal caller, but will be handed the keys to the offense with Tua Tagovailoa in concussion protocol and Teddy Bridgewater nursing a dislocated pinky.
During the regular season, Thompson completed 60-of-105 pass attempts, throwing one touchdown and three interceptions while taking six sacks. In games in which Thompson threw more than five passes, Miami scored 17 points, 16 points, 21 points, and 11 points. Per Pro Football Focus, nearly half of Thompson’s pass attempts came in the short-game, zero to nine yards from the line of scrimmage.
Expect this offense to be severely limited in the wild-card round, with little hope of approaching 20 points on the scoreboard.
Defense banged up
Linebacker Bradley Chubb returned to practice on Thursday and Friday in a limited capacity and is officially listed as questionable for Sunday’s action. Per Pro Football Focus, Chubb graded significantly better than league average at his position both as a run defender and as a pass rusher.
Following their Week 11 bye, the Dolphins’ defense ranked 17th in EPA overall, 21st in dropback EPA, and eighth in rush EPA. Facing one of the most potent offensive attacks in the NFL, this unit is likely to struggle to get off of the field on a consistent basis.
Key injury news
Leading rusher Raheem Mostert has been ruled out for the wild-card round, due to a broken finger. In his absence, Jeff Wilson is likely to see the bulk of the workload out of the backfield.
Offensive lineman Liam Eichenberg is listed as doubtful after not participating in practice this week. Per Pro Football Focus, Eichenberg graded as one of the worst offensive lineman in football in 2022, both as a run- and pass-blocker. It is possible that the Dolphins see better production from his backup.
Buffalo Bills
Balanced offensive approach
Critiqued by many pundits for being too one-dimensional on offense, Buffalo quieted those concerns late in the regular season with a healthy balance between the pass and run game. Following a Week 9 loss, during which Buffalo had only 48 rushing yards from people not named Josh Allen – this group ranked 6th in EPA overall, 6th in dropback EPA, and 14th in rush EPA. Though far from elite on the ground, their second-half results were much improved from their 24th ranked rush EPA from Week 1 to Week 8. Entering the postseason, Buffalo has developed one of the least predictable offenses in the league. Expect Allen and company to have little trouble putting points on the board this weekend.
Life without Von Miller
After losing Von Miller to a season-ending injury in Week 12, Buffalo’s defense ranked 6th in EPA overall, 7th in dropback EPA, and 9th in rush EPA across their final five games. Yet, it is worth noting that this unit faced only one playoff team in that span – allowing 29 points to the Dolphins in Week 15 with Tagovailoa under center. Facing Thompson on Sunday, this group is likely to put together a dominant performance, but they could experience difficulty against some of the premier offenses in the AFC if they are able to advance to the next round.
Key injury news
Safety Micah Hyde has not played since Week 2, and will be on the sidelines once again in the wild-card round. He finished 2021 graded 5th out of 92 players at his position in defense grade, per Pro Football Focus, but has been limited to 101 defensive snaps in 2022.
Defensive tackle Jordan Phillips is listed as questionable on the final injury report after not practicing during the week. He has not played more than 19 snaps in a game since Week 13.
Dolphins vs. Bills – Picks & Predictions
Facing inferior offensive attacks down the stretch, the Buffalo Bills held their opponents to 10 points, 12 points, 13 points, and 23 points. The Miami Dolphins scored 17 points or fewer in three of the four games in which Skylar Thompson attempted more than five passes during the regular season. Expect Miami to struggle mightily on the offensive side of the ball on Sunday, but to do enough defensively against a familiar division opponent to keep this contest relatively low-scoring – take the under.
PICK: Under 43.5 (-104, Wynn)
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