Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds, Prediction & Pick
Dolphins vs. Chiefs Odds
| Dolphins Odds | +2 |
| Chiefs Odds | -2 |
| Over/Under | 50.5 |
| Date | Sun, Nov. 5 |
| Time | 9:30 a.m. |
| TV | NFL Network |
Sunday’s 12-game NFL slate will begin bright and early for those residing in the United States, with a 9:30 a.m. ET affair between the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs. Entering play, both teams are 6-2 and tied for the top spot in the AFC standings. The winner will take sole possession of the 1-seed in the conference, with a clear path towards hosting the AFC Championship Game in January.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Chiefs as 2-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 50 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa poised for big game
Tua Tagovailoa has struggled in two games this year, both of which were losses against good teams. However, not all good teams are created equal. The Bills and Eagles were both able to have success against Tagovailoa because they were able to get pressure on him, disrupting the rhythm and timing of Miami’s electric offense.
Though Kansas City has a defense that is capable of generating pressure on opposing quarterbacks, they are likely to struggle in this matchup due to how quickly Tagovailoa gets rid of the football. According to Sharp Analytics, the Chiefs get pressure at the sixth-slowest rate of any team in the NFL.
Tagovailoa and company should be able to move the ball well in this spot, even against a talented Kansas City secondary unit.
Dolphins defense faces tough international test
On the season, Miami’s defense ranks near the middle of the pack in most important metrics, including 19th in passing yards allowed per play and 12th in rushing yards allowed per play. The other challenge for the Dolphins is that they do not generate pressure at a high rate on a consistent basis.
In Week 8, Miami ranked 24th out of 32 teams in defensive pressure rate. This season, Patrick Mahomes has a 13-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and ranks third among all qualified quarterbacks in passer rating from a clean pocket. If the Dolphins are unable to get pressure on Mahomes on Sunday, their defense could be in for a long day.
Kansas City Chiefs
What to expect from Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes had his worst game of the season in Week 8 against the Broncos, throwing two interceptions and failing to throw a touchdown in a game for the first time since December 2021. Mahomes was reportedly being administered IV fluids shortly before kickoff to help reduce flu-like symptoms, which likely contributed to his poor play.
Fortunately for Kansas City fans, Mahomes was a full participant at practice this week and appears to have no limitations going into this matchup. We should see a much-improved version of him in Week 9.
Second-level issues for Kansas City defense
In Week 7, linebacker Nick Bolton left early with an injury and was subsequently placed on injured reserve, meaning that he will miss this weekend’s contest against Miami. Bolton is one of the better run defenders in the NFL, ranking 10th out of 77 qualified players at his position per PFF. Last weekend, Denver made an obvious effort to exploit Bolton’s absence, handing the ball to Javonte Williams 27 times in a Broncos upset victory.
This week, linebacker Willie Gay was also limited for the Chiefs due to a back injury. Gay has proven himself as a capable run defender and adequate pass rusher throughout his career, and 2023 has been no different. Gay is sixth on the Chiefs in tackles this fall.
Gay is expected to play on Sunday, but Kansas City is nonetheless thin on reliable talent in the middle of the field in this matchup, with linebacker Leo Chenal being the only member of this unit who is healthy and capable of contributing at a high level.
Dolphins vs. Chiefs – Picks & Predictions
The Dolphins flew to Germany on Tuesday this week, with the Chiefs opting for a late-week international arrival. Multiple times this season, bettors have seen that the team traveling early in the week has had the first-half advantage in the NFL’s international games. Baltimore arrived early in the week in London and held an 18-3 halftime lead over Tennessee. Jacksonville, playing their second consecutive game overseas, had an 11-7 lead against Buffalo at the half despite being a 5.5-point pregame underdog. Miami is getting left tackle Terron Armstead back this week in addition to having a healthy Jalen Ramsey back in the secondary unit. The Dolphins are in a good position to take a lead into the half on Sunday against the Chiefs.
PICK: Dolphins (+1.5) – First Half (-130, Fanatics Sportsbook)