Miami Dolphins vs. Philadelphia Eagles Odds, Prediction & Pick
Dolphins vs. Eagles Odds
| Dolphins Odds | +3 |
| Eagles Odds | -3 |
| Over/Under | 52.5 |
| Date | Sun, Oct. 22 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
This evening, NFL fans will be treated to a marquee matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday Night Football. Entering play, both the Dolphins and Eagles are 5-1, tied for the best record in the league through six weeks this season.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Eagles as 3-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 52.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Miami Dolphins
What to expect from Tua Tagovailoa
From a clean pocket, Tua Tagovailoa leads all qualified quarterbacks in passer rating this season. He has completed 78.1% of his pass attempts in such situations, throwing for 13 touchdowns and averaging 10.3 yards per attempt. Tagovailoa has been far less impressive when under pressure, ranking 29th out of 35 signal callers in passer rating. On 209 such dropbacks, Tagovailoa has completed only 40.5% of his pass attempts, throwing for one touchdown and averaging 6.4 yards per attempt.
Philadelphia’s defense has consistently generated pressure on opposing quarterbacks this fall, finishing 5th in pressure rate in Week 6, 5th in pressure rate in Week 5, and 4th in pressure rate in Week 4. If the Miami offensive line cannot protect Tagovailoa tonight, the Dolphins’ offense could struggle – at least by their standards.
Vic Fangio’s defense off to mediocre start in 2023
Through six games, Miami’s defense ranks 19th in yards allowed per play – 18th against the run and 19th against the pass. Only four teams are currently allowing more first downs per game than the Dolphins – none of which have a winning record, and two of which are tied for the second-worst record in the NFL.
On Sunday, cornerback Jalen Ramsey will once again be on the sidelines, leaving Eli Apple and Xavien Howard exposed out wide against two of the better receivers in the league. According to PFF, Apple ranks 94th out of 108 players at his position in coverage grade this fall. Howard ranks 90th, despite Miami playing four lackluster offenses in their first six games.
This is Miami’s toughest test since facing Buffalo – a team that scored 48 points against them in Week 4. Vic Fangio is going to have his hands full in this matchup.
Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts leads balanced Philadelphia offense
Heading into Week 7, Philadelphia ranks 8th in rushing yards per play and 7th in passing yards per play on offense, sustaining what has been one of the league’s most balanced attacks in 2023. Advanced metrics have been kind to Jalen Hurts and company as well, with the offense ranking 8th in EPA/play and 5th in success rate so far this season.
Notably, the Eagles have the second-best rushing success rate of any offense in the NFL through six games, which should play well against a Miami defense that ranks 27th in rush success rate this year. Even in windy conditions, Philadelphia should have little trouble moving the football in this contest.
Can Philadelphia’s defense slow down the NFL’s best offense?
Miami has been the best offensive team in the NFL so far this year, and it has not been particularly close. The Dolphins are averaging 8.0 yards per play offensively, which is 2.0 yards more than the next-best team. The difference between Miami and the second-ranked team in terms of yards per play is greater than the difference between the second-ranked team and the league’s worst offense.
Nevertheless, it is worth noting that the Dolphins have played the Chargers, Patriots, Broncos, Bills, Giants, and Panthers so far – five of which rank 15th or worse in defensive EPA/play, four of which rank 27th or worse in defensive EPA/play.
The Eagles have been mediocre defensively to begin the new campaign, but they still rank 9th in success rate overall, and in the top 12 against both the run and the pass. If Philadelphia can get consistent pressure on Tagovailoa tonight, they should be able to hold the Dolphins to their lowest offensive output since Miami lost to Buffalo in Week 4.
Dolphins vs. Eagles – Picks & Predictions
Simply, this is not a great matchup for the Miami Dolphins tonight against the Philadelphia Eagles. Tua Tagovailoa has been the NFL’s best signal caller from a clean pocket, but he has been among the worst when under pressure, completing only 40.5% of his pass attempts for 6.4 yards per attempt, with a 1-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Eagles have ranked in the top five in defensive pressure rate in each of the last three weeks and tonight have the added benefit of playing in windy conditions, which makes passing even more difficult.
Philadelphia will be without safety Reed Blankenship on Sunday Night Football, but they should be able to overcome his absence if the front seven can disrupt the rhythm and timing of the Miami passing attack. There are multiple pathways to victory for the Eagles in this matchup, making them a worthwhile risk in this highly-anticipated affair.
PICK: Eagles -3 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)