Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Dolphins vs. Jets Odds
| Dolphins Odds | -9.5 |
| Jets Odds | +9.5 |
| Over/Under | 41 |
| Date | Fri, Nov. 24 |
| Time | 3:00 p.m. |
| TV | Prime Video |
This afternoon, the NFL will play its first Black Friday game in league history, featuring Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins against Tim Boyle and the New York Jets. Entering play, Miami owns sole possession of the AFC East division, three games in front of New York.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Dolphins as 9.5-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 40.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Miami Dolphins
Purdy getting the ball out quickly
Following an electric start to 2023, Tua Tagovailoa has fallen off considerably in recent weeks. From Week 1 to Week 6, Tagovailoa ranked 2nd among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/play and led the NFL in success rate. Since Week 7, Tagovailoa ranks 17th in EPA/play and 23rd in success rate.
Miami has three losses this season and all three of those defeats came against teams that were able to get pressure on Tagovailoa – the Bills, Eagles, and Chiefs. Tagovailoa ranks 2nd in the NFL this year in passer rating from a clean pocket compared to 27th in passer rating when under pressure. Protection will be a major key for the Dolphins offense on Friday against a capable Jets pass rush.
Jalen Ramsey making a difference for Dolphins defense
Since cornerback Jalen Ramsey returned to the field in Week 8, Miami’s defense has improved significantly relative to their early season production. From Week 1 to Week 7, with Ramsey off of the field, Miami’s defense ranked 23rd in EPA/play and 27th in success rate. From Week 8 to Week 11, with Ramsey back on the field, the Dolphins defense ranked 3rd in EPA/play and 4th in success rate.
Miami has also been able to gradually increase their defensive pressure rate in recent weeks, jumping from 22.7% in Week 8 to 39.3% in Week 11. This unit has an impressive collection of talent, and their production continues to improve as their core contributors get healthier.
New York Jets
What to expect from Tim Boyle
Tim Boyle, who has 120 career pass attempts in the NFL, will start for the Jets on Friday. Of his 120 pass attempts, 94 of them came in 2021 with the Lions. During that stretch, Boyle posted a 3-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. From Week 16 to Week 18 that year, Boyle ranked 14th in EPA/play and 18th in success rate among all quarterbacks with at least 50 offensive snaps. Though he is highly unlikely to be anything more than a band-aid for an ailing New York offense, there is at least some level of upside with Boyle under center that this offense did not have with Zach Wilson across the last month.
Michael Carter listed as DOUBTFUL
According to Dennis Waszak Jr., cornerback Michael Carter is listed as doubtful ahead of kickoff after not practicing this week due to a hamstring injury. Carter’s absence is a significant loss for the New York secondary unit for the second week in a row. Per PFF, Carter ranks 28th among 108 cornerbacks this season in run defense grade and 44th in coverage grade. Last week, New York allowed Josh Allen to throw three touchdown passes through the air with Carter not on the field.
Dolphins vs. Jets – Picks & Predictions
Since Week 7, Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami offense rank 26th in offensive EPA/play and 19th in success rate. The Jets are starting Tim Boyle, who went undrafted out of Eastern Kentucky in 2018. In addition to both of these offenses struggling, Miami’s defense has played at an elite level since cornerback Jalen Ramsey returned to the field in Week 8. If any of Mekhi Becton, Duane Brown, or Billy Turner end up ruled out for New York’s offensive line this afternoon, Boyle is going to have very little time to get rid of the football, and Breece Hall is going to have very little room to run on the ground. The under is the smart play here.
PICK: Under 41 (-120, Fanatics Sportsbook)