DRAFT NBA Value Watch: Friday, January 11th

Aaron Hendrix will be bringing Premium subscribers his tiers for head-to-head, three-man, four-man (tournaments), and six-man drafts on DRAFT. Included will be strategy discussion and options for the day’s slate.

Friday, January 11th

Good afternoon Grinders! Welcome to our NBA content for DRAFT Premium. Each day, I will go over the NBA slate with tier rankings for head-to-head, three-man, four-man (tournaments) and six man drafts.

A couple notes to remember about DRAFT contests. One, there is no salary cap so you’re not worried about fitting players in on a budget. Raw fantasy points is what matters most, not the popular point per dollar. Second, while there is no late swap, if a player is ruled out, you will be able to swap them out. For more information on how this works, read the DRAFT Swap Rules Page – for this reason you can take some marginal chances in the later rounds on players that are questionable to play.

View the DRAFT NBA Scoring System here – last, roster requirements are one center, two forwards, and two guards. All analysis and rankings will be based on that.

One key note about this article. It is projection based and the analysis will be minimal. It is my feeling the best way to approach DRAFT drafts is to rely on a mathematical approach and to draft the best projected players with some adjustments made for positional scarcity – I will account for this scarcity in my rankings. If there is a question you have on how to interpret the rankings, please leave a comment on the article or shoot me a DM on Twitter and I’ll be happy to answer it for you.

The rankings are based on projected values. To get the best feel for the industry, each day I run a comparison of major DFS sites and come up with a average projected value from these sites. These values are how I determine my rankings. I’ve included the overall unadjusted rankings at the end so you can see how players rank in terms of overall fantasy point projection.

Author’s Note – DRAFT does not always utilize the typical position listed for a player in projections. I do my best to go through their lists each morning to make sure the positions are correct, but there is a chance I may miss some. I always include additional players in the positional rankings to account for this as well as injuries and late scratches. The article will not be updated after the initial posting, but if you have any questions please feel free to leave them in the comments or send me a message on Twitter and I’ll be happy to answer them.

Slate Overview

This data is copied from the NBA First Look from Notorious.

Road Team Home Team Vegas Line Over/Under Away Total Home Total Game Time (ET)
Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers PHI -12.0 231.5 109.8 121.8 7:00 PM
Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards MIL 5.5 231.0 118.3 112.8 7:00 PM
Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks IND 9.0 219.0 114.0 105.0 7:30 PM
Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors TOR -9.5 222.5 106.5 116.0 7:30 PM
Cleveland Cavaliers at Houston Rockets HOU -13.0 218.0 102.5 115.5 8:00 PM
Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves MIN -4.5 222.0 108.8 113.3 8:00 PM
Charlotte Hornets at Portland Trail Blazers POR -6.0 222.0 108.0 114.0 10:00 PM
Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz UTA -8.0 216.0 104.0 112.0 10:00 PM
Chicago Bulls at Golden State Warriors GS -15.0 220.5 102.8 117.8 10:30 PM

The first pick is a pretty massive advantage today as James Harden is projected well above any other player today. Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Joel Embiid round out the top five. Forward was thin (as usual) today so adjustments were made to account for that.

Here are today’s rankings…

Head-to-Head Rankings

Ten players total to be drafted.

James Harden HOU CLE G1
Kevin Durant GSW CHI F1
Bradley Beal WAS MIL G2
Kawhi Leonard TOR BKN F2
Ben Simmons PHI ATL G3
Domantas Sabonis IND NYK F3
Damian Lillard POR CHA G4
John Collins ATL PHI F4
Karl-Anthony Towns MIN DAL C1
Joel Embiid PHI ATL C2

Three-Person Rankings

Fifteen players total to be drafted.

James Harden HOU CLE G1
Kevin Durant GSW CHI F1
Karl-Anthony Towns MIN DAL C1
Joel Embiid PHI ATL C2
Bradley Beal WAS MIL G2
Kawhi Leonard TOR BKN F2
Ben Simmons PHI ATL G3
Damian Lillard POR CHA G4
Stephen Curry GSW CHI G5
Domantas Sabonis IND NYK F3
John Collins ATL PHI F4
Draymond Green GSW CHI F5
Rudy Gobert UTA LAL C3
Kemba Walker CHA POR G6
Jimmy Butler PHI ATL F6

Four-Person Rankings

Twenty players total to be drafted.

James Harden HOU CLE G1
Kevin Durant GSW CHI F1
Karl-Anthony Towns MIN DAL C1
Joel Embiid PHI ATL C2
Bradley Beal WAS MIL G2
Kawhi Leonard TOR BKN F2
Ben Simmons PHI ATL G3
Damian Lillard POR CHA G4
Stephen Curry GSW CHI G5
Rudy Gobert UTA LAL C3
Domantas Sabonis IND NYK F3
John Collins ATL PHI F4
Kemba Walker CHA POR G6
Victor Oladipo IND NYK G7
Draymond Green GSW CHI F5
Jimmy Butler PHI ATL F6
Khris Middleton MIL WAS F7
Jusuf Nurkic POR CHA C4
Donovan Mitchell UTA LAL G8
Joe Ingles UTA LAL F8

Six-Person Rankings

Thirty players total to be drafted.

James Harden HOU CLE G1
Kevin Durant GSW CHI F1
Karl-Anthony Towns MIN DAL C1
Joel Embiid PHI ATL C2
Bradley Beal WAS MIL G2
Kawhi Leonard TOR BKN F2
Ben Simmons PHI ATL G3
Damian Lillard POR CHA G4
Stephen Curry GSW CHI G5
Rudy Gobert UTA LAL C3
Domantas Sabonis IND NYK F3
John Collins ATL PHI F4
Kemba Walker CHA POR G6
Victor Oladipo IND NYK G7
Jusuf Nurkic POR CHA C4
Clint Capela HOU CLE C5
Donovan Mitchell UTA LAL G8
Draymond Green GSW CHI F5
Jimmy Butler PHI ATL F6
Khris Middleton MIL WAS F7
Kyle Lowry TOR BKN G9
Luka Doncic DAL MIN G10
Joe Ingles UTA LAL F8
Eric Bledsoe MIL WAS G11
Otto Porter WAS MIL F9
Pascal Siakam TOR BKN F10
Kyle Kuzma LAL UTA F11
Serge Ibaka TOR BKN C6
D’Angelo Russell BKN TOR G12
Lauri Markkanen CHI GSW F12

Eight-Person Rankings

Forty players total to be drafted.

James Harden HOU CLE G1
Kevin Durant GSW CHI F1
Karl-Anthony Towns MIN DAL C1
Joel Embiid PHI ATL C2
Bradley Beal WAS MIL G2
Kawhi Leonard TOR BKN F2
Ben Simmons PHI ATL G3
Damian Lillard POR CHA G4
Stephen Curry GSW CHI G5
Rudy Gobert UTA LAL C3
Domantas Sabonis IND NYK F3
John Collins ATL PHI F4
Kemba Walker CHA POR G6
Victor Oladipo IND NYK G7
Jusuf Nurkic POR CHA C4
Clint Capela HOU CLE C5
Donovan Mitchell UTA LAL G8
Draymond Green GSW CHI F5
Jimmy Butler PHI ATL F6
Khris Middleton MIL WAS F7
Kyle Lowry TOR BKN G9
Serge Ibaka TOR BKN C6
Luka Doncic DAL MIN G10
Joe Ingles UTA LAL F8
Eric Bledsoe MIL WAS G11
Otto Porter WAS MIL F9
D’Angelo Russell BKN TOR G12
Kris Dunn CHI GSW G13
Pascal Siakam TOR BKN F10
Kyle Kuzma LAL UTA F11
Klay Thompson GSW CHI G14
C.J. McCollum POR CHA G15
DeAndre Jordan DAL MIN C7
Lauri Markkanen CHI GSW F12
Wendell Carter Jr. CHI GSW F13
Thaddeus Young IND NYK F14
Brandon Ingram LAL UTA F15
Jeff Teague MIN DAL G16
Tristan Thompson CLE HOU C8
Trevor Ariza WAS MIL F16

Overall Positional Rankings

Guards

James Harden HOU CLE G1
Bradley Beal WAS MIL G2
Ben Simmons PHI ATL G3
Damian Lillard POR CHA G4
Stephen Curry GSW CHI G5
Kemba Walker CHA POR G6
Victor Oladipo IND NYK G7
Donovan Mitchell UTA LAL G8
Kyle Lowry TOR BKN G9
Luka Doncic DAL MIN G10
Eric Bledsoe MIL WAS G11
D’Angelo Russell BKN TOR G12
Kris Dunn CHI GSW G13
Klay Thompson GSW CHI G14
C.J. McCollum POR CHA G15
Jeff Teague MIN DAL G16
Zach LaVine CHI GSW G17
Trae Young ATL PHI G18
Lonzo Ball LAL UTA G19
Malcolm Brogdon MIL WAS G20
Derrick Rose MIN DAL G21
Emmanuel Mudiay NYK IND G22
Jeremy Lamb CHA POR G23
Austin Rivers HOU CLE G24
Tomas Satoransky WAS MIL G25

Forwards

Kevin Durant GSW CHI F1
Kawhi Leonard TOR BKN F2
Domantas Sabonis IND NYK F3
John Collins ATL PHI F4
Draymond Green GSW CHI F5
Jimmy Butler PHI ATL F6
Khris Middleton MIL WAS F7
Joe Ingles UTA LAL F8
Otto Porter WAS MIL F9
Pascal Siakam TOR BKN F10
Kyle Kuzma LAL UTA F11
Lauri Markkanen CHI GSW F12
Wendell Carter Jr. CHI GSW F13
Thaddeus Young IND NYK F14
Brandon Ingram LAL UTA F15
Trevor Ariza WAS MIL F16
Derrick Favors UTA LAL F17
Harrison Barnes DAL MIN F18
Andrew Wiggins MIN DAL F19
Noah Vonleh NYK IND F20
Al-Farouq Aminu POR CHA F21
Tim Hardaway Jr. NYK IND F22
Marvin Williams CHA POR F23
Bojan Bogdanovic IND NYK F24
Bobby Portis CHI GSW F25

Centers

Karl-Anthony Towns MIN DAL C1
Joel Embiid PHI ATL C2
Rudy Gobert UTA LAL C3
Jusuf Nurkic POR CHA C4
Clint Capela HOU CLE C5
Serge Ibaka TOR BKN C6
DeAndre Jordan DAL MIN C7
Tristan Thompson CLE HOU C8
Enes Kanter NYK IND C9
JaVale McGee LAL UTA C10
Brook Lopez MIL WAS C11
Dewayne Dedmon ATL PHI C12

Unadjusted Overall Rankings

James Harden HOU CLE G1
Kevin Durant GSW CHI F1
Karl-Anthony Towns MIN DAL C1
Joel Embiid PHI ATL C2
Bradley Beal WAS MIL G2
Kawhi Leonard TOR BKN F2
Ben Simmons PHI ATL G3
Damian Lillard POR CHA G4
Stephen Curry GSW CHI G5
Rudy Gobert UTA LAL C3
Domantas Sabonis IND NYK F3
Kemba Walker CHA POR G6
Victor Oladipo IND NYK G7
Jusuf Nurkic POR CHA C4
Clint Capela HOU CLE C5
Donovan Mitchell UTA LAL G8
John Collins ATL PHI F4
Kyle Lowry TOR BKN G9
Serge Ibaka TOR BKN C6
Draymond Green GSW CHI F5
Jimmy Butler PHI ATL F6
Khris Middleton MIL WAS F7
Luka Doncic DAL MIN G10
Joe Ingles UTA LAL F8
Eric Bledsoe MIL WAS G11
Otto Porter WAS MIL F9
D’Angelo Russell BKN TOR G12
Kris Dunn CHI GSW G13
Pascal Siakam TOR BKN F10
Kyle Kuzma LAL UTA F11
Klay Thompson GSW CHI G14
C.J. McCollum POR CHA G15
Jeff Teague MIN DAL G16
Zach LaVine CHI GSW G17
Trae Young ATL PHI G18
DeAndre Jordan DAL MIN C7
Lauri Markkanen CHI GSW F12
Tristan Thompson CLE HOU C8
Wendell Carter Jr. CHI GSW F13
Thaddeus Young IND NYK F14
Brandon Ingram LAL UTA F15
Trevor Ariza WAS MIL F16
Enes Kanter NYK IND C9
Lonzo Ball LAL UTA G19
Derrick Favors UTA LAL F17
Malcolm Brogdon MIL WAS G20
Derrick Rose MIN DAL G21
JaVale McGee LAL UTA C10
Harrison Barnes DAL MIN F18
Andrew Wiggins MIN DAL F19
Emmanuel Mudiay NYK IND G22
Noah Vonleh NYK IND F20
Al-Farouq Aminu POR CHA F21
Brook Lopez MIL WAS C11
Jeremy Lamb CHA POR G23
Tim Hardaway Jr. NYK IND F22
Dewayne Dedmon ATL PHI C12
Austin Rivers HOU CLE G24
Tomas Satoransky WAS MIL G25
Marvin Williams CHA POR F23
Bojan Bogdanovic IND NYK F24
Bobby Portis CHI GSW F25

Meet the Experts Content Posting Times

About the Author

  • Aaron Hendrix (thehazyone)

  • Aaron Hendrix is a former professional poker player who made the transition from season long fantasy sports to DFS in October of 2014. He used to cover poker tournaments for a living until stepping into his current role at RotoGrinders. He can be found on Twitter at @aaronhendrix

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