Draft NFL Premium: Best Ball Value Watch

by Mike Beers (beerswater) Last Updated 2017-07-04 14:30:32 Premium Content Part of the product Core4

NFL Best Ball expert, Mike Beers, will examine trends in average draft position (ADP) and highlight what he believes are currently some of the best and worst values in best ball leagues. He’ll also share one of his favorite best ball drafts to wrap up this weekly Draft NFL Premium series.

Best Ball Value Watch: Default Ranking Bias

With best ball less than two weeks old on the Draft platform, it’s arbitrage time for players who have done their homework (i.e. you). Keep one eye on this weekly series, and the other on the RotoGrinders Draft ADP Page, and you will be a step ahead of the crowd. Make sure to also check out this introductory guide to Best Ball strategy.

Right now, ADP is subject to a self-reinforcing bias that befalls virtually all fantasy providers at the beginning of the season. This isn’t a secret, but I haven’t seen a name for the phenomenon in this context, so I’m going to call it Default Ranking Bias. When you open the draft room for the first time, the list of available players defaults to sorted by ADP [footnote: unless you have set your own pre-draft rankings, which I highly recommend]. That list has a powerful influence on the flow of the draft. It’s not always easy to separate price from value, and seeing players at the top of the ADP list can inflate their value in our minds. Conversely, certain players can get buried down the list, simply by virtue of having started out low on the list (out of sight, out of mind, they say). This problem persists until enough smart drafters have the presence to ignore the inflated prices and start buying up the undervalued players. We are those smart drafters, and until the “market” follows suit, we will reap the rewards.

OK, that’s enough pop psychology – let’s get down to “Must Draft” and “Must Avoid” picks for this week.