Draft NFL Premium: Value Watch - Week 13
Each week, Justin Van Zuiden will list the players he is overweight (heavier exposure than the field) and underweight (lower exposure than the field) on. Dominate your DRAFT drafts with this cheat sheet from one of the best in daily fantasy sports!
Players I Am Overweight On
Tom Brady – If you are playing a head to head or three man draft, take advantage of DRAFT pre-rankings having Brady listed fourth. He has done nothing to be knocked down, and Brady will be a steal if your opponent(s) take someone else. This is primarily for smaller fields, as he will still get taken too early for my liking in the larger ones.
Derek Carr – He’s labeled as the 12th best quarterback on the board, just ahead of the now benched Eli Manning. Carr faces off against Manning’s Giants this week, and the Giants have packed it in for the year. Without Janoris Jenkins in the secondary, the Giants have little talent to show down the Raiders. Carr’s performance last week was also very encouraging. Carr is a great way to round out your lineup, and I will undoubtedly be taking my quarterback in the final round in larger field games this week.
Leonard Fournette – There’s a ton to love here. Fournette is practicing in full, suggesting he is healthy for the first time in a while. Second, the game flow should be fantastic with the Jaguars favored by ten over a weak Colts squad. Third, DRAFT has Fournette ranked below the likes of Jamaal Williams and Kenyan Drake. That’s just ludicrous. Buy, buy, buy.
Jordan Howard – He’s also ranked far too low, and the Bears could also see a positive game flow this week. They check in as home favorites over the 49ers, and these are the types of games where the Bears ride Howard for 25+ carries. Fire him up with confidence in Week 13.
Mike Evans – Daily fantasy players are giving up on Mike Evans, and there is sound reasoning behind it. He hasn’t scored in a month. He hasn’t topped 100 receiving yards all year. Ryan Fitzpatrick has struggled. Everything says to steer clear, but Evans’ talent is going to take over one of these weeks. The Packers allowed a massive game to Antonio Brown and the Steelers’ pass catchers last week, and Evans could be in line for his best game of the season. With Jameis Winston likely returning, the upside is even greater. Now is the time to buy low on DRAFT.
Brandin Cooks – Remember, Tom Brady is going to do Tom Brady things. The DRAFT projections have the Patriots far too low this week as far as the passing game goes. Use that to your advantage. Cooks is warming up as the weather gets cold, and he is developing nice rapport with Brady as the clear #1 wide receiver on this team.
DeAndre Hopkins – If I go for a receiver in the early rounds this week, it will be Hopkins. He has the best individual matchup of the bunch, and the Titans have nobody capable of slowing him down. Hopkins is a target monster who played well against the Ravens on Monday. Even with Tom Savage at quarterback, Hopkins is as matchup-proof as they come. The easier matchup this week is just icing on the cake.
Players I Am Underweight On
Philip Rivers – I like Rivers this week, but let’s pump the brakes on him a little bit. The DRAFT app has him ranked higher than Tom Brady, and that’s just way too high. With the Chargers sitting as two touchdown favorites in this game, I don’t expect Rivers to have to throw the ball 40 times. Don’t overdraft him.
Matt Ryan – He is the third highest projected quarterback and has to face a tough Vikings secondary on the road. Xavier Rhodes will be motivated to shut down Julio Jones after getting torched by Marvin Jones on Thanksgiving. Ryan is another guy that I just think is rated too highly in Week 13.
Alvin Kamara – He has undoubtedly been great, but he is projected as the top running back on the board. His current level of production is not sustainable. Nobody playing on 50-60% of the snaps can hammer out 20+ fantasy points every week. His surge has reminded me of the early season version of Chris Thompson, only better. I expect regression to hit soon, and we saw it from Mark Ingram last week. This could be the week for Kamara.
LeSean McCoy – Abandon ship! I am not going anywhere near McCoy given his numbers over the last month and a half. Teams are stacking the box against the Bills and daring them to try and move the ball through the air. McCoy’s numbers have suffered as a result, and he is off my board in Week 13.
Dion Lewis – The Bills tend to struggle against the run, but they looked much better last week against the Chiefs, and we still don’t know how snaps will shake out in New England’s backfield. Handle this group like hot coals. I will almost certainly avoid Lewis despite the matchup. This remains a squad that belongs to Tom Brady.
Julio Jones – He will be one of the first players off the board. I don’t draft guys in the first round when they will be shadowed by Xavier Rhodes. Despite Rhodes’ poor performance on Thanksgiving, he remains one of the top corners in the league. Let someone else overdraft Jones coming off his first monster game of the year.
Marvin Jones – The other Jones will certainly garner plenty of attention after last week’s incredible performance. I wouldn’t expect a similar outing against another elite pass defense this week. We have seen this movie from Jones before, and I’m not falling for the trap.
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