DRAFT NFL Value Watch: Week 3

Aaron Hendrix will be bringing Premium subscribers his tiers the various drafts on DRAFT ranging from head-to-head to 10 person drafts. Included will be strategy discussion and options for the day’s slate.

Week 3

Welcome to the DRAFT NFL Value Watch!

A couple notes to remember about DRAFT contests. One, there is no salary cap so you’re not worried about fitting players in on a budget. Raw fantasy points is what matters most, not the popular point per dollar. Second, while there is no late swap, if a player is ruled out, you will be able to swap them out. For more information on how this works, read the DRAFT Swap Rules Page – for this reason you can take some marginal chances in the later rounds on players that are questionable to play. DRAFT scoring is fairly standard football scoring with 1/2 point per reception. You can view the scoring rule by clicking on this link – Draft NFL Scoring. All analysis and rankings will be based on that.

One note about my rankings. They are typically made based on projected values. To get the best feel for the industry, each week I run a comparison of major DFS sites and come up with a average projected value from these sites. These values are how I determine my rankings.

Slate Overview

This data is copied from the NFL First Look from Notorious.

Road Team Home Team Vegas Line Over/Under Date Time Stadium
Jets at Browns CLE-3.0 39.5 Thursday 8:20 PM FirstEnergy Stadium
Bills at Vikings MIN-16.0 41.0 Sunday 1:00 PM U.S. Bank Stadium
Bengals at Panthers CAR-3.0 43.5 Sunday 1:00 PM Bank of America Stadium
Broncos at Ravens BAL-5.0 43.5 Sunday 1:00 PM M&T Bank Stadium
Packers at Redskins GB -3.0 45.5 Sunday 1:00 PM FedExField
Colts at Eagles PHI-6.5 47.5 Sunday 1:00 PM Lincoln Financial Field
Saints at Falcons ATL-3.0 53.0 Sunday 1:00 PM Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Giants at Texans HOU-6.0 41.5 Sunday 1:00 PM NRG Stadium
Raiders at Dolphins MIA-3.0 43.5 Sunday 1:00 PM Hard Rock Stadium
49ers at Chiefs KC -6.5 56.5 Sunday 1:00 PM Arrowhead Stadium
Titans at Jaguars JAC-6.5 39.5 Sunday 1:00 PM TIAA Bank Field
Chargers at Rams LAR-7.0 48.0 Sunday 4:05 PM Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Bears at Cardinals CHI-6.0 37.5 Sunday 4:25 PM University of Phoenix Stadium
Cowboys at Seahawks SEA-1.0 41.5 Sunday 4:25 PM CenturyLink Field
Patriots at Lions NE -6.5 52.0 Sunday 8:20 PM Ford Field
Steelers at Buccaneers PIT-1.0 53.5 Monday 8:15 PM Raymond James Stadium

DVOA Matchups

Note: The DVOA rankings in this chart are for the defense listed in the “Matchup” column. These rankings can help identify favorable matchups for the offense listed in the first column.

Offense Spread Implied Total Matchup DVOA vs. PASS vs. RUN vs. RB-PA vs. WR1 vs. WR2 vs. TEs
Chiefs -6.5 31.5 San Francisco 21 24 22 11 18 14 32
Patriots -6.5 29.3 at Detroit 26 30 27 15 32 22 27
Vikings -16.0 28.5 Buffalo 28 32 32 25 19 29 24
Falcons -3.0 28.0 New Orleans 31 17 31 26 30 32 7
Rams -7.0 27.5 L.A. Chargers 27 21 20 17 31 17 3
Steelers -1.0 27.3 at Tampa Bay 32 29 28 27 25 20 21
Eagles -6.5 27.0 Indianapolis 24 23 16 20 17 24 22
Buccaneers + 1.0 26.3 Pittsburgh 6 18 21 7 21 27 20
Saints + 3.0 25.0 at Atlanta 14 26 15 10 11 23 4
49ers + 6.5 25.0 at Kansas City 30 31 29 32 15 6 31
Packers -3.0 24.3 at Washington 10 13 4 4 6 7 9
Ravens -5.0 24.3 Denver 7 11 24 18 28 8 29
Texans -6.0 23.8 N.Y. Giants 18 28 14 9 26 3 5
Dolphins -3.0 23.3 Oakland 29 27 18 29 14 21 2
Panthers -3.0 23.3 Cincinnati 12 14 12 23 5 12 15
Jaguars -6.5 23.0 Tennessee 20 25 25 5 29 26 1
Lions + 6.5 22.8 New England 16 20 19 22 27 10 10
Bears -6.0 21.8 at Arizona 25 19 30 31 23 18 28
Redskins + 3.0 21.3 Green Bay 11 22 17 24 24 16 17
Browns -3.0 21.3 N.Y. Jets 4 7 2 3 8 11 6
Seahawks -1.0 21.3 Dallas 22 15 9 19 16 5 25
Chargers + 7.0 20.5 at Los Angeles 17 1 3 8 9 1 14
Colts + 6.5 20.5 at Philadelphia 2 4 10 12 13 31 13
Bengals + 3.0 20.3 at Carolina 15 16 26 16 7 30 26
Raiders + 3.0 20.3 at Miami 5 5 1 14 2 2 12
Cowboys + 1.0 20.3 at Seattle 23 12 13 28 3 19 11
Broncos + 5.0 19.3 at Baltimore 1 3 7 2 4 4 19
Jets + 3.0 18.3 at Cleveland 8 6 8 30 10 15 8
Giants + 6.0 17.8 at Houston 19 8 23 13 1 25 30
Titans + 6.5 16.5 at Jacksonville 9 10 11 6 22 13 16
Cardinals + 6.0 15.8 Chicago 13 9 5 1 20 28 18
Bills + 16.0 12.5 at Minnesota 3 2 6 21 12 9 23

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About the Author

thehazyone
Aaron Hendrix (thehazyone)

Aaron Hendrix is a former professional poker player who made the transition from season long fantasy sports to DFS in October of 2014. He used to cover poker tournaments for a living until stepping into his current role at RotoGrinders. He can be found on Twitter at @aaronhendrix