DRAFT NFL Value Watch: Week 4

Aaron Hendrix will be bringing Premium subscribers his tiers the various drafts on DRAFT ranging from head-to-head to 10 person drafts. Included will be strategy discussion and options for the day’s slate.

Week 4

Author’s Note – Analysis will be posted later tonight. I have put on my Tier Rankings so you can get started on your drafts. Feel free to ask any questions you might have in the comments section below

Welcome to the DRAFT NFL Value Watch!

A couple notes to remember about DRAFT contests. One, there is no salary cap so you’re not worried about fitting players in on a budget. Raw fantasy points is what matters most, not the popular point per dollar. Second, while there is no late swap, if a player is ruled out, you will be able to swap them out. For more information on how this works, read the DRAFT Swap Rules Page – for this reason you can take some marginal chances in the later rounds on players that are questionable to play. DRAFT scoring is fairly standard football scoring with 1/2 point per reception. You can view the scoring rule by clicking on this link – Draft NFL Scoring. All analysis and rankings will be based on that.

One note about my rankings. They are typically made based on projected values. To get the best feel for the industry, each week I run a comparison of major DFS sites and come up with a average projected value from these sites. These values are how I determine my rankings.

Slate Overview

This data is copied from the NFL First Look from Notorious.

Road Team Home Team Vegas Line Over/Under Date Time Stadium
Vikings at Rams LAR-6.5 49.5 Thursday 8:20 PM Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Bills at Packers GB -10.0 45.0 Sunday 1:00 PM Lambeau Field
Bengals at Falcons ATL-5.5 51.0 Sunday 1:00 PM Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Lions at Cowboys DAL-3.0 43.5 Sunday 1:00 PM AT&T Stadium
Texans at Colts IND-1.5 47.0 Sunday 1:00 PM Lucas Oil Stadium
Dolphins at Patriots NE -7.0 47.5 Sunday 1:00 PM Gillette Stadium
Jets at Jaguars JAC-7.5 38.5 Sunday 1:00 PM TIAA Bank Field
Eagles at Titans PHI-4.0 41.0 Sunday 1:00 PM Nissan Stadium
Buccaneers at Bears CHI-3.0 46.5 Sunday 1:00 PM Soldier Field
Browns at Raiders OAK-2.5 45.0 Sunday 4:05 PM Oakland–Alameda County Coliseum
Seahawks at Cardinals SEA-3.0 38.5 Sunday 4:05 PM University of Phoenix Stadium
Saints at Giants NO -3.5 50.0 Sunday 4:25 PM MetLife Stadium
49ers at Chargers LAC-10.0 46.5 Sunday 4:25 PM StubHub Center
Ravens at Steelers PIT-3.0 51.0 Sunday 8:20 PM Heinz Field
Chiefs at Broncos KC -5.0 56.0 Monday 8:15 PM Broncos Stadium at Mile High

DVOA Matchups (Updated through Week 3)

Note: The DVOA rankings in this chart are for the defense listed in the “Matchup” column. These rankings can help identify favorable matchups for the offense listed in the first column.

Offense Spread Implied Total Matchup DVOA DAVE vs. PASS vs. RUN vs. RB-PA vs. WR1 vs. WR2 vs. WR3 vs. TEs
Chiefs -5.0 30.5 at Denver 16 14 19 5 17 28 17 22 29
Chargers -10.0 28.3 San Francisco 25 25 29 8 19 18 22 26 30
Falcons -5.5 28.3 Cincinnati 15 17 13 16 27 4 20 12 14
Rams -6.5 28.0 Minnesota 10 5 9 12 29 7 12 2 24
Packers -10.0 27.5 Buffalo 22 27 22 14 15 13 8 32 23
Patriots -7.0 27.3 Miami 3 8 7 6 22 1 21 1 12
Steelers -3.0 27.0 Baltimore 5 3 6 9 4 9 4 17 9
Saints -3.5 26.8 at N.Y. Giants 24 28 24 23 5 27 13 29 17
Broncos + 5.0 25.5 Kansas City 32 32 30 30 32 16 7 14 31
Bears -3.0 24.8 Tampa Bay 29 29 27 18 28 21 19 15 25
Colts -1.5 24.3 Houston 17 11 28 3 12 11 30 25 32
Ravens + 3.0 24.0 at Pittsburgh 19 15 16 22 2 22 15 11 22
Raiders -2.5 23.8 Cleveland 4 1 5 10 31 8 5 3 5
Cowboys -3.0 23.3 Detroit 20 26 17 27 14 24 14 30 27
Giants + 3.5 23.3 New Orleans 28 22 32 1 30 31 32 10 6
Jaguars -7.5 23.0 N.Y. Jets 2 2 1 19 3 6 6 6 10
Texans + 1.5 22.8 at Indianapolis 12 18 12 15 20 15 28 5 18
Bengals + 5.5 22.8 at Atlanta 30 30 25 32 18 23 23 31 13
Eagles -4.0 22.5 at Tennessee 18 20 14 24 6 29 27 20 3
Buccaneers + 3.0 21.8 at Chicago 1 6 3 4 1 20 18 18 20
Vikings + 6.5 21.5 at Los Angeles 8 4 2 26 7 2 1 19 16
Browns + 2.5 21.3 at Oakland 31 31 31 28 26 14 25 28 8
Seahawks -3.0 20.8 at Arizona 14 12 18 11 24 17 11 27 28
Dolphins + 7.0 20.3 at New England 21 21 23 17 25 30 16 8 4
Lions + 3.0 20.3 at Dallas 13 16 15 13 23 25 3 21 21
Titans + 4.0 18.5 Philadelphia 7 7 11 2 10 10 31 13 7
49ers + 10.0 18.3 at L.A. Chargers 26 24 26 25 13 32 29 16 2
Cardinals + 3.0 17.8 Seattle 6 9 4 21 16 3 24 4 1
Bills + 10.0 17.5 at Green Bay 27 23 21 29 21 19 26 7 19
Jets + 7.5 15.5 at Jacksonville 9 10 10 7 8 26 10 9 15

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About the Author

thehazyone
Aaron Hendrix (thehazyone)

Aaron Hendrix is a former professional poker player who made the transition from season long fantasy sports to DFS in October of 2014. He used to cover poker tournaments for a living until stepping into his current role at RotoGrinders. He can be found on Twitter at @aaronhendrix