DRAFT NFL Value Watch: Week 5
Aaron Hendrix will be bringing Premium subscribers his tiers the various drafts on DRAFT ranging from head-to-head to 10 person drafts. Included will be strategy discussion and options for the day’s slate.
Week 5
Welcome to the DRAFT NFL Value Watch!
A couple notes to remember about DRAFT contests. One, there is no salary cap so you’re not worried about fitting players in on a budget. Raw fantasy points is what matters most, not the popular point per dollar. Second, while there is no late swap, if a player is ruled out, you will be able to swap them out. For more information on how this works, read the DRAFT Swap Rules Page – for this reason you can take some marginal chances in the later rounds on players that are questionable to play. DRAFT scoring is fairly standard football scoring with 1/2 point per reception. You can view the scoring rule by clicking on this link – Draft NFL Scoring. All analysis and rankings will be based on that.
One note about my rankings. They are typically made based on projected values. To get the best feel for the industry, each week I run a comparison of major DFS sites and come up with a average projected value from these sites. These values are how I determine my rankings.
Slate Overview
This data is copied from the NFL First Look from Notorious.
| Road Team | Home Team | Vegas Line | Over/Under | Date | Time | Stadium | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | at | Patriots | NE -10.0 | 51.5 | Thursday | 8:20 PM | Gillette Stadium |
| Falcons | at | Steelers | PIT-3.0 | 57.5 | Sunday | 1:00 PM | Heinz Field |
| Ravens | at | Browns | BAL-3.0 | 47.0 | Sunday | 1:00 PM | FirstEnergy Stadium |
| Broncos | at | Jets | NYJ-1.0 | 42.5 | Sunday | 1:00 PM | MetLife Stadium |
| Packers | at | Lions | GB -1.0 | 51.0 | Sunday | 1:00 PM | Ford Field |
| Jaguars | at | Chiefs | KC -3.0 | 49.0 | Sunday | 1:00 PM | Arrowhead Stadium |
| Dolphins | at | Bengals | CIN-6.5 | 49.5 | Sunday | 1:00 PM | Paul Brown Stadium |
| Giants | at | Panthers | CAR-7.0 | 44.5 | Sunday | 1:00 PM | Bank of America Stadium |
| Titans | at | Bills | TEN-3.5 | 39.0 | Sunday | 1:00 PM | New Era Field |
| Raiders | at | Chargers | LAC-5.5 | 53.5 | Sunday | 4:05 PM | StubHub Center |
| Cardinals | at | 49ers | SF -4.5 | 41.0 | Sunday | 4:25 PM | Levi’s Stadium |
| Rams | at | Seahawks | LAR-7.0 | 50.5 | Sunday | 4:25 PM | CenturyLink Field |
| Vikings | at | Eagles | PHI-3.0 | 44.5 | Sunday | 4:25 PM | Lincoln Financial Field |
| Cowboys | at | Texans | HOU-3.0 | 45.0 | Sunday | 8:20 PM | NRG Stadium |
| Redskins | at | Saints | NO -6.5 | 52.5 | Monday | 8:15 PM | Mercedes-Benz Superdome |
DVOA Matchups (Updated through Week 4)
Note: The DVOA rankings in this chart are for the defense listed in the “Matchup” column. These rankings can help identify favorable matchups for the offense listed in the first column.
| Offense | Spread | Implied Total | Matchup | DVOA | vs. PASS | vs. RUN | vs. RB-PA | vs. WR1 | vs. WR2 | vs. WR3 | vs. TEs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | -10.0 | 30.8 | Indianapolis | 10 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 26 | 28 | 9 | 19 |
| Steelers | -3.0 | 30.3 | Atlanta | 30 | 27 | 30 | 15 | 22 | 27 | 29 | 5 |
| Chargers | -5.5 | 29.5 | Oakland | 26 | 24 | 28 | 22 | 11 | 3 | 31 | 21 |
| Saints | -6.5 | 29.5 | Washington | 12 | 3 | 31 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 24 | 9 |
| Rams | -7.0 | 28.8 | at Seattle | 6 | 9 | 10 | 21 | 2 | 24 | 6 | 4 |
| Bengals | -6.5 | 28.0 | Miami | 7 | 8 | 12 | 25 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 8 |
| Falcons | + 3.0 | 27.3 | at Pittsburgh | 19 | 19 | 17 | 6 | 17 | 20 | 14 | 24 |
| Packers | -1.0 | 26.0 | at Detroit | 27 | 28 | 27 | 24 | 28 | 22 | 26 | 27 |
| Chiefs | -3.0 | 26.0 | Jacksonville | 2 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 23 | 9 | 7 | 17 |
| Panthers | -7.0 | 25.8 | N.Y. Giants | 28 | 22 | 29 | 8 | 27 | 5 | 28 | 22 |
| Ravens | -3.0 | 25.0 | at Cleveland | 4 | 4 | 7 | 28 | 15 | 10 | 1 | 7 |
| Lions | + 1.0 | 25.0 | Green Bay | 13 | 10 | 26 | 12 | 18 | 19 | 2 | 14 |
| Texans | -3.0 | 24.0 | Dallas | 20 | 26 | 11 | 23 | 20 | 21 | 32 | 20 |
| Raiders | + 5.5 | 24.0 | at L.A. Chargers | 21 | 18 | 22 | 2 | 32 | 25 | 23 | 1 |
| Eagles | -3.0 | 23.8 | Minnesota | 25 | 25 | 20 | 30 | 12 | 26 | 10 | 28 |
| Redskins | + 6.5 | 23.0 | at New Orleans | 29 | 32 | 1 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 8 | 6 |
| Jaguars | + 3.0 | 23.0 | at Kansas City | 31 | 30 | 32 | 32 | 19 | 8 | 13 | 29 |
| 49ers | -4.5 | 22.8 | Arizona | 11 | 11 | 18 | 19 | 13 | 11 | 11 | 23 |
| Browns | + 3.0 | 22.0 | Baltimore | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 11 |
| Jets | -1.0 | 21.8 | Denver | 17 | 16 | 19 | 20 | 16 | 15 | 17 | 26 |
| Seahawks | + 7.0 | 21.8 | Los Angeles | 9 | 7 | 23 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 30 | 13 |
| Dolphins | + 6.5 | 21.5 | at Cincinnati | 23 | 21 | 15 | 26 | 21 | 16 | 12 | 15 |
| Titans | -3.5 | 21.3 | at Buffalo | 14 | 15 | 14 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 27 | 18 |
| Cowboys | + 3.0 | 21.0 | at Houston | 18 | 29 | 2 | 16 | 25 | 30 | 20 | 32 |
| Colts | + 10.0 | 20.8 | at New England | 16 | 17 | 13 | 27 | 29 | 13 | 3 | 2 |
| Vikings | + 3.0 | 20.8 | at Philadelphia | 8 | 12 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 31 | 15 | 3 |
| Broncos | + 1.0 | 20.8 | at N.Y. Jets | 5 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 3 | 18 | 4 | 16 |
| Giants | + 7.0 | 18.8 | at Carolina | 24 | 20 | 24 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 30 |
| Cardinals | + 4.5 | 18.3 | at San Francisco | 22 | 23 | 9 | 17 | 6 | 23 | 18 | 25 |
| Bills | + 3.5 | 17.8 | Tennessee | 15 | 14 | 25 | 4 | 30 | 12 | 25 | 10 |
Our Premium content can help you make better picks every day
- To read this full article for this week’s NFL games, you need to have a subscription to Premium, our incentives content package.
- A Premium subscription will allow you to access this article and more.
About the Author
Aaron Hendrix is a former professional poker player who made the transition from season long fantasy sports to DFS in October of 2014. He used to cover poker tournaments for a living until stepping into his current role at RotoGrinders. He can be found on Twitter at @aaronhendrix