DRAFT PGA Value Watch: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Each week, Justin Van Zuiden will list the players he is overweight (heavier exposure than the field) and underweight (lower exposure than the field) on. Dominate your DRAFT drafts with this cheat sheet from one of the best in daily fantasy sports!
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Golfers I Am Overweight On
Dustin Johnson – Don’t be fooled by his 2018-2019 statistical ranks, as he has just eight measured rounds in PGA Tour play for the new season. Don’t overthink this. Dustin Johnson has two wins here. He has seven top five finishes in 11 trips. That’s a 64% top five rate. Not. Too. Shabby. By the way, he also won the event in Saudi Arabia last weekend. DJ loves this event, always plays well here, and is in top notch form right now. While the travel schedule after last week is a mild concern, I can only hope that it serves to lower his GPP ownership. He’s clearly the top option in the field. Pick him if you get the first pick on DRAFT.
Chez Reavie – It may seem a bit steep to spend an early pick on Reavie, but he’s a fine option in the second round. He ranks 7th on the PGA Tour in driving accuracy so far this season, and he also ranks 14th in ball striking. Reavie has made the cut in all eight events he has played this year, and two of the last three have resulted in top five finishes. He also finished in a tie for second here a year ago. If you want a great combination of current form, stats, and course fit, get him on your roster.
Matthew Fitzpatrick – His pre-rank on DRAFT is simply far too low. The question becomes when to reach for him, and I think the third or fourth round range is the right spot. We haven’t seen Fitzpatrick much on the PGA Tour of late, but he has been sizzling overseas. He has a 2nd, 4th, and 16th place finish on his resume since December, and his accurate game profiles well for Pebble Beach. Fitzpatrick is a bit of a polarizing figure in the DFS golf community, with some people loving him and some swearing off him forever. I fall somewhere in between those two camps, but I’m intrigued with the course fit and the current form despite the fact that he is a first-timer at this venue. Snag him in the middle rounds.
Shane Lowry – Here is another case of a golfer with a pre-rank that is too low. Perhaps the DRAFT algorithm is not impressed with the players who primarily compete on the European Tour. Lowry has made the cut in all four of his trips to this event, finishing inside the top 45 every time. He also arrives in some of the best form of his career, with a win and another top 15 on his resume of late. Lowry is another player you can pick with confidence in the middle rounds.
Doug Ghim – If you are not familiar with Ghim, you’re not alone. However, we know that the key is to get on the right bandwagons BEFORE the masses hop aboard. It worked with Im in January, and I hope it works with Ghim this month. The 22 year old is finally finding his feet on the professional Tours, and his last PGA Tour start resulted in a 20th place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open. He also added a top five finish on the Web.Com Tour last week. This is a player who was the top amateur in the world not too long ago, and he could be ready to go on a run like we have seen with Sungjae Im. Ghim is a fine pick in the final round of larger field contests.
Golfers I Am Underweight On
Patrick Reed – He has been traveling a lot lately between the PGA Tour and the European Tour, and this does not seem like a great course fit for Reed. He often hits it all over the map, and I am prioritizing accuracy this week with the narrower fairways at Pebble Beach as they prepare for the U.S. Open. Reed will cost a back-end first round selection on DRAFT, and that’s too much of a premium for me.
Andrew Putnam – Putnam has only played here twice over the last five years, and he has missed the cut both times. His form has also started to fade a bit after a hot stretch to start the fall/winter swing. He dipped to 34th at the Desert Classic and missed the cut after a Friday 77 last week. He could be a bit fatigued at the moment, and he’s an easy fade for me in a spot where he will require a second or third round pick on DRAFT.
Branden Grace – If he lasts until the final two rounds, I think you can take a chance on Grace, but he is not a player I will be reaching for. His narrow loss last week with a bit of a mental choke on the final few holes is a bit of a concern, and part of Grace’s big performance was due to the fact that he gained over four strokes with the putter over the final three rounds. He has only played here once, and I’m not sold on a breakout performance for a second week in a row, as he had been slumping a bit prior to last week.
Pat Perez – He has dealt with a thumb injury of late, and his last three tournaments have resulted in two missed cuts and a withdrawal. This is an easy pass.
Kevin Na and Kyle Stanley – This is a public service announcement, as DRAFT has not removed the projections on these two players as of the time I am writing this article. Both have high enough projections to where they will likely get picked by someone. Don’t let that person be you!
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