DRAFT PGA Value Watch: Houston Open
Each week, Justin Van Zuiden will list the players he is overweight (heavier exposure than the field) and underweight (lower exposure than the field) on. Dominate your DRAFT drafts with this cheat sheet from one of the best in daily fantasy sports!
Golfers I Am Overweight On
Henrik Stenson – I am surprised that DRAFT has so many golfers ahead of him this week, as Stenson is the most expensive option on the salary cap sites. He’s my first round choice, if available. He clearly has an affinity for this course. He has finished inside the top six in two of his last three trips to Houston, and that’s no surprise given his skill set. Stenson is very strong with his fairway woods and long irons, clubs that will come into play on the par fives and the quartet of long par fours at this venue. When you throw in the weak nature of the field, Stenson’s win equity rises even more. He is around 8-to-1 or 9-to-1 to win in Vegas, and those are pretty healthy odds for a golfer, let alone one of Stenson’s caliber.
Daniel Berger – The trends are aligning in the right direction. I have written up Berger in this space each of the last two weeks, and that’s not going to change in a weak field event after Berger has posted back-to-back top 25 finishes to start the fall swing. He gained four strokes off the tee in Vegas and appears to be playing with more confidence than we have seen with him in quite some time. Oh, and he’s also played in Houston four times — posting top 25 finishes in all four of his previous trips. Everything is coming up roses! He’s a great fallback option if you don’t get Stenson in the first round.
Scottie Scheffler, Lanto Griffin, and Robby Shelton – Here is your weekly trio of golfers that DRAFT has buried in the projections, with around 50 golfers pegged ahead of them. I am fine with any of them in the middle to later rounds. Both Scheffler and Shelton have been consistent cut makers this fall, while Griffin has posted four straight top 20 finishes.
Kevin Chappell – His health issues seem to be in the rear view mirror at this point, and the projections have yet to catch up to his return. Based on talent level, Chappell is probably a top 10-15 option in this field. He has knocked off the rust with a pair of made cuts and finishes in the 40-50 range so far in the fall swing, and I expect him to continue to trend upward.
Golfers I Am Underweight On
Richy Werenski – I have no problems with Richy Werenski. I am sure he is a great fella. He has had a couple of solid finishes in his first two fall starts. However, he has no business being projected as the #3 overall golfer in any field. I’ll pass on using a first round pick on him.
Sebastian Munoz – He has had a great fall season so far, including a breakthrough win a few weeks ago. However, he missed the cut last week and has faded a bit over the last couple of tournaments. I prefer other options in the first round range, and I would take Berger, Stenson, or McCarthy over him — all three are projected lower than Munoz in the DRAFT projections.
Russell Henley – Expectations are high for Henley this week, and I would expect someone to reach to snag him in the late first or early second round of larger field DRAFT games. His course history is very good. However, the form over the last six to eight months has simply been abysmal for Henley. If he falls to the later rounds, you can take a shot on him, but I don’t expect that to be the case. I’ll be underweight.
Stewart Cink – This just isn’t the golf course for him. Cink hasn’t played a ton of golf lately, and now he returns on a course that rewards some element of distance off the tee. Cink doesn’t have the form to warrant consideration despite course history that was solid prior to 2018. He was largely a better golfer then. I’ll pass.
Sepp Straka – The name might warrant him some consideration after his strong finish to the 2018-2019 season, but Straka has struggled mightily in the fall swing. He’s missed four straight cuts and does not deserve consideration as a late round pick on DRAFT at this point.
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