DRAFT PGA Value Watch: Mayakoba Golf Classic
Each week, Justin Van Zuiden will list the players he is overweight (heavier exposure than the field) and underweight (lower exposure than the field) on. Dominate your DRAFT drafts with this cheat sheet from one of the best in daily fantasy sports!
Mayakoba Golf Classic
Golfers I Am Overweight On
Tony Finau – He is my first pick on DRAFT if I get the opportunity this week. Finau is clearly one of the rising stars in American golf. However, he hasn’t been able to cross many victories off his “to do” list, as his only PGA Tour win remains a victory at an extremely weak field even in Puerto Rico a few years ago. He’s been close, though. Finau had two runner-up finishes, one third place finish, and six top tens during the 2018-2019 season. It’s only a matter of time. While he has a reputation as a bomber, Finau is also a fantastic ball striker with few weaknesses. He has a great combination of power and finesse, and he can contend on any layout. He has two top 20 finishes in three trips to Mayakoba, too.
Russell Knox – Knox always seems to thrive on layouts that minimize the importance of distance and maximize the importance of approach play, and that’s exactly what we have here. Sometimes course history can be a fluke, but it is no fluke that this is the course where Knox has top ten finishes in each of his last three trips. He has solid Vegas odds, and he showed signs of life in Bermuda two weeks ago with four straight sub-70 rounds and an 11th place finish. Knox is an elite option in the early to middle rounds of larger field DRAFT games.
Scottie Scheffler – DRAFT is getting better with their projections on the younger golfers, but Scheffler continues to slip through the cracks. His iron play is one of the strengths of his game, and that should set him up with plenty of scoring chances on a layout that is friendly for scoring. He is very much capable of getting hot with the flat stick, and he rebounded from a relatively tough patch with a third place finish in Bermuda his last time out. The upside is there. Target him in the middle rounds of larger DRAFT games.
Danny Lee – Lee sizzled on the Asian swing with a runner-up finish at Nine Bridges followed by another top ten in Japan. He is now up to 58th on Tour in ball striking this year, which is well above field average in this event. Course history is also on his side, as Lee has three top 25 finishes including a pair of top fives in his last four trips to Mayakoba. Ride the trends, especially since he might last until the later rounds.
Kyle Stanley – This is a nod to Stanley’s skill set, even though his form over the last six months has been nothing short of underwhelming. Stanley is a notoriously good ball striker who should thrive on a layout like this one, and maybe that is the recipe to get him rolling. I’m throwing the form and course history aside, which is dangerous, but Stanley is a risk/reward option that makes sense as your final pick in larger field games.
Golfers I Am Underweight On
Jason Day – We simply haven’t seen the winning upside from Day as much lately. His last few starts have been underwhelming, and he has disappointed us so many times over the past two years. Until we start to see him show some upside again, there’s no point to taking him with a first round selection. Let someone else over-draft him based on the name value.
Charles Howell – I like Howell just fine, but I am likely going to end up underweight on DRAFT. Like Day, Howell will require a first round pick, and I will simply prioritize others like Finau and Hovland in this spot. Howell has great course history, but he did miss the cut here a year ago, and now he feels over-valued both on DRAFT and on the salary cap sites.
Dylan Frittelli – Frittelli is a fine golfer, but his form has cooled a bit of late, and I simply think DRAFT has him pegged a bit too highly in this field. He’s projected ahead of the likes of Niemann and Bradley, and that seems a bit steep for me. Give me those others in the middle rounds.
Chez Reavie
Scott Piercy
Given their likely positions where they will be drafted, these are form fades for me. Reavie has posted finishes of 46th, 70th, and 60th over his last three starts, and the last two were in limited field events. Piercy has finished 75th and 66th in his last two starts. If I’m taking a shot on a good course fit in poor form, I’ll just go with Kyle Stanley with a later pick.
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