DRAFT PGA Value Watch: The Zozo Championship
Each week, Justin Van Zuiden will list the players he is overweight (heavier exposure than the field) and underweight (lower exposure than the field) on. Dominate your DRAFT drafts with this cheat sheet from one of the best in daily fantasy sports!
The Zozo Championship
Golfers I Am Overweight On
Rory McIlroy – He is a fine pick on DRAFT at any point during the first round. Whenever a course is in play that is a relative unknown from a historical perspective, I never have an issue relying on Rory McIlroy. He is a quick study who should be able to thrive here. While some may shy away from McIlroy given that Narashino does not favor distance off the tee, I like this as an opportunity for the rest of his game to shine. Rory has said all the right things about the course, and it doesn’t hurt that he got a competitive round in here with the gimmicky skins game that was held here on Monday. He has logged SIXTEEN top 10 finishes in all worldwide events in this calendar, which is remarkable when you consider that he plays a relatively limited schedule. He ranked 15th in ball striking and 12th in strokes gained on approach in the 2018-2019 season, and he is the favorite to win in my eyes.
Xander Schauffele – Schauffele is a rapidly rising young golfer who could very easily win a major in 2020. His game is elite throughout his bag, and he always tends to show up for big events. Don’t sleep on him as a potential candidate to win in Japan, making him a great late first-round pick if you don’t get one of the top two or three options.
Jason Day – He won the skins challenge on Monday and at least seems to be having fun on the golf course right now. I like him more as a play if the weather is a bit dicey, and it’s expected to be fairly windy on Thursday and Friday. The DRAFT projection on Day is relatively modest, making him a fine pick in the middle rounds.
Rafael Cabrera-Bello – The all around game for Cabrera-Bello tends to go under-appreciated in national media circles, but some DFS players have always had an affinity for the Spaniard. It had been a while since we have seen him play in a PGA Tour event prior to last week, but he played fairly well on his way to a 26th place finish in Korea. His ball striking metrics weren’t great a year ago, but we can attribute some of that to limited sample size combined with the fact that he generally plays the more difficult events. I like his overall game, I like the overall trends, and I think he is a sneaky contender here. Give him a look in the middle to later rounds on DRAFT.
Other golfers that appear under-projected: Matthew Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood, Tiger Woods
Golfers I Am Underweight On
Adam Hadwin – I actually like Hadwin a lot this week, and I’ve written him up as a GPP play on the salary cap sites. However, DRAFT has Hadwin listed as the fourth overall option in the field, even ahead of Rory McIlroy. That is simply too high despite the current form. This is merely a fade because of DRAFT’s over-projection of him.
Ryan Palmer – He does not fit the mold of golfer I am looking for here, as Palmer sometimes tends to spray the ball off the tee — and there is water in play here. Run away! All kidding aside, the projection seems a bit too high who grades out as slightly above average at best on this course.
Scott Piercy – This is a form fade, as Piercy simply isn’t playing good golf right now. Over his last three starts, he has gone 67th (with a third round 80), MC, and 75th (in a 78 player field). Yikes. There are better mid-round options.
Louis Oosthuizen – We have yet to see him during the fall swing, and you just never know when his fragile back will act up — especially with all the travel. There are better, safer options in this projection range.
Other golfers that appear over-projected: Adam Scott, Charles Howell, Billy Horschel
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