DRAFT PGA Value Watch: TOUR Championship
Each week, Justin Van Zuiden will list the players he is overweight (heavier exposure than the field) and underweight (lower exposure than the field) on. Dominate your DRAFT drafts with this cheat sheet from one of the best in daily fantasy sports!
Remember, we have a new format for this event in 2019. Players will start with the following scores based on their FedEx Cup standing position.
1st – Justin Thomas – starts at -10
2nd – Patrick Cantlay – starts at -8
3rd – Brooks Koepka – starts at -7
4th – Patrick Reed – starts at -6
5th – Rory McIlroy – starts at -5
6th to 10th – Jon Rahm, Matt Kuchar, Xander Schauffele, Webb Simpson, and Abraham Ancer – all start at -4
11th to 15th – Gary Woodland, Tony Finau, Adam Scott, Dustin Johnson, and Hideki Matsuyama – all start at -3
16th to 20th – Paul Casey, Justin Rose, Brandt Snedeker, Rickie Fowler, and Kevin Kisner – all start at -2
21st to 25th – Marc Leishman, Tommy Fleetwood, Corey Conners, Sungjae Im, and Chez Reavie – all start at -1
26th to 30th – Bryson DeChambeau, Louis Oosthuizen, Charles Howell, Lucas Glover, and Jason Kokrak – all start at even par
Golfers I Am Overweight On
Justin Thomas – I won’t be playing him much in salary cap GPP contests this week, but he’s undoubtedly the top play on DRAFT. They don’t even have him pegged as the #1 option despite his massive starting edge and +250 overall odds to win. Don’t overthink it if Thomas is there when you pick in the first round. Finishing position matters, and it would take a really bad week for Thomas to finish poorly overall.
Rory McIlroy – McIlroy is starting four back. He obviously has the potential to make up those strokes in a hurry, though. When Rory is striking it well, his ability to gain tons of strokes from tee to green should pay dividends at East Lake. We haven’t seen the elite form with Rory as often lately, but this is as good as any time to give his talent a whirl. Give him a look toward the back end of the first round if you are in a larger DRAFT game.
Tony Finau – As I was doing some research for this week, I noticed something – the top five players in strokes gained on approach last week have all made it to the Tour Championship. Tony Finau, Justin Thomas, a surging Corey Conners, Louis Oosthuizen, and Lucas Glover all gained over four strokes on approach at Medinah. It’s notable to see Finau on this list. His game is most definitely back after a rough patch in the middle of the summer, something that’s not uncommon for a young golfer who is playing a ton of tournaments. Finau has followed up three straight missed cuts with five straight top 30 finishes, and his solid all around ability makes him a nice fit for East Lake. He’s a great middle to late round selection.
Honorable mention – Adam Scott, Paul Casey
Golfers I Am Underweight On
Dustin Johnson – DRAFT is not really weighting the starting spots like the salary cap sites are, and Johnson is simply erroneously placed as the top golfer on DRAFT. There’s no reason to consider him in the first round, let alone at the top, given the fact that he is starting seven back. In addition, his approach play has been extremely underwhelming of late.
Patrick Reed – I just don’t love his fit at East Lake. He has made it here in each of the last five seasons, and here are his finishes:
2014 – 19th
2015 – 27th
2016 – 24th
2017 – 13th
2018 – 28th
Remember, only 30 golfers make this tournament annually. I’ll steer clear.
Marc Leishman – He’s starting near the back and simply isn’t dialed in at the moment. Leishman lost four strokes on the field from tee to green a week ago and only hung on to his spot at East Lake with a bail-out putting week. I don’t have much interest in him for the finale, as East Lake will absolutely punish a substandard tee to green game.
Honorable mention – Brandt Snedeker, Chez Reavie
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