DRAFT PGA Value Watch: WGC - FedEx St. Jude Invitational

Each week, Justin Van Zuiden will list the players he is overweight (heavier exposure than the field) and underweight (lower exposure than the field) on. Dominate your DRAFT drafts with this cheat sheet from one of the best in daily fantasy sports!

WGC – FedEx St. Jude Invitational

Golfers I Am Overweight On

Dustin Johnson – This is a really interesting spot. On one hand, Dustin Johnson has been in fairly poor form (by his standards) so far this summer. On the other hand, this is a world class golfer who has top 25 finishes in his last four trips to TPC Southwind, outside of one year in which he withdrew early in the tournament. Obviously, that includes his victory a year ago. He has more course history at the venue than almost all of the other high-priced golfers in the field, and that does have some value. If I get the first pick on DRAFT, he’s my play.

Bryson DeChambeau – If you end up with a back end first round selection, that is not a bad spot this week. Guys like Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood, and DeChambeau will be in the mix at that spot. I’ll highlight Bryson as my overweight play here. It comes as absolutely no surprise to me that Bryson DeChambeau struggled his way to a missed cut in Northern Ireland last week. The nature of his game is not suited to links golf, and he has now gone MC-51st-MC in his three Open appearances. With his feet back on U.S. soil, look for DeChambeau to get back to the recent positive trends that we have seen from him. That included a pair of back-to-back top ten finishes before heading to Europe on the heels of four consecutive cuts made.

Henrik StensonTPC Southwind is a classic par 70 layout that has more bite than a lot of the other courses we have seen on the PGA Tour in recent months. Eight of the twelve par fours at TPC Southwind measure at 445 yards or longer on the scorecard. That’s great news for Stenson, who is one of the best long iron players on the planet. He has some reasonable history at the venue, which is a nice feather in the cap. I like him a lot as a mid-round pick in all DRAFT formats.

Keith Mitchell – I have not written up Mitchell quite some time, but this is absolutely the perfect time to buy back in. He doesn’t like playing on poa greens at all, which caused him to struggle on the West Coast. He doesn’t like playing on bentgrass that much, which caused him to struggle in the Midwest. He’s not a great fit on links, but he only missed the cut at The Open by one stroke. He always tends to pop more often on bermuda surfaces, and that’s what we have this week at TPC Southwind. Mitchell is now available late in DRAFT games, and he played well at the St. Jude last year with a solid 37th place finish (when it was a full field, 156 golfer event). If you are looking for a golfer with value in a no cut event, Mitchell is your play. I think he’s a great long shot bet for a top 5 or top 20 finish, too, if you are into the sports gambling space.

Matthew Wolff – The young bomber is back in action this week, and it will be interesting to see how Wolff handles his first WGC start. If his recent history is any indication, he won’t have a problem. Wolff backed up his win at the 3M Open with a solid 37th place finish at the John Deere Classic a week later, and he does have the benefit of being rested and refreshed ahead of this week’s event, while most of the other players are coming off a grueling trip to Northern Ireland. That’s something that can’t be overlooked. Wolff has the game to compete with the best of them, with plenty of distance off the tee and no major weaknesses in his bag. The lack of experience on this golf course isn’t a major hindrance given that a good chunk of the field has never played at TPC Southwind competitively. His DRAFT projection is near the bottom of the field, so grab him with your final round pick.

Golfers I Am Underweight On

Brooks Koepka – Until he shows us something in a non-major, which he has not done for quite some time, I can’t justify using a first round pick on Koepka on DRAFT. This is especially true the week after he finished inside the top five once again at a major championship. He simply seems to find another gear for those events, and that has him over-valued in non-major weeks. I’ll pass.

Jason Day – I’m going to be bitter for a while. He crushed my best team last week with a devastating six over par finish on his last six holes on Friday… to miss the cut by one shot. That’s a punch to the gut. I’m sure nobody is more upset than Jason Day himself about the collapse, but that might be one that gets him off my radar for a while. We need some time apart. DRAFT has him pegged as the ninth highest option in this field, and that’s too high given his inconsistent form. Bias or no bias, I’ll pass (though I’m clearly biased).

Phil Mickelson – The form is just a disaster with Phil right now. He has now missed as many cuts as he has made on the season, including seven missed cuts in his last ten starts. Of the three made cuts, his finishes are 18-71-52. That’s not exactly lighting it up. DRAFT still has Mickelson pegged far too high. There’s no reason to take a chance on him right now, as his ball is all over the place off the tee.

Shane Lowry – In the least surprising news ever, Shane Lowry has withdrawn from this event. He’s probably still partying it up in Dublin. As of the time I am writing this, DRAFT still has him squarely in the player pool with a solid projection. Don’t make the mistake of taking him!

Bubba Watson – This is a pretty similar case to that of Mickelson. The form just isn’t there for Bubba right now, with nondescript finishes all over his resume. When he’s making cuts, he’s not contending. In the DRAFT model where you aren’t forced onto any specific golfer and a small chunk of the field gets drafted, there is just no reason to go here. Let someone else take the wild ride if they so choose.

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