DraftKings Market Exploitation: Week 1
Similar to stock trading, Daily Fantasy football is all about exploiting the market. Markets are dynamic, and focusing simply on a price-tag is not necessarily enough to win the big bucks.
Fields are enormous on DraftKings this year. To win the Sunday Million, you may have to best 5,000 or more competitors. Yes, a cheap value play could help you win the first place prize, but if 30% of the field is utilizing him, who cares? We want to separate from the pack.
“In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.” – Robert Arnott, entrepreneur, investor, editor and writer
To go about this, we are going to have to get out of our comfort zone, and identify players that are commonly ignored or despised among the daily fantasy community. On Week 1 specifically, we can also factor in season long fantasy rankings, as those become a large factor into the daily fantasy community’s evaluations.
Below, you’ll find a list of players who hit at least solid value on DraftKings, but who are also some combination of no-names, hated, downward-trending, and/or oft-overlooked. If utilized correctly, however, these off-the-wall plays could help you separate from the pack this Sunday.
Quarterbacks
Geno Smith ($6,500): Gang Green’s starting signal caller is cheaper on DraftKings than his backup. That’s weird.
Oakland’s coverage unit should be somewhat improved in 2014, but let’s not forget that the Silver and Black secondary was unfailingly generous to quarterbacks just a year ago. Oakland gave up an average of .55 fantasy points every time a pass was thrown against them – second worst in the NFL.
Geno, strangely enough, was borderline elite in Jets’ wins during his rookie campaign. He averaged 23.8 fantasy points in those New York wins – a shade more than Drew Brees averaged in all 2013 games. Geno’s completion percentage was 7 percent higher, he threw for 59 more yards, and ran for 23 more yards in Jets’ wins.
New York is favored here, at home against a slightly improved Oakland secondary. After a somewhat lackluster preseason in which we all waited for Geno to choke away the starting job, he comes into Week 1 with no fanfare in DFS circles and a pass-catching cast vastly improved form last year.
Shaun Hill ($5,000): Minnesota’s abysmal 2013 coverage unit may be slightly improved in 2014, but Hill’s matchup is clearly on the favorable side here. Facing an average of 40.5 pass attempts per game in 2013, the Vikings gave up .53 fantasy points per attempt (FPAT) – third worst in the NFL. Vegas projections say this game won’t be a barn burner, but Hill doesn’t have to put up 25 fantasy points this week to qualify as a solid play that frees up dollars for stacking lineups with elite players.
Running Backs
Stevan Ridley ($4,900): Questions of ball security plagued Ridley once again this August, raising questions about his spot on the final Patriots roster.
Yes, perception of Ridley could hardly be lower.
Ridley, the 28th priciest running back on DraftKings, sports a terrifying (and hopeful) split in New England wins and losses. Ridley notches an average of 6.1 fantasy points in Pats losses and 10.2 points in wins. His attempts, yardage, and touchdowns spike in New England victories.
The Patriots are favored to beat the Dolphins in Miami this week, and with one-time sleeper candidate James White looking thoroughly unimpressive this preseason, Ridley could be a low-cost exploitative play.
With double-digit touches against Miami – no sure thing – Ridley has a ceiling of 17.3 fantasy points, according to the RotoViz projection app.
Ben Tate ($5,200): It’s tough to find an unquestioned every-down runner at such a low cost this week. Tate can be had for less than Trent Richardson.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Browns forced to abandon their run-heavy attack in this one, though that’s not a knock on Tate’s prospects. He’s expected to take passing-down duties in Cleveland too.
4for4’s schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed tool projects the Steelers to be a middle-of-the-road defense against opposing running backs, so this is hardly a must-avoid matchup for Tate.
Wide Receivers
Andre Johnson ($6,600): I wouldn’t call Johnson a screaming value on DraftKings, as he’s top-10 in wide receiver salary. An offseason beset by Johnson’s unpleasant back and forth with Houston’s front office and concerns about AJ’s age will likely ensure he’s not the most popular play in Week 1.
Johnson plays Washington’s secondary, which was rated by Pro Football Focus as the seventh worst coverage unit in 2013. Johnson, since 2012, has averaged 8 catches and 111 yards on 12 targets against bottom-10 pass defenses. That’s 19.1 fantasy points just on receptions.
DeSean Jackson ($5,400): DJax, the 26th most expensive receiver on the DraftKings board, was almost silent this preseason as he was hampered by a minor ankle injury.
Jackson gets his crack at the Houston secondary, which ranked as the second worst in 2013, according to PFF’s metrics. DJax, over his career, has scored a whole lot more touchdowns against bottom-feeding coverage units, notching .55 touchdowns per game against the league’s worst defenses as opposed to .23 touchdowns per game against top-20 defenses.
Tight End
Jared Cook ($3,500): Cook, fantasy’s most hated man in 2013, is a cheap play against a Minnesota defense that was consistently generous to tight ends a season ago. The Vikings’ linebackers, in fact, were graded as some of the worst cover guys at the position, according to PFF.
Minnesota gave up 14.1 schedule-adjusted fantasy points to tight ends in 2013. Only three teams gave up more production to tight ends. Cook will likely be a deeply unpopular play and has every chance to exploit a fine matchup.
Embrace others’ hate.