DraftKings Market Exploitation: Week 2
This column is dedicated to spotting the clearest values among players who have seen their DraftKings price drop the most from one week to the next. When a player’s market changes radically, we look to exploit it.
I’ll use a variety of tools to help sift through players whose DFS salaries have plummeted, including RotoGrinders’ NFL Market Watch tool — an invaluable piece for those looking to exploit inefficiencies and take down the week’s biggest DraftKings tournaments.
We’re either going to be right alone or wrong alone with many of these players, and that’s precisely the point. Now let’s get into this week’s plays begging for market exploitation.
Market Exploitation: DraftKings
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers ($7,900): I never expected Rodgers to make it into this column, but after an eye-popping DraftKings salary drop of $900, I would be foolish not to include him in this space.
Yes, Rodgers and the Packers’ passing game looked pedestrian in the Thunderdome against the ferocious machine known as the Seattle defense. Everyone does. Rodgers is now seventh in quarterback price on DraftKings, taking on a sieve of a Jets’ secondary that allowed two touchdowns to rookie Derek Carr a week ago.
The RotoGrinders DK projections have Rodgers notching a healthy 21.2 fantasy points this week, and as the #1 QB. Don’t overthink this if you don’t want to go super cheap on quarterback this week.
Tom Brady ($7,000): Brady, with Rob Gronkowski limited to 25 pass routes in the season opener, posted an uninspiring stat line against a sneaky good Dolphins’ secondary. Brady’s DraftKings price subsequently dropped by $700. He’s now the site’s 19th most expensive quarterback.
Lost in the Vikings’ total domination of St. Louis last week was the 272 passing yards Rams’ signal callers threw for against a Minnesota secondary that was really quite bad last year. They’ll be better this season, but I don’t think this is a particularly bad matchup for Tommy Boy.
While others are plugging and playing Jake Locker, Nick Foles, and Matthew Stafford, I think Brady becomes a nice against-the-grain play.
Running Backs
Jeremy Hill ($3,000): The Bengals’ rookie runner played a measly 10 snaps in Sunday’s win against the Ravens. Gio Bernard was the clear workhorse. Hence, Hill’s DraftKings price dropped by an incredible $1,700, making him available for the bare minimum $3,000.
Cincinnati offensive coordinator Hue Jackson said this week that he approached Hill and told him he would be more involved in the team’s offensive plans, just in time for a matchup against the Falcons’ unintimidating front seven. Atlanta’s run defense was graded by Pro Football Focus as a bottom-3 unit in Week 1, as the Saints’ running backs ran for 139 yards and three scores.
Cincy’s big back will be an extraordinarily contrarian play this week, and saves enough cash for us to stock up on high-end receivers and tight ends. We’re either going to be right alone on Hill or wrong alone – precisely what we’re looking for.
Wide Receivers
T.Y. Hilton ($5,000): For just $100 more than Andrew Hawkins, you can have Hilton, who saw 11 targets in the Colts’ Week 1 loss in Denver.
Hilton reeled in five of those targets for 41 yards, making him one of the more disappointing plays of the season’s first week as the Broncos focused on shutting down the Colts’ most dangerous pass catcher. Hilton’s DraftKings price has since fallen by $500 – more than enough to make him an exploitative play against a so-so Philadelphia coverage unit.
Aaron Dobson ($3,000): Just a quick note on Dobson, who was a healthy scratch in New England’s season opener: he’s now at DraftKings’ minimum cost and has a chance of suiting up against Minnesota this week.
Dobson caught three passes for 57 yards and a score in his only preseason action after offseason foot surgery. He’s what the Patriots need as a tall, fast deep threat for Tom Brady, and if he’s active, he’s going to find his way into a tournament lineup of mine.
Alshon Jeffery ($6,200): Alshon went from top-end pricing on DraftKings in Week 1 to the site’s 16th highest priced receiver in Week 2. An in-game hamstring injury has a lot to do with that, though Jeffrey still finished with 12.1 fantasy points on just six targets against the Bills.
Jeffery is not expected to miss this week’s game in San Francisco against an exploitable 49ers’ secondary. Jeffery’s Week 2 is $900 lower than his Week 1 salary – enough to get elite fantasy production for a similar price as Larry Fitzgerald and Victor Cruz.
Tight End
Charles Clay ($3,200): Clay, the Dolphins’ second most targeted pass catcher in Week 1, gets his shot at a Buffalo linebacking crew that gave up eight catches, 70 yards, and a score to Martellus Bennett last week.
Clay is among DraftKings’ cheapest starting tight ends – or starters at any position. Buffalo’s linebackers received bottom-5 pass coverage grades from PFF in the season’s opening week, making Clay a clear target for those looking to go cheap at tight end and load up at other positions in tournaments.