DraftKings Market Exploitation: Week 3
This column is dedicated to spotting the clearest values among players who have seen their DraftKings price drop the most from one week to the next. When a player’s market changes radically, we look to exploit it.
I’ll use a variety of tools to help sift through players whose DFS salaries have plummeted, including RotoGrinders’ NFL Market Watch tool — an invaluable piece for those looking to exploit inefficiencies and take down the week’s biggest DraftKings tournaments.
We’re either going to be right alone or wrong alone with many of these players, and that’s precisely the point. Now let’s get into this week’s plays begging for market exploitation.
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson ($6,800) vs. Denver Broncos
Denver’s defense – particularly its secondary – is much improved, but I’m not shying away from Wilson as a cheap play with a nice, high ceiling in this one.
Wilson’s DraftKings price, after a Week 2 performance that saw him post 220 total yards and two scores, fell by $300 – no small margin. He’s now DraftKing’s 16th most expensive signal caller against a Broncos defense that has allowed 19.5 fantasy points to opposing signal callers over the season’s first two weeks.
Wilson, just as he did during his first two NFL seasons, has proven incredibly efficient, notching .60 fantasy points every time he drops back to pass. I’d consider Wilson a must-have value play who will not be widely used in Week 3 tournaments.
Colin Kaepernick ($6,600) at Arizona Cardinals
Kaepernick’s horrid showing last week in front of a national audience gives us a real chance to be greedy on the San Francisco signal caller while others are fearful.
Even with last Sunday’s three-interception performance, Kaepernick is averaging .52 fantasy points per drop back and a very respectable .48 fantasy points per attempt (FPAT). In Week 3, he’s terribly cheap and playing a Cardinals’ secondary that has allowed 257.5 passing yards per game.
Running Backs
Reggie Bush ($5,000) vs. Green Bay Packers
Vegas projects the Green Bay-Detroit showdown to be among the highest scoring of Week 3, and when I can grab a guy for cheap in such an affair, I do it.
Bush’s DraftKings salary plummeted by $1,000, putting him among the Week 3 ranks of Chris Ivory and Trent Richardson. A quick look at RotoGrinders’ Running Back Touches tool tells us that Bush only has 23 touches this season, but is averaging .77 fantasy points per touch. He’s fully $400 cheaper than teammate Joique Bell, who I expect to be widely owned in GPPs and cash games alike.
Monte Ball ($5,900) at Seattle Seahawks
Ball’s salary has dropped by $900 in the lead up to Denver’s apocalyptic showdown in Seattle’s Thunderdome. Hence, I see him as an ideal fit for this space.
Ball hasn’t exactly lit the world aflame through two weeks, but he’s getting the ball (40 touches) plenty to eventually prove he’s a top-10 running back.
Seattle is giving up 82 rushing yards per game, and though the prospect of starting a runner against the mighty Seahawks makes me a little nauseous, I’m reminded that Ball is the 13th priciest DraftKings running back this week. He’s a fantastic contrarian play.
Wide Receivers
Golden Tate ($5,000) vs. Green Bay Packers
Tate’s price tag dropped by another $200 after the entire Lions offense struggled against a top-end Panthers defense. Now in a high-scoring game as part of a high-volume throwing offense, I like Tate a lot in Week 3.
Tate has caught 11 of his 13 targets through two games. I like him as someone who can finally take advantage of the titled coverage that inevitably happens when Calvin Johnson is anywhere on the field. If you’re looking to stack players in this game, Tate deserves your attention. Brian Quick and Andrew Hawkins are pricier this week.
Demaryius Thomas ($6,600) vs. Seattle Seahawks
DT is barely top-10 in receiver salary this week on DraftKings after a remarkable $600 drop in price tag.
Teams have successfully moved their top pass catchers away from Richard Sherman – see Jordy Nelson in Week 1 – and it was just seven months ago that Thomas had 13 catches for 118 yards and a touchdown against these same Seahawks.
Plenty of daily gamers will fade Thomas this week. I won’t.
Tight Ends
Dennis Pitta ($4,400) vs. Cleveland Browns
The Browns’ generosity to tight ends is skewed by Week 2’s skewering at the hands of Jimmy Graham, but it’s Pitta’s price that intrigues me in Week 3. His DraftKings price fell off a cliff this week, dropping by $1,200.
According to RotoGrinders’ Tight End Targets tool, only four tight ends have more targets than Pitta through two weeks. Owen Daniels will continue to vulture some scores from Pitta, like so many No. 2 tight ends in Gary Kubiak’s offense have done over the past decade. If you’re looking to go cheap at tight end and buy a player who could easily see a half dozen targets, Pitta is your guy.