DraftKings Market Exploitation: Week 4
This column is dedicated to spotting the clearest values among players who have seen their DraftKings price drop the most from one week to the next. When a player’s market changes radically, we look to exploit it.
I’ll use a variety of tools to help sift through players whose DFS salaries have plummeted, including RotoGrinders’ NFL Market Watch tool — an invaluable piece for those looking to exploit inefficiencies and take down the week’s biggest DraftKings tournaments.
We’re either going to be right alone or wrong alone with many of these players, and that’s precisely the point. Now let’s get into this week’s plays begging for market exploitation.
DraftKings Market Exploitation: Week 4
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford ($8,000) at New York Jets
Stafford’s Week 3 abomination came with a big hit to his DraftKings salary. Stafford is the site’s seventh highest price signal caller after a price drop of $800.
Detroit is still throwing the ball plenty (38 times per game) for Stafford to benefit from volume even when he’s not efficient in the Lions’ new offensive system, and the Jets’ injury-ravaged secondary is proven susceptible as the team’s front seven snuffs out opposing running attacks.
Remove the Jets’ Week 1 tilt against Derek Carr and New York is allowing 285.5 passing yards and 2.5 passing scores per contest. I expect Stafford to light up the Gang Green secondary, and with doubt creeping in about Stafford’s consistency after the mess against Green Bay, I think this is a perfect time to strike.
Cam Newton ($7,100) at Baltimore Ravens
For all the talk of Steve Smith and the various chips on his rage-filled shoulder, it’s easy to forget that Newton gets his crack at a defense that’s allowing 7.9 yards per pass attempt – fourth worst in the NFL.
Only eight teams have given up more passing yards per game than Baltimore through the season’s first few weeks, and Newton has posted .44 fantasy points per attempt (FPAT) in seven quarters of action in 2014. I can almost guarantee that daily gamers will fade Newton in Week 4, making him a premiere against-the-grain play at a nice value after a $300 cut in his DraftKings price.
Running Backs
Alfred Morris ($5,500) vs. New York Giants
There are now 18 running backs priced above Morris on DraftKings. I find that amazing.
Morris saw his price cut by $600 after a lackluster Week 3 shootout that saw him phased out of a pass-heavy attack. Morris, fantasy’s No. 9 running back through three weeks, is averaging .66 fantasy points per touch as Washington gets set to play a Giants defense that has held passers in check. That opens an opportunity for Morris.
Teams are averaging 27.8 rushing attempts per game against Big Blue – a number I don’t think is unreasonable for this Thursday night tilt. It’s also worth noting that the Giants are allowing 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game; only the Falcons and Packers give up more through three weeks. Morris is your guy if you’re looking to go cheap and contrarian at running back this week.
Eddie Lacy ($5,600) at Chicago Bears
Lacy’s nightmarish Week 3 performance against a frighteningly tough Detroit front seven led to a $300 salary drop on DraftKings. That makes him the site’s 16th priciest back.
Lacy, despite a horrible start to the year, is still among the most elusive runners – according to Pro Football Focus. Chicago is allowing 144.7 rushing yards per game (on 28.7 rush attempts). Only six teams give up more on the ground. This is no time to fade Lacy in DraftKings tournaments.
Wide Receivers
De’Andre Hopkins ($4,800) vs. Buffalo Bills
There very well may be a changing of the pass catching guard happening in Houston. The best part: DraftKings has slashed the salary of the guy subsuming the primary role in the Texans’ passing attack.
Hopkins’ salary dropped by $600 after Week 3, which saw him catch six passes for 116 yards despite having a marvelous one-handed 53-yard grab taken away on a penalty. Hopkins is now priced as a WR3 and he may be a borderline WR1 in a matchup against a middling Buffalo coverage unit.
Hopkins, who is $200 cheaper than Joe McKnight, is a screaming value in tournaments and cash games.
Vincent Jackson ($5,100) at Pittsburgh Steelers
I see Jackson as the best fit for this space since the season’s opening week. Josh McCown’s mangled right thumb might be the best thing that’s ever happened to VJax’s fantasy value. Jackson will go up against a Pittsburgh secondary that lost top cover man Ike Taylor after his DraftKings salary fell by $700.
New Tampa quarterback Mike Glennon targeted Jackson heavily in 2013 and looked his way often (nine times) once again when he came in for McCown last week in Atlanta. The Bucs might try to pound away on the ground, but with a sieve of a defense, they’ll likely not have that luxury against a Steelers offense that picked apart a very good Carolina defense one week ago.
Tight End
Zach Ertz ($4,000) at San Francisco 49ers
It’s fairly rare to be able to exploit daily fantasy market shifts in a game as high-scoring as the Eagles-49ers tilt could be. We have that chance with Ertz, whose DraftKings price took a $1,200 hit. He’s now the site’s 15th most expensive tight end. Owen Daniels’ price is $100 higher.
The Niners are allowing 4.6 receptions to tight ends through three weeks, though they have allowed the sixth fewest fantasy points against the position. It’s not as if Ertz – who caught two passes for 14 yards in Week 3 – is being phased out of the Philly offense. He ran a very healthy 30 pass routes last week against Washington – that’s plenty for consistent production over the long haul.
Ertz is a premiere value on DraftKings and an ideal play in tournaments this week.